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ALPHA AI Master by FDG

Equity · Stocks · Started Aug 2019

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
8.7%
Max Drawdown
42.7%
Trades
762
Win Trades
57.1%
Profit Factor
1.30
Win Months
60.9%
Subscribe $49/mo

About this strategy

This is a STOCKS ONLY Strategy. No derivatives or FX positions are taken. Daily evaluation defines if it’s necessary to trade, at all, Trades are submitted normally near the end of the US session. A proprietary method continuously monitors Portfolio´s Health. If Portfolio Risk metrics are met, leverage may be reduced or increased. 1:1. Leverage is usually normal. All investment decisions are automated, relying on human behavior only for the Tracker Origination and overall Risk Assessment.

Hedged Equity Event-driven

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20191.5-3.33.77.5-1.47.9
2020-0.3-0.3-0.36.82.2-1.94.32.59.23.70.90.129.8
202113.91.8-2.57.51.7-1.98.72.5-3.414.91.21.754.2
2022-23.637.22.2-17.5-7.0-10.24.5-6.7-6.34.80.30.9-28.5
2023-10.60.58.11.90.11.010.2-6.8-7.90.3-0.2-0.2-5.5
2024-0.22.00.1-3.25.11.6-2.31.82.3-1.41.3-1.45.5
2025-0.20.3-2.4-1.22.40.3-0.10.10.31.5-2.20.8-0.6
20262.61.3-3.15.410.910.1-0.5-5.1-3.50.518.5

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began8/19/2019
Suggested Minimum Capital$15,000
Age87 months
C2 Rank301
What it tradesStocks
# Trades762
# Profitable435
% Profitable57.1%
Avg trade duration17.6 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown42.7%
drawdown periodMarch 25, 2022 - Feb 02, 2023
Annual Return (Compounded)8.7%
Avg win$274
Avg loss$279

Ratios

W:L ratio1.33
Sharpe Ratio0.37
Sortino Ratio0.61
Calmar Ratio0.39

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.19
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life162.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-81.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)8.7%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)11.4%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity30.4%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.6%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss62.0%
Chance of 20% account loss27.5%
Chance of 30% account loss12.0%
Chance of 40% account loss1.5%
Chance of 50% account loss0.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated89.5%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)317
C2 Score301
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$279
Avg Win$274
# Winners435
Sum Trade PL (losers)$91,318
Sum Trade PL (winners)$119,379
Num Months Winners53
# Losers327
% Winners57.1%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct867

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table87

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)25272.88
Avg Position Time (hrs)421.21
Avg Trade Length17.60
Last Trade Ago0

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)0.82
Daily leverage (max)3.98

Regression

Alpha0.02
Beta0.18
Treynor Index0.12

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades8.12
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.96
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.51
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.43
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.12

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.14
SD0.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.58
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.58
df66
t1.38
p0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.42
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.26
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.41
Sortino ratio1.15
Upside Potential Ratio2.65
Upside part of mean0.32
Downside part of mean-0.18
Upside SD0.20
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms39
N negative terms28
N of observations67
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.14
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.23
Covariance0.01
r0.21
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.23
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.10
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error65
t(b)1.72
p(b)0.04
t(a)0.97
p(a)0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.30
Treynor index (mean / b)0.59
Jensen alpha (a)0.10
Mean0.11
SD0.22
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.49
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.49
df66
t1.17
p0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.33
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.34
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.32
Sortino ratio0.88
Upside Potential Ratio2.36
Upside part of mean0.30
Downside part of mean-0.19
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms39
N negative terms28
N of observations67
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0.11
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.22
Covariance0.01
r0.22
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.23
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.08
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error65
t(b)1.80
p(b)0.04
t(a)0.82
p(a)0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.27
Treynor index (mean / b)0.49
Jensen alpha (a)0.08
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean0.13
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.67
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.67
df1473
t1.59
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.50
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.50
Sortino ratio1.11
Upside Potential Ratio7.85
Upside part of mean0.89
Downside part of mean-0.76
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms696
N negative terms778
N of observations1474
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.13
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance0.01
r0.19
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.17
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.10
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error1472
t(b)7.48
p(b)0.40
t(a)1.26
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.25
Treynor index (mean / b)0.75
Jensen alpha (a)0.10
Mean0.11
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.59
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.59
df1473
t1.39
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.41
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.24
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.41
Sortino ratio0.94
Upside Potential Ratio7.64
Upside part of mean0.88
Downside part of mean-0.77
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms696
N negative terms778
N of observations1474
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0.11
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance0.01
r0.19
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.16
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.09
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error1472
t(b)7.51
p(b)0.40
t(a)1.11
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.24
Treynor index (mean / b)0.66
Jensen alpha (a)0.09
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.34
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.77
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.76
df130
t1.25
p0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.54
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.02
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.54
Sortino ratio3.28
Upside Potential Ratio11.05
Upside part of mean1.13
Downside part of mean-0.79
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms75
N negative terms56
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.53
Mean of criterion0.34
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance0.02
r0.46
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.33
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.16
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error129
t(b)5.89
p(b)0.22
t(a)0.67
p(a)0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.64
Treynor index (mean / b)1.03
Jensen alpha (a)0.16
Mean0.32
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.69
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.68
df130
t1.19
p0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.46
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.10
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.46
Sortino ratio3.08
Upside Potential Ratio10.83
Upside part of mean1.12
Downside part of mean-0.80
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms75
N negative terms56
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.49
Mean of criterion0.32
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance0.02
r0.46
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.33
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.16
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error129
t(b)5.84
p(b)0.22
t(a)0.66
p(a)0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.21
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.63
Treynor index (mean / b)0.98
Jensen alpha (a)0.16
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations67
Minimum0.83
Quartile 10.99
Median1.01
Quartile 31.04
Maximum1.31
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.09
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.01
Mean of outliers low0.83
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.22
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.08
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.06
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.19
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.09
Number of observations1474
Minimum0.93
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.15
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low90
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high115
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.40
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.21
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.97
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.05
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low4
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high9
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.12
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.11
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations6
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.32
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.17
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.32
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations47
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.38
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.11
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high0.19
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.59
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.31
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.70
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.36
Number of observations8
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.03
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.08
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.07
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-408127520
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)314
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.8%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.21
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.15
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.47
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.86
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.28
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.21
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.15
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.39
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.34
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal6.39
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.38
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.41
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)5.15
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs5.73
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal18.34

Trading record

Placed 1285 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
COPX long15Sep 4, 2026Sep 23, 2026($54)
YCS long16Sep 21, 2026Sep 22, 2026($1)
BIL long9Sep 17, 2026Sep 18, 2026($0)
DBJP long124Jul 8, 2026Sep 17, 2026$122
YCS long76Aug 11, 2026Sep 16, 2026($129)
USCI long19Sep 3, 2026Sep 11, 2026$44
WELL long12Aug 26, 2026Sep 8, 2026($53)
QUS long7Aug 26, 2026Sep 3, 2026$1
USMV long32Aug 6, 2026Aug 31, 2026$35
FER long101Aug 6, 2026Aug 26, 2026($409)
BIL long7Aug 6, 2026Aug 26, 2026$1
SPG long78Aug 12, 2026Aug 26, 2026($249)
ASC long146Aug 6, 2026Aug 26, 2026($1)
FTAI long15Aug 21, 2026Aug 24, 2026($170)
DIA long6Aug 6, 2026Aug 20, 2026($61)
TNGX long680Aug 6, 2026Aug 11, 2026($1,753)
SPG long52Aug 6, 2026Aug 7, 2026$33
ASC long80Jul 8, 2026Jul 30, 2026$94
DELL long5Jul 16, 2026Jul 28, 2026$7
FER long23Jul 22, 2026Jul 28, 2026($52)
USFD long11Jul 9, 2026Jul 28, 2026$21
VTR long131Jul 8, 2026Jul 28, 2026$730
CTRE long349Jul 8, 2026Jul 24, 2026$625
LQDA long112Jul 8, 2026Jul 22, 2026$777
SHV long14Jul 9, 2026Jul 21, 2026$1
PWV long22Jul 8, 2026Jul 17, 2026$21

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.