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First Derivative Model

Stocks · Started Mar 2021

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
3.8%
Max Drawdown
55.9%
Trades
202
Win Trades
36.6%
Profit Factor
1.20
Win Months
4.5%

About this strategy

DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE TRADES PLACED ON LIQUID GROWTH - IT IS BEST NOT TO JOIN TRADES IN PROGRESS.

This strategy is absolutely not for everyone. DRAWDOWNS MAY BE SUBSTANTIAL. By identifying highly volatile stocks using options pricing data we place trades in the direction our technical analysis believes they will go. We will be using margin on occasion, long and short equities. You will notice that our margin usage is within reason.

Each day our system identifies between 7 - 12 stocks to trade. We then analyze the stock for probable direction.

1. The direction is determined by assigning a proprietary score to the options valuations on the entire chain. When the score is higher on the call side we buy the stock, when the score is higher on the put side we short.
2. We then further assess the risk by looking at MACD and Stochastics.

The stocks must survive both tests in order to be traded.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2021-12.80.215.767.2-1.2-0.5-5.1-9.9-0.3-8.729.1
2022-5.0-0.10.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-5.1
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began3/1/2021
Suggested Minimum Capital$15,000
Age67 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades202
# Profitable74
% Profitable36.6%
Avg trade duration4.9 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown55.9%
drawdown periodSept 20, 2021 - Nov 12, 2021
Annual Return (Compounded)3.8%
Avg win$1,391
Avg loss$698

Ratios

W:L ratio1.16
Sharpe Ratio0.15
Sortino Ratio0.66
Calmar Ratio0.18

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life96.5%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-74.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)3.8%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)4.6%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity70.2%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss92.5%
Chance of 20% account loss75.0%
Chance of 30% account loss68.0%
Chance of 40% account loss61.5%
Chance of 50% account loss34.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)22.5%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)10.5%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.5%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$698
Avg Win$1,391
# Winners74
Sum Trade PL (losers)$89,397
Sum Trade PL (winners)$102,947
Num Months Winners2
# Losers128
% Winners36.6%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct642

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table67

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)7081.12
Avg Position Time (hrs)118.02
Avg Trade Length4.90
Last Trade Ago1674

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)0.42
Daily leverage (max)2.50

Regression

Alpha0.02
Beta0.02
Treynor Index1.10

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-3.57
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.79
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.44
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.25
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.28

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.06
SD0.33
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.19
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.19
df57
t0.42
p0.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.70
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.08
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.70
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.08
Sortino ratio0.73
Upside Potential Ratio2.00
Upside part of mean0.18
Downside part of mean-0.11
Upside SD0.32
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms3
N negative terms55
N of observations58
Mean of predictor0.12
Mean of criterion0.06
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.33
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.11
DF error56
t(b)0.05
p(b)0.48
t(a)0.39
p(a)0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.63
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.66
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.38
Treynor index (mean / b)3.71
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
Mean0.02
SD0.26
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.09
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.09
df57
t0.20
p0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.80
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.98
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.80
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.98
Sortino ratio0.26
Upside Potential Ratio1.51
Upside part of mean0.14
Downside part of mean-0.12
Upside SD0.25
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms3
N negative terms55
N of observations58
Mean of predictor0.11
Mean of criterion0.02
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.26
Covariance0.00
r0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.02
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error56
t(b)0.01
p(b)0.50
t(a)0.19
p(a)0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.27
Treynor index (mean / b)7.74
Jensen alpha (a)0.02
VaR(95%)0.12
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.14
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean0.07
SD0.38
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.19
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.19
df1275
t0.42
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.70
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.08
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.70
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.08
Sortino ratio0.93
Upside Potential Ratio4.82
Upside part of mean0.38
Downside part of mean-0.30
Upside SD0.37
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms94
N negative terms1182
N of observations1276
Mean of predictor0.12
Mean of criterion0.07
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.38
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.07
Mean Square Error0.14
DF error1274
t(b)0.26
p(b)0.50
t(a)0.41
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.41
Treynor index (mean / b)4.34
Jensen alpha (a)0.07
Mean0.02
SD0.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.08
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.08
df1275
t0.18
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.81
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.97
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.81
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.97
Sortino ratio0.30
Upside Potential Ratio4.16
Upside part of mean0.33
Downside part of mean-0.31
Upside SD0.28
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms94
N negative terms1182
N of observations1276
Mean of predictor0.11
Mean of criterion0.02
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.29
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.02
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error1274
t(b)0.29
p(b)0.50
t(a)0.17
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.28
Treynor index (mean / b)1.66
Jensen alpha (a)0.02
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6843089788338176
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-5.94078865658251e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations58
Minimum0.88
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.68
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.06
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low8
Percentage of outliers low0.14
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.21
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-5.07
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.46
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.10
Number of observations1276
Minimum0.93
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.80
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low136
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high96
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.10
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.16
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.12
Quartile 10.16
Median0.19
Quartile 30.23
Maximum0.26
Mean of quarter 10.12
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.26
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations4
Minimum0.03
Quartile 10.10
Median0.13
Quartile 30.18
Maximum0.29
Mean of quarter 10.03
Mean of quarter 20.12
Mean of quarter 30.15
Mean of quarter 40.29
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-416627648
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)53
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.06
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.05
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.20
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.20
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.37
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.06
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.05
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.18
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.18
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.47
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
HOFV long3900Jan 24, 2022Feb 1, 2022($629)
SYF long105Jan 6, 2022Jan 18, 2022($91)
UBX long2800Jan 5, 2022Jan 13, 2022($1,097)
CKPT long2500Jan 4, 2022Jan 13, 2022($1,155)
QLGN long6600Dec 28, 2021Jan 13, 2022($1,193)
ESSC long575Jan 4, 2022Jan 13, 2022$633
FTK long7000Dec 31, 2021Jan 4, 2022($565)
AVCT long3690Dec 30, 2021Dec 30, 2021$290
ARDX long7050Dec 20, 2021Dec 28, 2021($1,083)
MTCR long7620Dec 21, 2021Dec 21, 2021($386)
MTCR long6200Dec 17, 2021Dec 20, 2021($2,126)
SEAC long4800Dec 16, 2021Dec 17, 2021($725)
WTRH long10000Dec 15, 2021Dec 17, 2021($588)
ARDX long5500Dec 10, 2021Dec 17, 2021($1,765)
AMC long300Dec 10, 2021Dec 17, 2021($894)
SPG long51Dec 8, 2021Dec 10, 2021($309)
APTO long3775Dec 1, 2021Dec 10, 2021($458)
AVCT long5000Dec 9, 2021Dec 10, 2021$3,745
AGC long556Nov 29, 2021Dec 1, 2021($1,300)
CTIC long2783Nov 29, 2021Nov 30, 2021($1,118)
BBIG long2278Nov 9, 2021Nov 18, 2021($1,030)
ESGC long20000Nov 16, 2021Nov 18, 2021($2,815)
PROG long3300Nov 12, 2021Nov 15, 2021$721
MPLX long312Nov 9, 2021Nov 12, 2021($340)
LOTZ long2500Nov 9, 2021Nov 12, 2021($1,130)
PSFE long2300Nov 11, 2021Nov 12, 2021$271
LCID long229Nov 9, 2021Nov 11, 2021$277
ENVB long5000Nov 8, 2021Nov 9, 2021($555)
MARK long6000Nov 9, 2021Nov 9, 2021($545)
TMC long3000Nov 4, 2021Nov 9, 2021$175

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.