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Global Multi Asset

Equity · Stocks · Started Sep 2020

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
9.1%
Max Drawdown
20.1%
Trades
56
Win Trades
44.6%
Profit Factor
3
Win Months
62.5%

About this strategy

Long-term trading. ETFs and individual stocks are used. In case a strong momentum is absent on the market, the SHY, VTIP or SHV positions open.
Open short positions are not allowed. Only long positions.
The portfolio is revised on the first working day of every month.
Martingale or its any variants are not allowed.
Stop losses are not placed. The portfolio is balanced in such a way that losses in one of the assets (stocks, bonds, gold) are usually compensated by another asset growth.
Must have margin account to enable swapping and avoid freeriding (T+2) restrictions.
If starting the system, enter any existing open positions.

Momentum

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2020-2.7-1.37.44.98.2
2021-2.70.80.88.62.21.73.51.2-6.77.8-2.44.619.9
2022-7.81.62.8-2.40.7-3.9-0.5-2.9-1.2-0.10.1-2.3-15.2
20239.3-6.33.01.5-5.31.70.8-1.7-1.6-1.63.10.62.7
20241.01.33.4-0.62.80.8-1.41.51.11.21.3-0.212.8
20252.7-0.2-3.2-2.03.12.92.70.81.61.80.2-0.110.4
20264.7-0.52.25.63.10.07.71.620.3

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began9/11/2020
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age73 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades56
# Profitable25
% Profitable44.6%
Avg trade duration127.3 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown20.1%
drawdown periodMarch 08, 2022 - Jan 02, 2023
Annual Return (Compounded)9.1%
Avg win$918
Avg loss$316

Ratios

W:L ratio3.02
Sharpe Ratio0.64
Sortino Ratio0.96
Calmar Ratio1.09

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.43
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life129.6%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-59.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)9.1%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)10.1%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss44.5%
Chance of 20% account loss11.5%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$316
Avg Win$918
# Winners25
Sum Trade PL (losers)$9,803
Sum Trade PL (winners)$22,961
Num Months Winners45
# Losers31
% Winners44.6%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct6635

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table73

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)183244.59
Avg Position Time (hrs)3054.08
Avg Trade Length127.30
Last Trade Ago1115

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.34
Daily leverage (max)1.90

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta0.27
Treynor Index0.08

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades1.47
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.26
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.27
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.32
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.73

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.12
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.89
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.87
df40
t1.64
p0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.96
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.21
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.95
Sortino ratio1.67
Upside Potential Ratio3.33
Upside part of mean0.23
Downside part of mean-0.12
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms27
N negative terms14
N of observations41
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion0.12
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance0.02
r0.67
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.45
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.03
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error39
t(b)5.59
p(b)0
t(a)0.48
p(a)0.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.61
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.14
Treynor index (mean / b)0.26
Jensen alpha (a)0.03
Mean0.11
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.84
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.82
df40
t1.55
p0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.91
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.26
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.90
Sortino ratio1.51
Upside Potential Ratio3.16
Upside part of mean0.23
Downside part of mean-0.12
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms27
N negative terms14
N of observations41
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.11
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance0.02
r0.65
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.43
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.03
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error39
t(b)5.41
p(b)0
t(a)0.53
p(a)0.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.14
Treynor index (mean / b)0.25
Jensen alpha (a)0.03
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean0.13
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.12
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.12
df901
t2.07
p0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.18
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.06
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.17
Sortino ratio1.65
Upside Potential Ratio9.33
Upside part of mean0.75
Downside part of mean-0.62
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms485
N negative terms417
N of observations902
Mean of predictor0.23
Mean of criterion0.13
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance0.01
r0.42
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.25
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.08
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error900
t(b)13.83
p(b)0
t(a)1.31
p(a)0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.19
Treynor index (mean / b)0.53
Jensen alpha (a)0.08
Mean0.13
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.06
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.06
df901
t1.97
p0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.12
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.00
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.12
Sortino ratio1.55
Upside Potential Ratio9.21
Upside part of mean0.74
Downside part of mean-0.62
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms485
N negative terms417
N of observations902
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion0.13
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance0.01
r0.42
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.25
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.07
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error900
t(b)13.80
p(b)0
t(a)1.27
p(a)0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.19
Treynor index (mean / b)0.51
Jensen alpha (a)0.07
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.59
SD0.16
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.71
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)3.69
df130
t2.62
p0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.89
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio6.51
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.88
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation6.50
Sortino ratio6.62
Upside Potential Ratio13.89
Upside part of mean1.25
Downside part of mean-0.65
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms71
N negative terms60
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.04
Mean of criterion0.59
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.16
Covariance0.03
r0.64
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.36
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.22
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error129
t(b)9.41
p(b)0.12
t(a)1.23
p(a)0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.57
Treynor index (mean / b)1.65
Jensen alpha (a)0.22
Mean0.58
SD0.16
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)3.64
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)3.62
df130
t2.57
p0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.82
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio6.44
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.81
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation6.42
Sortino ratio6.41
Upside Potential Ratio13.67
Upside part of mean1.24
Downside part of mean-0.66
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms71
N negative terms60
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.99
Mean of criterion0.58
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.16
Covariance0.03
r0.64
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.36
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.22
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error129
t(b)9.40
p(b)0.12
t(a)1.24
p(a)0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.28
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.58
Treynor index (mean / b)1.61
Jensen alpha (a)0.22
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations41
Minimum0.93
Quartile 10.99
Median1.01
Quartile 31.03
Maximum1.13
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.01
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 41.06
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.93
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.11
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.80
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.49
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05
Number of observations902
Minimum0.97
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.03
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low34
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high35
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.05
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.11
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.03
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low5
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.18
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.19
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.03
Median0.06
Quartile 30.08
Maximum0.11
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.11
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations30
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.02
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.15
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.07
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high0.13
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.72
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.08
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.04
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.13
Number of observations11
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.06
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.04
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high0.06
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-33.72
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-2.33
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.07
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-414098624
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)300
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.2%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.17
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.15
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.32
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.32
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.22
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.20
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.17
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.09
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.31
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal11.43
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.71
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.84
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)14.69
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs19.20
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal46.65

Trading record

Placed 10 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
XLY long16Aug 28, 2023Oct 20, 2023($214)
EMB long123Jul 3, 2023Sep 1, 2023($105)
USO short38Aug 28, 2023Aug 31, 2023($79)
GBTC short150Jul 24, 2023Aug 28, 2023$260
KWEB long100Aug 9, 2023Aug 16, 2023($191)
KWEB long92Aug 1, 2023Aug 9, 2023($157)
EUO long100Aug 4, 2023Aug 9, 2023$18
QQQ short8Jul 26, 2023Aug 9, 2023$61
GLD long16Jul 19, 2023Aug 1, 2023($45)
VNQ long126Jul 3, 2023Aug 1, 2023$103
LTPZ long176Jul 3, 2023Aug 1, 2023($411)
BNDX long214Jun 1, 2023Jul 3, 2023($34)
SHV long63Jun 1, 2023Jul 3, 2023($0)
IAU long309Dec 1, 2022Jul 3, 2023$753
VNQI long471May 1, 2023Jun 1, 2023($763)
EMB long131Apr 3, 2023Jun 1, 2023($206)
IEFA long165Dec 1, 2022Jun 1, 2023$429
REET long471Apr 3, 2023May 1, 2023$62
SHV long128Mar 2, 2023Apr 3, 2023$11
VNQI long250Dec 1, 2022Mar 2, 2023($250)
EMB long126Dec 1, 2022Mar 2, 2023($367)
SHV long256Oct 3, 2022Dec 1, 2022($5)
VTIP long291Aug 1, 2022Sep 1, 2022($256)
IVV long27Aug 1, 2022Sep 1, 2022($416)
DBC long535Feb 1, 2022Sep 1, 2022$1,473
VTIP long453May 2, 2022Jul 1, 2022($449)
IAU long324Mar 1, 2022Jun 1, 2022($454)
IVV long26Apr 1, 2022May 2, 2022($1,016)
VTIP long550Mar 2, 2022Apr 1, 2022($448)
VTIP long243Jan 3, 2022Feb 1, 2022($88)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.