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Aduna Cap Hedge

Equity · Stocks · Started Jun 2020

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-10.5%
Max Drawdown
71.6%
Trades
100
Win Trades
53.0%
Profit Factor
1.50
Win Months
57.3%

About this strategy

This strategy will look for the maximum return and will carry with it the most volatility out of our strategies.

Hedged Equity

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2020-7.95.17.4-14.10.338.320.849.6
20210.214.010.411.0-6.92.23.04.5-10.216.0-3.33.048.7
2022-19.1-6.5-0.5-20.5-4.6-19.715.4-4.6-18.23.24.5-5.3-57.8
20238.8-4.40.3-5.6-25.44.32.4-11.927.6-7.47.58.7-4.4
2024-3.03.60.4-5.76.8-3.50.12.60.012.0-1.85.0
20254.30.3-4.6-5.08.3-1.57.41.75.32.55.82.429.3
20261.0-4.3-4.38.011.6-6.4-0.04.3-0.4

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began6/20/2020
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age76 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades100
# Profitable53
% Profitable53.0%
Avg trade duration421.8 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown71.6%
drawdown periodNov 12, 2021 - Jan 30, 2023
Annual Return (Compounded)-10.5%
Avg win$390
Avg loss$302

Ratios

W:L ratio1.54
Sharpe Ratio0.21
Sortino Ratio0.32
Calmar Ratio0.25

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.47
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life149.3%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-75.7%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-10.5%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)7.6%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity78.3%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss88.0%
Chance of 20% account loss74.0%
Chance of 30% account loss59.0%
Chance of 40% account loss41.5%
Chance of 50% account loss20.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)8.5%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)2.5%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$302
Avg Win$390
# Winners53
Sum Trade PL (losers)$14,209
Sum Trade PL (winners)$20,665
Num Months Winners43
# Losers47
% Winners53.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct1210

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table76

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)607442.25
Avg Position Time (hrs)10124.04
Avg Trade Length421.80
Last Trade Ago1252

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)2.05
Daily leverage (max)3.22

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta1.08
Treynor Index0.02

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.04
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.03
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades6.17
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.09
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.48
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.26
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.27

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.08
SD0.36
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.23
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.22
df32
t0.38
p0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.96
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.41
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.96
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.41
Sortino ratio0.36
Upside Potential Ratio2.21
Upside part of mean0.50
Downside part of mean-0.42
Upside SD0.27
Downside SD0.23
N nonnegative terms19
N negative terms14
N of observations33
Mean of predictor0.08
Mean of criterion0.08
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.36
Covariance0.04
r0.75
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.70
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.06
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error31
t(b)6.36
p(b)0
t(a)-0.38
p(a)0.65
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.24
Treynor index (mean / b)0.05
Jensen alpha (a)-0.06
Mean0.02
SD0.35
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.06
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.06
df32
t0.10
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.24
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.12
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.24
Sortino ratio0.09
Upside Potential Ratio1.90
Upside part of mean0.47
Downside part of mean-0.44
Upside SD0.25
Downside SD0.24
N nonnegative terms19
N negative terms14
N of observations33
Mean of predictor0.07
Mean of criterion0.02
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.35
Covariance0.04
r0.78
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.73
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.10
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error31
t(b)7.02
p(b)0
t(a)-0.72
p(a)0.76
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.18
Treynor index (mean / b)0.01
Jensen alpha (a)-0.10
VaR(95%)0.15
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.19
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.14
Mean0.02
SD0.37
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.05
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.05
df740
t0.09
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.22
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.11
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.22
Sortino ratio0.07
Upside Potential Ratio7.66
Upside part of mean2.06
Downside part of mean-2.04
Upside SD0.26
Downside SD0.27
N nonnegative terms382
N negative terms359
N of observations741
Mean of predictor0.12
Mean of criterion0.02
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.37
Covariance0.04
r0.50
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.98
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0.10
DF error739
t(b)15.64
p(b)0
t(a)-0.52
p(a)0.70
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.85
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.28
Treynor index (mean / b)0.02
Jensen alpha (a)-0.10
Mean-0.05
SD0.38
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.14
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.14
df740
t-0.23
p0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.03
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.30
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.03
Sortino ratio-0.18
Upside Potential Ratio7.25
Upside part of mean2.03
Downside part of mean-2.08
Upside SD0.25
Downside SD0.28
N nonnegative terms382
N negative terms359
N of observations741
Mean of predictor0.10
Mean of criterion-0.05
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.38
Covariance0.04
r0.49
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.97
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.15
Mean Square Error0.11
DF error739
t(b)15.42
p(b)0
t(a)-0.78
p(a)0.78
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.85
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.23
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.05
Jensen alpha (a)-0.15
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean-0.38
SD0.34
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.13
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.12
df130
t-0.80
p0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.90
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.65
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.90
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.65
Sortino ratio-1.23
Upside Potential Ratio3.21
Upside part of mean0.99
Downside part of mean-1.37
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.31
N nonnegative terms64
N negative terms67
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.32
Mean of criterion-0.38
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.34
Covariance0.02
r0.26
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.43
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.52
Mean Square Error0.11
DF error129
t(b)3.04
p(b)0.34
t(a)-1.12
p(a)0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.71
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.40
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.89
Jensen alpha (a)-0.52
Mean-0.44
SD0.36
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.22
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.21
df130
t-0.86
p0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.99
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.56
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.99
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.56
Sortino ratio-1.31
Upside Potential Ratio2.90
Upside part of mean0.98
Downside part of mean-1.43
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.34
N nonnegative terms64
N negative terms67
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.30
Mean of criterion-0.44
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.36
Covariance0.02
r0.23
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.42
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.57
Mean Square Error0.13
DF error129
t(b)2.72
p(b)0.35
t(a)-1.13
p(a)0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.72
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.57
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.43
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.06
Jensen alpha (a)-0.57
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations33
Minimum0.80
Quartile 10.95
Median1.01
Quartile 31.05
Maximum1.24
Mean of quarter 10.89
Mean of quarter 20.98
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41.14
Inter Quartile Range0.10
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.80
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.24
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.17
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.14
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.20
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.15
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.19
Number of observations741
Minimum0.80
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.14
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low21
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.93
Number of outliers high25
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.06
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.22
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.04
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.09
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations131
Minimum0.80
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low5
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.93
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.63
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.05
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.77
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations4
Minimum0.05
Quartile 10.07
Median0.09
Quartile 30.20
Maximum0.53
Mean of quarter 10.05
Mean of quarter 20.08
Mean of quarter 30.10
Mean of quarter 40.53
Inter Quartile Range0.14
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.25
Mean of outliers high0.53
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations18
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.03
Quartile 30.14
Maximum0.63
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.09
Mean of quarter 40.26
Inter Quartile Range0.13
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high0.63
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.58
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.32
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.76
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.95
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.32
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations9
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.28
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.17
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high0.28
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.77
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.18
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.82
Extreme Value Index (regression method)4.99
VaR(95%) (regression method)1.46
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-351995008
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)444
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.8%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.05
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.05
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.09
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.09
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.27
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.02
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.02
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.04
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.09
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.48
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.38
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.34
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.22
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-2.03
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-7.25

Trading record

Placed 149 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
QQC long108Nov 26, 2021Apr 28, 2023($1,034)
CSCO long5Feb 4, 2022Apr 11, 2023($36)
IBUY long65Jan 21, 2022Oct 28, 2022($1,008)
SPOT long1Feb 8, 2022Oct 28, 2022($83)
SPBC long50Feb 24, 2022Oct 28, 2022($164)
LTRY long200Jul 27, 2022Sep 29, 2022($102)
SMG long20Jan 26, 2022Jun 30, 2022($1,045)
META long1Feb 4, 2022Jun 30, 2022($73)
VFH long79Nov 1, 2021Jun 27, 2022($912)
TM long3Feb 1, 2022Jun 27, 2022($117)
DVN long5Feb 4, 2022Apr 26, 2022$22
SDS long63Mar 29, 2022Apr 22, 2022$297
SUBZ long150Jan 27, 2022Apr 6, 2022($58)
TQQQ long10Feb 17, 2022Mar 29, 2022$72
KEN long3Feb 1, 2022Mar 28, 2022$27
IWIN long13Feb 7, 2022Mar 7, 2022$12
WHR long1Feb 7, 2022Mar 7, 2022($8)
SPBC long105Jan 31, 2022Feb 22, 2022($113)
ABT long2Feb 4, 2022Feb 11, 2022($8)
XOUT long7Dec 23, 2021Feb 11, 2022($33)
SDIG long15Feb 10, 2022Feb 11, 2022($6)
AFG long3Feb 1, 2022Feb 11, 2022$15
SH long50Feb 9, 2022Feb 10, 2022$9
DIS long1Dec 31, 2021Jan 31, 2022($14)
GOOGL long1Jan 7, 2022Jan 24, 2022($222)
SPBC long240Sep 2, 2021Jan 24, 2022($796)
FAN long15Jun 4, 2021Jan 24, 2022($50)
QQD long75Sep 2, 2021Dec 15, 2021$8
GLD long10May 19, 2021Dec 15, 2021($98)
QQQ long9Aug 2, 2021Sep 2, 2021$136

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.