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Safe Commodity Strategy

Futures · Futures · Started Jan 2021

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
1.6%
Max Drawdown
2.8%
Trades
50
Win Trades
98.0%
Profit Factor
Win Months
8.8%

About this strategy

Location: Malta, EU
Experience In Markets: 22 years
Preferred Markets: Commodity Futures
Sharpe Ratio > 1.5

Description:
We have created several models of automatic futures trading in the market. We trade with several brokers on a real account, we show a yield of about 4-6% per month.

At the beginning of this year, we decided to limit our model, reduce risks and profitability, and put the bot on C2.

Please note also, that it is results from automated decision making, automated order creation, delivery, and execution. Risk concentration and risk management are also a part of our model DNA. We use cross-validation of data from our model, our risk management, and the risk management of the broker.
At each given moment of time system observes the market for gold and recalculates 8 different parameters in 4 types of deviations.

Commodities

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2021-0.3-0.12.10.62.04.60.2-0.20.30.00.00.09.4
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/29/2021
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age68 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades50
# Profitable49
% Profitable98.0%
Avg trade duration1.3 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown2.8%
drawdown periodMarch 24, 2021 - March 31, 2021
Annual Return (Compounded)1.6%
Avg win$226
Avg loss$0

Ratios

W:L ratio
Sharpe Ratio-0.14
Sortino Ratio-0.45
Calmar Ratio8.23

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.04
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life106.9%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-98.2%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)1.6%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)1.9%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.1%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss0.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated97.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$0
Avg Win$226
# Winners49
Sum Trade PL (losers)$0
Sum Trade PL (winners)$11,054
Num Months Winners6
# Losers1
% Winners98.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table68

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)1943.62
Avg Position Time (hrs)32.39
Avg Trade Length1.40
Last Trade Ago1814

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)0.32
Daily leverage (max)1.55

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0
Treynor Index-0.17

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades1.62
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)4.74
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.62
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.61

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.05
SD0.05
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.10
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.04
df15
t1.27
p0.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.66
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.82
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.69
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.78
Sortino ratio8.11
Upside Potential Ratio10.92
Upside part of mean0.07
Downside part of mean-0.02
Upside SD0.05
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms11
N of observations16
Mean of predictor0.48
Mean of criterion0.05
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion0.05
Covariance-0.00
r-0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error14
t(b)-0.30
p(b)0.54
t(a)1.24
p(a)0.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.16
Treynor index (mean / b)-4.39
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
Mean0.05
SD0.05
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.09
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.04
df15
t1.26
p0.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.66
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.82
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.70
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.78
Sortino ratio7.93
Upside Potential Ratio10.73
Upside part of mean0.07
Downside part of mean-0.02
Upside SD0.05
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms11
N of observations16
Mean of predictor0.43
Mean of criterion0.05
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion0.05
Covariance-0.00
r-0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.05
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error14
t(b)-0.22
p(b)0.53
t(a)1.21
p(a)0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.15
Treynor index (mean / b)-5.67
Jensen alpha (a)0.05
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean0.05
SD0.03
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.59
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.59
df366
t1.89
p0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.25
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.07
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.25
Sortino ratio5.77
Upside Potential Ratio11.74
Upside part of mean0.10
Downside part of mean-0.05
Upside SD0.03
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms50
N negative terms317
N of observations367
Mean of predictor0.52
Mean of criterion0.05
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion0.03
Covariance0.00
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.04
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error365
t(b)0.74
p(b)0.23
t(a)1.80
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.10
Treynor index (mean / b)12.63
Jensen alpha (a)0.05
Mean0.05
SD0.03
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.59
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.59
df366
t1.88
p0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.25
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.07
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.25
Sortino ratio5.70
Upside Potential Ratio11.67
Upside part of mean0.10
Downside part of mean-0.05
Upside SD0.03
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms50
N negative terms317
N of observations367
Mean of predictor0.47
Mean of criterion0.05
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion0.03
Covariance0.00
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.05
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error365
t(b)0.76
p(b)0.22
t(a)1.80
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.09
Treynor index (mean / b)12.13
Jensen alpha (a)0.05
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.15
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.46
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.04
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.46
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6799625256173568
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-6.91397055637999e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations16
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.05
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.19
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations367
Minimum1.00
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.03
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low28
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low1.00
Number of outliers high53
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.08
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.07
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.00
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations13
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.00
Maximum0.01
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.00
Mean of quarter 40.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high0.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-3.34
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.61
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-481409760
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)7
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.08
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.08
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal3.55
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.08
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.08
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)8.23
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs10.85
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal21.77
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 30 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
CC K2long1Sep 10, 2021Sep 10, 2021($8)
CC K2long1Aug 31, 2021Sep 2, 2021$2
CC K2long1Aug 27, 2021Aug 30, 2021$122
W Z1long1Aug 20, 2021Aug 20, 2021$42
CC Z1long1Aug 2, 2021Aug 2, 2021$22
CC Z1long1Jul 16, 2021Jul 26, 2021$42
W Z1long1Jul 6, 2021Jul 6, 2021$130
CC Z1long1Jul 2, 2021Jul 6, 2021$123
CC Z1long1Jul 1, 2021Jul 2, 2021$63
W U1long1Jun 29, 2021Jun 30, 2021$1,055
W U1long1Jun 29, 2021Jun 29, 2021$305
W U1long1Jun 25, 2021Jun 27, 2021$66
CC Z1long1Jun 23, 2021Jun 25, 2021$137
W U1long1Jun 22, 2021Jun 22, 2021$117
W U1long1Jun 21, 2021Jun 21, 2021$492
CC Z1long1Jun 18, 2021Jun 21, 2021$142
W U1long1Jun 16, 2021Jun 18, 2021$42
CC U1long1Jun 17, 2021Jun 17, 2021$142
CC U1long1Jun 16, 2021Jun 16, 2021$142
W U1long1Jun 15, 2021Jun 15, 2021$255
W U1long1Jun 11, 2021Jun 14, 2021$55
CC U1long1Jun 11, 2021Jun 11, 2021$142
W U1long1Jun 11, 2021Jun 11, 2021$330
W U1long1Jun 10, 2021Jun 10, 2021$255
W U1long1Jun 10, 2021Jun 10, 2021$217
W U1long1Jun 9, 2021Jun 9, 2021$255
W U1long1Jun 9, 2021Jun 9, 2021$355
CC U1long1Jun 7, 2021Jun 8, 2021$22
CC U1long1Jun 3, 2021Jun 4, 2021$142
W U1long1Jun 3, 2021Jun 4, 2021$267

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.