Welcome to Collective2

Follow these tips for a better experience

Ok, let's start

Close
Add to Watch List Create new Watch List
Add
Enter a name for your Watch List.
Watch List name must be less than 60 characters.
You have reached the maximum number of custom Watch Lists.
You have reached the maximum number of strategies in this Watch List.
Strategy added to Watch List. Go to Watch List

Sim is unavailable for this strategy, because you've recently "Simmed" it.

You already have a live, full-featured subscription to this strategy.

Okay, no problem

Reach out to us when you are ready. You can schedule your free training session at any time by clicking the button.

Remember, this training is free, low pressure, and (we hope!) fun.

Got it

Later

You can find it here.

Got it

Video Saved for Later

You can watch this video later. Just click this button at the top of the screen whenever you're ready to watch it.

Got it

Schulenberg Meteoric 500

Stocks · Started Mar 2021

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
10.7%
Max Drawdown
14.2%
Trades
344
Win Trades
43.3%
Profit Factor
1.20
Win Months
12.1%

About this strategy

Based upon our most accurate S&P Model, this strategy will trade the S&P using SSO (when Long) and SDS (when Short), slightly over-leveraged when Long, and under-leveraged when Short. It is reasonable to apply some leverage when Long because our Model's BUY signals are inherently more accurate than its SHORT signals. Thus, in order to strive for the lowest possible drawdown, Shorts (via SDS) are used, but they use a reduced amount of equity for these trades.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20215.3-1.16.62.31.73.1-7.32.1-0.23.716.4
2022-4.610.6-2.8-5.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-3.2
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began3/2/2021
Suggested Minimum Capital$43,000
Age67 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades344
# Profitable149
% Profitable43.3%
Avg trade duration18.8 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown14.2%
drawdown periodMarch 08, 2022 - April 25, 2022
Annual Return (Compounded)10.7%
Avg win$372
Avg loss$238

Ratios

W:L ratio1.20
Sharpe Ratio0.06
Sortino Ratio0.09
Calmar Ratio1.15

Verified

C2Star0

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.05
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life97.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)3.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)10.7%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)3.6%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity16.5%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss9.5%
Chance of 20% account loss0.5%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated4.3%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)367
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)899
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)735

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$238
Avg Win$372
# Winners149
Sum Trade PL (losers)$46,338
Sum Trade PL (winners)$55,480
Num Months Winners8
# Losers195
% Winners43.3%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct40

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table67

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)1129.68
Avg Position Time (hrs)18.83
Avg Trade Length0.80
Last Trade Ago1596

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.23
Daily leverage (max)4.12

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.02
Treynor Index0.07

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades30.90
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.47
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.46
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.24
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.03

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.18
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.97
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.91
df12
t1.01
p0.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.97
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.87
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.01
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.83
Sortino ratio1.77
Upside Potential Ratio3.41
Upside part of mean0.35
Downside part of mean-0.17
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms8
N negative terms5
N of observations13
Mean of predictor0.12
Mean of criterion0.18
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance-0.00
r-0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.18
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error11
t(b)-0.01
p(b)0.51
t(a)0.93
p(a)0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.62
Treynor index (mean / b)-28.57
Jensen alpha (a)0.18
Mean0.16
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.89
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.83
df12
t0.93
p0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.79
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.75
Sortino ratio1.55
Upside Potential Ratio3.19
Upside part of mean0.34
Downside part of mean-0.17
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms8
N negative terms5
N of observations13
Mean of predictor0.11
Mean of criterion0.16
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance0.00
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.16
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error11
t(b)0.06
p(b)0.48
t(a)0.84
p(a)0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.98
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.58
Treynor index (mean / b)5.90
Jensen alpha (a)0.16
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.09
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean0.15
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.18
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.17
df297
t1.25
p0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.67
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.01
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.67
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.01
Sortino ratio1.75
Upside Potential Ratio9.08
Upside part of mean0.78
Downside part of mean-0.63
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms153
N negative terms145
N of observations298
Mean of predictor0.06
Mean of criterion0.15
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance0.00
r0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.09
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error296
t(b)1.66
p(b)0.05
t(a)1.22
p(a)0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.38
Treynor index (mean / b)1.87
Jensen alpha (a)0.15
Mean0.14
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.11
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.11
df297
t1.18
p0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.73
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.95
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.73
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.95
Sortino ratio1.64
Upside Potential Ratio8.94
Upside part of mean0.78
Downside part of mean-0.63
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms153
N negative terms145
N of observations298
Mean of predictor0.05
Mean of criterion0.14
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance0.00
r0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.14
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error296
t(b)1.66
p(b)0.05
t(a)1.16
p(a)0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.37
Treynor index (mean / b)1.77
Jensen alpha (a)0.14
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.06
SD0.16
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.41
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.41
df130
t0.29
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.18
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.36
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.18
Sortino ratio0.60
Upside Potential Ratio8.52
Upside part of mean0.92
Downside part of mean-0.86
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms60
N negative terms71
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.16
Mean of criterion0.06
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.16
Covariance-0.00
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error129
t(b)-0.23
p(b)0.51
t(a)0.28
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.50
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.75
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
Mean0.05
SD0.16
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.33
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.33
df130
t0.24
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.10
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.44
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.10
Sortino ratio0.48
Upside Potential Ratio8.38
Upside part of mean0.92
Downside part of mean-0.86
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms60
N negative terms71
N of observations131
Mean of predictor-0.18
Mean of criterion0.05
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.16
Covariance-0.00
r-0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.05
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error129
t(b)-0.24
p(b)0.51
t(a)0.22
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.16
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.49
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.94
Jensen alpha (a)0.05
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations13
Minimum0.93
Quartile 11.00
Median1.03
Quartile 31.04
Maximum1.13
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21.02
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41.08
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.15
Mean of outliers low0.93
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.13
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-56.87
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-3.72
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.12
Number of observations298
Minimum0.97
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.03
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low13
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high14
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.43
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.14
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.97
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.03
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low7
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.44
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.14
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.07
Quartile 10.07
Median0.07
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.07
Mean of quarter 10.07
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.07
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations22
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.11
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.06
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high0.09
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.07
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.09
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.14
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.13
Number of observations9
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.02
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.11
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.09
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high0.11
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-4.51
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.08
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.47
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.15
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-325060640
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)48
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.21
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.21
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)3.02
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs3.02
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.32
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.19
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.19
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.62
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs3.03
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal11.86
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.08
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.08
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.73
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.91
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal4.26

Trading record

Placed 682 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
SSO long786Apr 25, 2022Apr 25, 2022$349
SDS long1328Apr 25, 2022Apr 25, 2022($324)
SSO long786Apr 25, 2022Apr 25, 2022($186)
SDS long1328Apr 25, 2022Apr 25, 2022($191)
SSO long786Apr 25, 2022Apr 25, 2022$34
SDS long1328Apr 25, 2022Apr 25, 2022($1,094)
SDS long700Apr 20, 2022Apr 20, 2022$177
SDS long1300Apr 19, 2022Apr 19, 2022($74)
SDS long700Apr 19, 2022Apr 19, 2022($89)
SSO long800Apr 19, 2022Apr 19, 2022($5)
SDS long700Apr 19, 2022Apr 19, 2022($425)
SDS long670Apr 18, 2022Apr 18, 2022($65)
SDS long800Apr 14, 2022Apr 14, 2022$387
SSO long600Apr 14, 2022Apr 14, 2022($107)
SDS long664Apr 14, 2022Apr 14, 2022($86)
SSO long664Apr 14, 2022Apr 14, 2022$4
SSO long400Apr 14, 2022Apr 14, 2022($46)
SDS long664Apr 14, 2022Apr 14, 2022($9)
UPRO short100Apr 14, 2022Apr 14, 2022$2
SSO long400Apr 14, 2022Apr 14, 2022($234)
SDS long1300Apr 13, 2022Apr 13, 2022($62)
SSO long800Apr 13, 2022Apr 13, 2022($157)
SDS long900Apr 13, 2022Apr 13, 2022($86)
SSO long800Apr 13, 2022Apr 13, 2022$104
SDS long1300Apr 13, 2022Apr 13, 2022($112)
SSO long800Apr 13, 2022Apr 13, 2022($75)
SDS long670Apr 13, 2022Apr 13, 2022($451)
SDS long664Apr 12, 2022Apr 12, 2022$579
SDS long393Apr 11, 2022Apr 11, 2022($4)
SSO long390Apr 8, 2022Apr 8, 2022$289

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.