Welcome to Collective2

Follow these tips for a better experience

Ok, let's start

Close
Add to Watch List Create new Watch List
Add
Enter a name for your Watch List.
Watch List name must be less than 60 characters.
You have reached the maximum number of custom Watch Lists.
You have reached the maximum number of strategies in this Watch List.
Strategy added to Watch List. Go to Watch List

Sim is unavailable for this strategy, because you've recently "Simmed" it.

You already have a live, full-featured subscription to this strategy.

Okay, no problem

Reach out to us when you are ready. You can schedule your free training session at any time by clicking the button.

Remember, this training is free, low pressure, and (we hope!) fun.

Got it

Later

You can find it here.

Got it

Video Saved for Later

You can watch this video later. Just click this button at the top of the screen whenever you're ready to watch it.

Got it

tqqqnqq

Futures · Started Feb 2021

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
78.5%
Max Drawdown
43.3%
Trades
406
Win Trades
53.0%
Profit Factor
2.50
Win Months
13.6%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20210.24.16.76.2-0.81.1-1.85.85.91.142.187.3
2022-0.2-0.20.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.4
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began2/24/2021
Suggested Minimum Capital$40,000
Age67 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades406
# Profitable215
% Profitable53.0%
Avg trade duration2.8 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown43.3%
drawdown periodDec 14, 2021 - Dec 20, 2021
Annual Return (Compounded)78.5%
Avg win$307
Avg loss$140

Ratios

W:L ratio2.47
Sharpe Ratio0.44
Sortino Ratio1.05
Calmar Ratio1.88

Verified

C2Star0

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.05
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life93.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)72.5%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)78.5%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.8%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)13.1%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity1.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss42.5%
Chance of 20% account loss15.5%
Chance of 30% account loss4.5%
Chance of 40% account loss0.5%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated96.6%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)832
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)730

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$140
Avg Win$307
# Winners215
Sum Trade PL (losers)$26,808
Sum Trade PL (winners)$66,107
Num Months Winners9
# Losers191
% Winners53.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table68

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)168.87
Avg Position Time (hrs)2.81
Avg Trade Length0.10
Last Trade Ago1719

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)4.24
Daily leverage (max)21.03

Regression

Alpha0.03
Beta0.07
Treynor Index0.43

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades3.41
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.75
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats61.67
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats57.94
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.89
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.33
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.29

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.73
SD0.38
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.91
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.78
df11
t1.91
p0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.99
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.32
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.87
Sortino ratio162.79
Upside Potential Ratio164.51
Upside part of mean0.74
Downside part of mean-0.01
Upside SD0.42
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms8
N negative terms4
N of observations12
Mean of predictor0.09
Mean of criterion0.73
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.38
Covariance0.01
r0.25
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.68
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.67
Mean Square Error0.15
DF error10
t(b)0.82
p(b)0.21
t(a)1.69
p(a)0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.55
Treynor index (mean / b)1.07
Jensen alpha (a)0.67
Mean0.66
SD0.32
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.03
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.89
df11
t2.03
p0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.13
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.22
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.00
Sortino ratio146.38
Upside Potential Ratio148.10
Upside part of mean0.66
Downside part of mean-0.01
Upside SD0.36
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms8
N negative terms4
N of observations12
Mean of predictor0.08
Mean of criterion0.66
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.32
Covariance0.01
r0.26
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.59
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.61
Mean Square Error0.11
DF error10
t(b)0.87
p(b)0.20
t(a)1.84
p(a)0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.93
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.35
Treynor index (mean / b)1.11
Jensen alpha (a)0.61
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.13
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean0.72
SD0.46
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.55
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.55
df275
t1.60
p0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.47
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.36
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.46
Sortino ratio3.32
Upside Potential Ratio5.72
Upside part of mean1.24
Downside part of mean-0.52
Upside SD0.41
Downside SD0.22
N nonnegative terms105
N negative terms171
N of observations276
Mean of predictor0.11
Mean of criterion0.72
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.46
Covariance0.01
r0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.39
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.48
Mean Square Error0.21
DF error274
t(b)2.18
p(b)0.01
t(a)1.51
p(a)0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.75
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.56
Treynor index (mean / b)1.82
Jensen alpha (a)0.68
Mean0.62
SD0.43
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.44
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.44
df275
t1.48
p0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.35
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.48
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.35
Sortino ratio2.64
Upside Potential Ratio4.96
Upside part of mean1.17
Downside part of mean-0.55
Upside SD0.36
Downside SD0.24
N nonnegative terms105
N negative terms171
N of observations276
Mean of predictor0.09
Mean of criterion0.62
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.43
Covariance0.01
r0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.38
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.59
Mean Square Error0.18
DF error274
t(b)2.24
p(b)0.01
t(a)1.41
p(a)0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.71
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.41
Treynor index (mean / b)1.65
Jensen alpha (a)0.59
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean1.04
SD0.66
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.58
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.57
df130
t1.12
p0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.35
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.21
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.35
Sortino ratio3.39
Upside Potential Ratio5.91
Upside part of mean1.82
Downside part of mean-0.78
Upside SD0.59
Downside SD0.31
N nonnegative terms30
N negative terms101
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.02
Mean of criterion1.04
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.66
Covariance0.02
r0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.58
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.05
Mean Square Error0.43
DF error129
t(b)1.84
p(b)0.40
t(a)1.14
p(a)0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.78
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.89
Treynor index (mean / b)1.79
Jensen alpha (a)1.05
Mean0.85
SD0.61
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.38
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.37
df130
t0.97
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.15
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.41
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.14
Sortino ratio2.52
Upside Potential Ratio5.00
Upside part of mean1.68
Downside part of mean-0.83
Upside SD0.52
Downside SD0.34
N nonnegative terms30
N negative terms101
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.03
Mean of criterion0.85
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.61
Covariance0.02
r0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.55
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.86
Mean Square Error0.37
DF error129
t(b)1.88
p(b)0.40
t(a)1.00
p(a)0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.84
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.57
Treynor index (mean / b)1.53
Jensen alpha (a)0.86
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations12
Minimum1.00
Quartile 11.00
Median1.03
Quartile 31.07
Maximum1.40
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21.01
Mean of quarter 31.06
Mean of quarter 41.19
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.40
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations276
Minimum0.81
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.35
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low19
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high43
Percentage of outliers high0.16
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.29
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.20
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum0.81
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.35
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low16
Percentage of outliers low0.12
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high30
Percentage of outliers high0.23
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.89
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.55
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.00
Maximum0.00
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations20
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.32
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.08
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high0.13
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.09
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.99
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations6
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.32
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.16
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.32
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-313587104
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)6
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.98
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.98
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1359.19
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal7.68
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.93
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.91
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.89
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs10.77
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal17.88
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.10
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.40
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)4.40
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs8.60
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal19.32

Trading record

Placed 220 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
MNQ H2long31Dec 16, 2021Dec 23, 2021$16,336
MNQ H2short3Dec 16, 2021Dec 16, 2021$555
MNQ H2long7Dec 15, 2021Dec 15, 2021($1,385)
MNQ H2short3Dec 14, 2021Dec 14, 2021$102
MNQ H2short1Dec 14, 2021Dec 14, 2021$101
MNQ Z1short6Nov 30, 2021Dec 2, 2021$6,785
MNQ Z1short3Nov 19, 2021Nov 19, 2021($12)
TY Z1long1Nov 19, 2021Nov 19, 2021$492
MNQ Z1short3Nov 19, 2021Nov 19, 2021$11
MNQ Z1short8Nov 17, 2021Nov 17, 2021($452)
MNQ Z1short3Nov 17, 2021Nov 17, 2021($128)
MNQ Z1short6Nov 17, 2021Nov 17, 2021($20)
MNQ Z1short3Nov 16, 2021Nov 16, 2021$158
MNQ Z1short3Nov 16, 2021Nov 16, 2021$59
MNQ Z1long2Nov 15, 2021Nov 16, 2021$94
MNQ Z1long3Nov 12, 2021Nov 12, 2021$101
MNQ Z1short5Nov 9, 2021Nov 9, 2021$447
MNQ Z1long2Nov 9, 2021Nov 9, 2021($183)
MES Z1short3Oct 27, 2021Oct 27, 2021$330
MES Z1short2Oct 26, 2021Oct 26, 2021$51
MES Z1short4Oct 19, 2021Oct 19, 2021($250)
BX Z1short1Oct 18, 2021Oct 18, 2021$85
DXM Z1short2Oct 18, 2021Oct 18, 2021$378
MES Z1short2Oct 14, 2021Oct 14, 2021($10)
MES Z1short2Oct 13, 2021Oct 13, 2021($255)
MES Z1short2Oct 12, 2021Oct 12, 2021($142)
MES Z1short6Oct 12, 2021Oct 12, 2021$206
MES Z1short5Oct 11, 2021Oct 11, 2021$282
MES Z1short8Oct 11, 2021Oct 11, 2021($158)
BX Z1short2Oct 11, 2021Oct 11, 2021$1,325

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.