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Astron II

Equity · Futures · Started Jul 2020

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
50.3%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
44
Win Trades
63.6%
Profit Factor
23.50
Win Months
17.9%

Short-term Reversal

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2020-2.724.010.1-0.0-0.04.939.2
20216.1-2.9-4.34.61.67.23.6-0.0-0.111.74.1-522.4-670.6
2022-0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.0-244.55.31.6-254.5

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began7/20/2020
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age75 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades44
# Profitable28
% Profitable63.6%
Avg trade duration45.1 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodJuly 21, 2020 - Jan 13, 2022
Annual Return (Compounded)50.3%
Avg win$42,129
Avg loss$3,136

Ratios

W:L ratio23.51
Sharpe Ratio-0.57
Sortino Ratio-0.57
Calmar Ratio2.58

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.05
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life133.3%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)991.5%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)50.3%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.5%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)50.2%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity1.3%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated81.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$3,136
Avg Win$42,129
# Winners28
Sum Trade PL (losers)$50,180
Sum Trade PL (winners)$1,179,602
Num Months Winners10
# Losers16
% Winners63.6%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table18

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)64990.58
Avg Position Time (hrs)1083.18
Avg Trade Length45.10
Last Trade Ago1670

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)2.61
Daily leverage (max)10.51

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.65
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.04
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.05
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades7.66
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-1.47
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats90.04
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats37.02
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.72
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.42
Hold-and-Hope Ratio5.04

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.28
SD0.82
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.34
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.33
df22
t-0.47
p0.68
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.76
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.08
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.75
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.09
Sortino ratio-0.37
Upside Potential Ratio0.68
Upside part of mean0.51
Downside part of mean-0.79
Upside SD0.31
Downside SD0.75
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms14
N of observations23
Mean of predictor0.39
Mean of criterion-0.28
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion0.82
Covariance0.04
r0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.43
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.45
Mean Square Error0.69
DF error21
t(b)0.74
p(b)0.40
t(a)-0.70
p(a)0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.77
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.62
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.78
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.89
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.66
Jensen alpha (a)-0.45
Mean-6.05
SD8.65
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.70
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.68
df22
t-0.97
p0.83
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.74
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.11
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.75
Sortino ratio-0.70
Upside Potential Ratio0.05
Upside part of mean0.47
Downside part of mean-6.53
Upside SD0.27
Downside SD8.63
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms14
N of observations23
Mean of predictor0.34
Mean of criterion-6.05
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion8.65
Covariance0.41
r0.17
b (slope, estimate of beta)5.20
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-7.84
Mean Square Error76.14
DF error21
t(b)0.78
p(b)0.39
t(a)-1.17
p(a)0.66
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-8.66
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta19.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-21.79
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha6.11
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.16
Jensen alpha (a)-7.84
VaR(95%)0.99
Expected Shortfall on VaR1.00
VaR(95%)0.17
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.37
Mean642604.19
SD894797.94
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.72
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.72
df507
t1
p0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.13
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.69
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.13
Sortino ratio867055.94
Upside Potential Ratio867057.75
Upside part of mean642605.50
Downside part of mean-1.32
Upside SD894797.94
Downside SD0.74
N nonnegative terms128
N negative terms380
N of observations508
Mean of predictor0.46
Mean of criterion642604.19
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion894797.94
Covariance2494.55
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)27465.85
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)629986.44
Mean Square Error802177089536
DF error506
t(b)0.21
p(b)0.42
t(a)0.98
p(a)0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-231844.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta286776.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-639310.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1899283.50
Treynor index (mean / b)23.40
Jensen alpha (a)629986.44
Mean1.25
SD13.25
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.09
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.09
df507
t0.13
p0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.50
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.31
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.50
Sortino ratio0.15
Upside Potential Ratio0.96
Upside part of mean8.22
Downside part of mean-6.97
Upside SD10.08
Downside SD8.57
N nonnegative terms128
N negative terms380
N of observations508
Mean of predictor0.42
Mean of criterion1.25
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion13.25
Covariance0.07
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.79
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.92
Mean Square Error175.75
DF error506
t(b)0.39
p(b)0.35
t(a)0.10
p(a)0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-3.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta4.71
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-17.86
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha19.70
Treynor index (mean / b)1.58
Jensen alpha (a)0.92
VaR(95%)0.74
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.81
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean2491932
SD1762062
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.41
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.41
df130
t1
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.19
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.37
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.18
Sortino ratio21579484
Upside Potential Ratio21579486
Upside part of mean2491932.25
Downside part of mean-0.23
Upside SD1762062
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms3
N negative terms128
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.25
Mean of criterion2491932
SD of predictor0.53
SD of criterion1762062
Covariance2112.17
r0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)7539.43
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)2482477
Mean Square Error3128915132416
DF error129
t(b)0.03
p(b)0.50
t(a)0.98
p(a)0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-572385.50
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta587464.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2520080.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha7485034
Treynor index (mean / b)330.52
Jensen alpha (a)2482477
Mean28.02
SD19.85
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.41
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.40
df130
t1.00
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.19
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.37
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.18
Sortino ratio233.72
Upside Potential Ratio235.72
Upside part of mean28.26
Downside part of mean-0.24
Upside SD19.85
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms3
N negative terms128
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.12
Mean of criterion28.02
SD of predictor0.51
SD of criterion19.85
Covariance0.05
r0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.18
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)27.82
Mean Square Error397.06
DF error129
t(b)0.05
p(b)0.50
t(a)0.98
p(a)0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-6.54
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta6.90
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-28.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha84.08
Treynor index (mean / b)157.25
Jensen alpha (a)27.82
VaR(95%)0.85
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.90
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations23
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.05
Maximum1.27
Mean of quarter 10.75
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 41.15
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.13
Mean of outliers low0.55
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high1.23
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.93
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.16
Expected Shortfall (moments method)2.71
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.06
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.30
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations508
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1245967
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 49811.77
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low93
Percentage of outliers low0.18
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high122
Percentage of outliers high0.24
Mean of outliers high10213.85
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.98
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.45
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.63
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05
Number of observations131
Minimum0.92
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1245967
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 437757.55
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high415323.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.03
VaR(95%) (regression method)-0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.06
Quartile 10.11
Median0.17
Quartile 30.58
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.06
Mean of quarter 20.17
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.47
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations20
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.08
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.30
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.85
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.30
Expected Shortfall (moments method)2.06
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.60
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.38
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations1
Minimum0.08
Quartile 10.08
Median0.08
Quartile 30.08
Maximum0.08
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-415266624
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)541
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.52
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-1.00
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.00
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.00
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.00
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)5.59
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)2.58
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.58
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs8.55
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal3.20
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)2458842
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1511478394880
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)19522648014848
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1672969584640

Trading record

Placed 2 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
MNQ Z1long6Nov 17, 2021Nov 18, 2021$2,217
MES Z1long8Nov 17, 2021Nov 18, 2021$800
MNQ Z1long3Oct 29, 2021Nov 5, 2021$2,928
MES Z1long7Oct 29, 2021Nov 5, 2021$2,897
MNQ Z1long3Oct 22, 2021Oct 26, 2021$1,191
MES Z1long7Oct 22, 2021Oct 26, 2021$1,173
MNQ Z1long3Oct 1, 2021Oct 19, 2021$3,789
MES Z1long6Oct 1, 2021Oct 19, 2021$4,921
NQ Z1long4Oct 1, 2021Oct 7, 2021$7,688
MNQ Z1long4Sep 23, 2021Sep 27, 2021($1,050)
MES Z1long6Sep 23, 2021Sep 27, 2021($157)
NQ Z1long4Sep 24, 2021Sep 24, 2021($112)
NQ Z1long4Sep 23, 2021Sep 23, 2021$468
NQ U1long1Aug 30, 2021Sep 3, 2021$927
NQ U1long1Aug 23, 2021Aug 26, 2021($803)
NQ U1long1Aug 4, 2021Aug 13, 2021$852
NQ U1long1Jul 28, 2021Aug 2, 2021($443)
NQ U1long1Jul 21, 2021Jul 26, 2021$5,607
NQ U1long1Jul 9, 2021Jul 15, 2021($778)
NQ U1long1Jul 2, 2021Jul 6, 2021$1,212
NQ U1long1Jun 23, 2021Jun 30, 2021$5,827
NQ M1long1Jun 3, 2021Jun 9, 2021$5,677
NQ M1long1May 24, 2021Jun 1, 2021($113)
MNQ M1long10May 18, 2021May 19, 2021($144)
MNQ M1long8May 10, 2021May 11, 2021($5,616)
NQ M1long1.6May 5, 2021May 7, 2021$7,427
NQ M1long1.6Apr 27, 2021Apr 30, 2021($2,501)
NQ M1long1.6Apr 21, 2021Apr 22, 2021($4,149)
NQ M1long1.6Apr 1, 2021Apr 20, 2021$13,019
NQ M1long1.6Mar 29, 2021Mar 31, 2021$3,915

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.