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Stocks for Div yield

Equity · Stocks, Options · Started Jul 2020

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
5.1%
Max Drawdown
15.8%
Trades
280
Win Trades
51.8%
Profit Factor
3.40
Win Months
55.4%

About this strategy

This strategy will invest in over-sold stocks with upward momentum that have dividend yields above 3% and relatively low P/E ratios.

Manual trailing stops are used to protect profitable positions. Stops are updated regularly as the stock rises. Stocks will sell off when they hit the stop during a market pullback.

Please note this strategy invests in conservative, high yielding stocks. Therefore it is unlikely to beat the S&P 500 on a regular basis. However, the strategy has produced above average returns with the combination of capital gains and dividend yield. This strategy is best suited for those looking for a conservative approach to a portion of their portfolio.

This strategy buys and holds positions for 4 to 6 months or longer. The number of trades is minimal. Therefore, it is best suited for patient investors

Non-hedged Equity Trend-following

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2020-0.00.5-1.0-0.52.51.53.0
20211.03.35.42.21.30.4-0.10.90.30.70.81.919.6
2022-1.5-0.30.8-0.70.3-3.70.2-2.5-4.10.82.7-2.0-9.8
20234.2-1.7-0.5-0.6-2.92.20.7-0.70.3-0.51.41.22.9
20240.0-0.4-0.9-1.20.81.20.2-1.61.0-0.4-0.6-1.2-3.0
20251.0-0.3-0.8-2.0-1.83.61.41.71.73.1-0.74.812.0
20263.27.31.622.50.0-1.2-0.0-1.647.9

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began7/10/2020
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age75 months
What it tradesStocks, Options
# Trades280
# Profitable145
% Profitable51.8%
Avg trade duration93.9 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown15.8%
drawdown periodJan 14, 2022 - Sept 23, 2022
Annual Return (Compounded)5.1%
Avg win$807
Avg loss$303

Ratios

W:L ratio3.41
Sharpe Ratio0.62
Sortino Ratio1.35
Calmar Ratio1.92

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.30
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life139.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-12.7%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)5.1%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)10.5%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity9.9%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.3%
Short Options - Percent Covered30.4%
Percent Trades Stocks0.7%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss69.5%
Chance of 20% account loss31.0%
Chance of 30% account loss10.0%
Chance of 40% account loss1.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)482
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)285

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$303
Avg Win$807
# Winners145
Sum Trade PL (losers)$40,961
Sum Trade PL (winners)$116,967
Num Months Winners43
# Losers135
% Winners51.8%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct10021

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table75

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)135210.77
Avg Position Time (hrs)2253.51
Avg Trade Length93.90
Last Trade Ago1095

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)0.54
Daily leverage (max)1.20

Regression

Alpha0.02
Beta0.21
Treynor Index0.11

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades1.11
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.14
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.24
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.34
Hold-and-Hope Ratio1.31

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.03
SD0.07
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.37
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.36
df28
t0.58
p0.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.90
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.63
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.90
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.63
Sortino ratio0.55
Upside Potential Ratio2.25
Upside part of mean0.11
Downside part of mean-0.08
Upside SD0.05
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms17
N negative terms12
N of observations29
Mean of predictor0.06
Mean of criterion0.03
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.07
Covariance0.01
r0.70
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.33
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.01
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error27
t(b)5.05
p(b)0.00
t(a)0.19
p(a)0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.07
Treynor index (mean / b)0.08
Jensen alpha (a)0.01
Mean0.02
SD0.07
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.34
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.33
df28
t0.52
p0.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.93
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.60
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.94
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.59
Sortino ratio0.49
Upside Potential Ratio2.18
Upside part of mean0.11
Downside part of mean-0.08
Upside SD0.05
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms17
N negative terms12
N of observations29
Mean of predictor0.05
Mean of criterion0.02
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.07
Covariance0.01
r0.71
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.33
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.01
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error27
t(b)5.24
p(b)0.00
t(a)0.23
p(a)0.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.07
Treynor index (mean / b)0.07
Jensen alpha (a)0.01
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean0.04
SD0.06
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.58
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.58
df653
t0.92
p0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.66
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.82
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.66
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.82
Sortino ratio0.82
Upside Potential Ratio7.94
Upside part of mean0.34
Downside part of mean-0.31
Upside SD0.04
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms340
N negative terms314
N of observations654
Mean of predictor0.08
Mean of criterion0.04
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.06
Covariance0.00
r0.37
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.12
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.12
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error652
t(b)10.23
p(b)0
t(a)0.71
p(a)0.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.10
Treynor index (mean / b)0.30
Jensen alpha (a)0.03
Mean0.03
SD0.06
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.55
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.55
df653
t0.87
p0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.79
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.69
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.79
Sortino ratio0.77
Upside Potential Ratio7.88
Upside part of mean0.34
Downside part of mean-0.31
Upside SD0.04
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms340
N negative terms314
N of observations654
Mean of predictor0.07
Mean of criterion0.03
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.06
Covariance0.00
r0.37
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.12
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.03
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error652
t(b)10.22
p(b)0
t(a)0.72
p(a)0.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.10
Treynor index (mean / b)0.28
Jensen alpha (a)0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.05
SD0.08
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.72
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.71
df130
t-0.51
p0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.06
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.49
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.06
Sortino ratio-1.01
Upside Potential Ratio7.56
Upside part of mean0.41
Downside part of mean-0.47
Upside SD0.05
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms58
N negative terms73
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.03
Mean of criterion-0.05
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.08
Covariance0.01
r0.56
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.18
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.06
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)7.68
p(b)0.16
t(a)-0.67
p(a)0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.12
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.30
Jensen alpha (a)-0.06
Mean-0.06
SD0.08
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.76
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.75
df130
t-0.53
p0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.02
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.52
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.02
Sortino ratio-1.06
Upside Potential Ratio7.50
Upside part of mean0.41
Downside part of mean-0.47
Upside SD0.05
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms58
N negative terms73
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.00
Mean of criterion-0.06
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.08
Covariance0.01
r0.56
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.18
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.06
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)7.65
p(b)0.16
t(a)-0.65
p(a)0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.14
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.12
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.06
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations29
Minimum0.95
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.59
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.06
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.79
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.08
Number of observations654
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.02
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low32
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high18
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.38
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.11
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.02
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.06
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.16
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations5
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.10
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.10
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.10
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations28
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.12
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.03
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high0.12
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.69
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.12
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.74
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations4
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.07
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.00
Mean of quarter 40.07
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.25
Mean of outliers high0.07
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-314495680
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)252
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.8%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.06
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.05
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.52
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.52
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.35
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.07
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.06
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.55
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.81
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal8.36
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.03
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.03
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.41
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.41
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-2.96

Trading record

Placed 239 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
STX2315U57.5 long1Jan 20, 2023Sep 16, 2023($731)
DOW2316R40 short1Sep 22, 2022Jun 17, 2023$339
TSM2321P70 long1Dec 27, 2022Apr 22, 2023($396)
NRG2317O32 long1Dec 19, 2022Mar 18, 2023($236)
INTC2317O25 long1Dec 19, 2022Mar 18, 2023($131)
SMG2317O45 long1Dec 19, 2022Mar 18, 2023($381)
SU2317O29 long1Dec 19, 2022Mar 18, 2023($216)
SMG2317C70 short1Jan 10, 2023Mar 18, 2023$139
TGT2317N120 short1Dec 23, 2022Feb 18, 2023$155
SPLB long100Jan 17, 2023Feb 14, 2023($80)
PHB long144Jan 6, 2023Feb 10, 2023($2)
TSM2327A80 short1Dec 27, 2022Jan 28, 2023$129
TSM long100Dec 24, 2022Jan 28, 2023$498
WBA2320M30 long1Oct 10, 2022Jan 21, 2023($213)
GOOGL2320M80 short1Dec 20, 2022Jan 21, 2023$99
IP2320M32.5 long1Sep 23, 2022Jan 21, 2023($251)
STX2320M60 long1Sep 23, 2022Jan 20, 2023($479)
SPHD long55Dec 28, 2022Jan 18, 2023$5
META2313M100 short1Dec 8, 2022Jan 6, 2023$156
TSM2223X75 short1Nov 18, 2022Dec 24, 2022$128
STX2216L72.5 short1Sep 26, 2022Dec 17, 2022$66
INTC2216X25 long1Oct 10, 2022Dec 17, 2022($174)
SMG2216X40 long1Oct 21, 2022Dec 17, 2022($301)
NRG2216L47 short1Oct 26, 2022Dec 17, 2022$89
XLU long100Nov 22, 2022Dec 16, 2022($2)
SU2216X31 long1Oct 10, 2022Dec 16, 2022($152)
META2202X80 short1Oct 27, 2022Dec 3, 2022$99
GOOGL2202X80 long1Nov 3, 2022Dec 3, 2022($165)
GOOGL2202X85 short1Oct 31, 2022Dec 3, 2022$99
HDGE long165Sep 23, 2022Oct 6, 2022($354)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.