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Astron I

Futures · Futures · Started Jul 2020

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
8.9%
Max Drawdown
32.2%
Trades
38
Win Trades
57.9%
Profit Factor
4
Win Months
13.3%

Momentum Macro / Fundamental

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20207.713.34.4-0.0-0.04.132.6
2021-1.13.5-1.14.6-1.13.91.72.0-0.814.20.00.028.1
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began7/7/2020
Suggested Minimum Capital$40,000
Age75 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades38
# Profitable22
% Profitable57.9%
Avg trade duration6.2 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown32.2%
drawdown periodOct 03, 2021 - Oct 04, 2021
Annual Return (Compounded)8.9%
Avg win$1,770
Avg loss$610

Ratios

W:L ratio3.99
Sharpe Ratio0.54
Sortino Ratio0.88
Calmar Ratio1.35

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.11
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life142.3%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-74.2%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)8.9%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)9.2%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.2%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss32.5%
Chance of 20% account loss13.0%
Chance of 30% account loss1.5%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated85.4%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$610
Avg Win$1,770
# Winners22
Sum Trade PL (losers)$9,754
Sum Trade PL (winners)$38,932
Num Months Winners10
# Losers16
% Winners57.9%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table75

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)8895.95
Avg Position Time (hrs)148.27
Avg Trade Length6.20
Last Trade Ago1785

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)2.62
Daily leverage (max)15.67

Regression

Alpha0.02
Beta0.07
Treynor Index0.27

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.03
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades1.66
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-1.63
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats89.32
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats47.72
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.78
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.85
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.60

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.17
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.93
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.91
df36
t1.64
p0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.07
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.22
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.05
Sortino ratio2.90
Upside Potential Ratio4.01
Upside part of mean0.23
Downside part of mean-0.06
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms11
N negative terms26
N of observations37
Mean of predictor0.29
Mean of criterion0.17
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance0.01
r0.21
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.17
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.12
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error35
t(b)1.28
p(b)0.10
t(a)1.08
p(a)0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.33
Treynor index (mean / b)0.95
Jensen alpha (a)0.12
Mean0.15
SD0.16
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.91
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.89
df36
t1.60
p0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.04
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.24
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.03
Sortino ratio2.53
Upside Potential Ratio3.63
Upside part of mean0.22
Downside part of mean-0.07
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.06
N nonnegative terms11
N negative terms26
N of observations37
Mean of predictor0.26
Mean of criterion0.15
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.16
Covariance0.01
r0.22
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.17
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.11
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error35
t(b)1.35
p(b)0.09
t(a)1.07
p(a)0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.31
Treynor index (mean / b)0.87
Jensen alpha (a)0.11
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean0.16
SD0.16
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.04
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.04
df807
t1.83
p0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.16
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.07
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.16
Sortino ratio1.78
Upside Potential Ratio4.25
Upside part of mean0.39
Downside part of mean-0.23
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms125
N negative terms683
N of observations808
Mean of predictor0.29
Mean of criterion0.16
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.16
Covariance0.00
r0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.14
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error806
t(b)3.05
p(b)0.00
t(a)1.59
p(a)0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.31
Treynor index (mean / b)2.14
Jensen alpha (a)0.14
Mean0.15
SD0.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.98
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.98
df807
t1.73
p0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.10
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.13
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.10
Sortino ratio1.56
Upside Potential Ratio3.95
Upside part of mean0.38
Downside part of mean-0.23
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms125
N negative terms683
N of observations808
Mean of predictor0.26
Mean of criterion0.15
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.15
Covariance0.00
r0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.13
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error806
t(b)3.12
p(b)0.00
t(a)1.50
p(a)0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.30
Treynor index (mean / b)1.97
Jensen alpha (a)0.13
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.10
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.06
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6694644444299264
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)8.10765926839233e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations37
Minimum0.91
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.25
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.08
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.94
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.15
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.44
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.10
Number of observations808
Minimum0.86
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.18
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low78
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high126
Percentage of outliers high0.16
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.64
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.42
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.02
Median0.04
Quartile 30.06
Maximum0.09
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.04
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.09
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations17
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.14
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.09
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.12
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.17
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.08
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.04
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.17
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-418733568
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)1
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.24
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.20
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.21
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.21
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.38
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.24
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.20
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.35
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.24
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal10.43
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 27 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
MNQ Z1long2Oct 1, 2021Oct 19, 2021$2,495
MES Z1long3Oct 1, 2021Oct 19, 2021$2,422
NQ Z1long2Oct 1, 2021Oct 7, 2021$3,691
MNQ Z1long2Sep 23, 2021Sep 27, 2021($527)
MES Z1long3Sep 23, 2021Sep 27, 2021($74)
NQ Z1long2Sep 24, 2021Sep 24, 2021($17)
NQ Z1long2Sep 23, 2021Sep 23, 2021$282
MES U1long6Aug 30, 2021Sep 3, 2021$83
MES U1long6Aug 23, 2021Aug 26, 2021($322)
MES U1long6Aug 4, 2021Aug 13, 2021$1,906
MES U1long6Jul 28, 2021Aug 2, 2021($262)
MES U1long6Jul 21, 2021Jul 26, 2021$1,801
MES U1long6Jul 9, 2021Jul 15, 2021($420)
MES U1long6Jul 2, 2021Jul 6, 2021($322)
MES U1long6Jun 23, 2021Jun 30, 2021$1,681
MES M1long5Jun 3, 2021Jun 9, 2021$769
MES M1long5May 24, 2021Jun 1, 2021($44)
ES M1long2May 25, 2021May 25, 2021$134
MES M1long5May 18, 2021May 19, 2021($212)
ES M1long0.64May 5, 2021May 11, 2021($581)
ES M1long0.64Apr 27, 2021Apr 30, 2021$43
ES M1long0.64Apr 21, 2021Apr 22, 2021($909)
ES M1long0.64Apr 1, 2021Apr 20, 2021$3,371
ES M1long0.64Mar 29, 2021Mar 31, 2021$115
ES M1long0.64Mar 15, 2021Mar 16, 2021($21)
ES H1long0.64Mar 9, 2021Mar 10, 2021$1,091
ES H1long0.64Mar 2, 2021Mar 3, 2021($1,733)
ES H1long0.64Feb 24, 2021Feb 25, 2021($3,269)
ES H1long0.32Feb 11, 2021Feb 16, 2021$373
ES H1long0.64Feb 1, 2021Feb 8, 2021$4,747

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.