Collective2 Collective2
Featured Strategy TechSignal Followed by live capital $723.0 thousand Hypothetical

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Adaptive Investments
(148705494)

Created by: FormulaicSystems FormulaicSystems
Started: 07/2024
Stocks
Last trade: 7 days ago

Subscriptions not available

No subscriptions are currently available for this strategy because the strategy manager has capped the maximum number of subscribers.

Subscription terms. Subscriptions to this system cost $95.00 per month.

C2Star

C2Star is a certification program for trading strategies. In order to become "C2Star Certified," a strategy must apply tight risk controls, and must exhibit excellent performance characteristics, including low drawdowns.

You can read more about C2Star certification requirements here.

Note that: all trading strategies are risky, and C2Star Certification does not imply that a strategy is low risk.

102.6%
Cumul. Return

Rate of Return Calculations

Overview

To comply with NFA regulations, we display Cumulative Rate of Return for strategies with a track record of less than one year. For strategies with longer track records, we display Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return.

How Cumulative Rate of Return is calculated

= (Ending_equity - Starting_equity) / Starting_equity

Remember that, following NFA requirements, strategy subscription costs and estimated commissions are included in marked-to-market equity calculations.

All results are hypothetical.

(18.5%)
Max Drawdown
113
Num Trades
49.6%
Win Trades
1.8 : 1
Profit Factor
76.9%
Win Months
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes system fee and Typical Broker commissions and fees)
 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2024                                          (3%)+9.0%+0.3%(6.9%)+6.0%+4.5%+9.3%
2025+8.8%+0.7%+1.3%+48.4%+7.7%+5.3%(0.8%)                              +85.3%

Model Account Details

A trading strategy on Collective2. Follow it in your broker account, or use a free simulated trading account.

Advanced users may want to use this information to adjust their AutoTrade scaling, or merely to understand the magnitudes of the nearby chart.

System developer has asked us to delay this information by 24 hours.

Trading Record

This strategy has placed 41 trades in real-life brokerage accounts. To see live brokerage data, select Show AutoTrade Data, and click on a Live AutoTrade Indicator symbol.

Show AutoTrade data Hide AutoTrade data
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Long
Short
Both
Win
Loss
Both
Opened Date/TimeSymbolDescriptionSideQuantAvg PriceClosed Date/TimeAvg PriceDrawdownP/L
6/25/25 15:59 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 1,056 79.65 7/1 10:45 80.79 n/a $1,193
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $13.44
6/23/25 15:59 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 639 74.78 6/24 15:59 78.17 n/a $2,165
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
6/18/25 15:59 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 650 73.43 6/20 10:23 73.58 n/a $93
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
6/17/25 15:59 SQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT QQQ LONG 2,158 22.48 6/18 10:20 22.12 1.68%
Trade id #152080128
Max drawdown($787)
Time6/18/25 10:20
Quant open2,158
Worst price22.11
Drawdown as % of equity-1.68%
 ($760)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
6/16/25 15:59 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 215 75.69 6/17 15:59 73.56 1.19%
Trade id #152069535
Max drawdown($561)
Time6/17/25 14:44
Quant open215
Worst price73.08
Drawdown as % of equity-1.19%
 ($461)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $4.30
6/13/25 15:59 SQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT QQQ LONG 1,489 22.80 6/16 9:53 21.98 2.66%
Trade id #152052982
Max drawdown($1,273)
Time6/16/25 9:53
Quant open1,489
Worst price21.94
Drawdown as % of equity-2.66%
 ($1,224)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
6/11/25 15:59 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 690 75.20 6/13 15:59 72.72 4.07%
Trade id #151995889
Max drawdown($2,020)
Time6/13/25 15:46
Quant open690
Worst price72.27
Drawdown as % of equity-4.07%
 ($1,716)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
6/10/25 15:59 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 689 75.97 6/11 14:02 75.25 1.24%
Trade id #151984184
Max drawdown($639)
Time6/11/25 14:02
Quant open689
Worst price75.04
Drawdown as % of equity-1.24%
 ($499)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
6/5/25 15:59 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 948 72.68 6/10 11:33 73.95 n/a $1,192
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $9.74
5/30/25 15:59 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 1,164 72.24 6/5 9:46 73.46 0.69%
Trade id #151878490
Max drawdown($334)
Time6/2/25 0:00
Quant open239
Worst price68.69
Drawdown as % of equity-0.69%
 $1,401
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $18.82
5/29/25 15:59 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 730 70.33 5/30 12:28 68.10 3.46%
Trade id #151867836
Max drawdown($1,697)
Time5/30/25 12:28
Quant open730
Worst price68.00
Drawdown as % of equity-3.46%
 ($1,626)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
5/29/25 12:48: Rescaled downward to 50% of previous Model Account size
5/23/25 15:59 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 723 66.23 5/29 9:46 71.07 n/a $3,488
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $9.73
5/21/25 15:59 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 702.500000000 68.07 5/22 15:59 68.19 0.34%
Trade id #151792492
Max drawdown($158)
Time5/22/25 9:35
Quant open351
Worst price67.62
Drawdown as % of equity-0.34%
 $79
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
5/19/25 15:59 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 693.500000000 71.72 5/21 15:06 68.97 1.81%
Trade id #151768604
Max drawdown($862)
Time5/21/25 15:06
Quant open229
Worst price67.96
Drawdown as % of equity-1.81%
 ($1,918)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $9.43
5/15/25 15:59 SQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT QQQ LONG 1,390.500000000 23.55 5/19 9:36 24.17 0.27%
Trade id #151739617
Max drawdown($127)
Time5/16/25 0:00
Quant open343
Worst price23.36
Drawdown as % of equity-0.27%
 $852
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $7.50
5/13/25 15:59 SQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT QQQ LONG 681.500000000 24.12 5/14 15:59 23.74 0.33%
Trade id #151714277
Max drawdown($156)
Time5/14/25 12:33
Quant open341
Worst price23.66
Drawdown as % of equity-0.33%
 ($264)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
5/12/25 15:59 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 480.500000000 66.09 5/13 15:59 69.25 n/a $1,508
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $9.60
5/8/25 15:59 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 737.500000000 59.06 5/12 9:35 64.75 0.45%
Trade id #151668523
Max drawdown($189)
Time5/9/25 0:00
Quant open245
Worst price58.33
Drawdown as % of equity-0.45%
 $4,189
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $9.88
5/5/25 15:59 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 784.500000000 57.25 5/7 14:07 55.47 1.72%
Trade id #151626288
Max drawdown($735)
Time5/7/25 14:07
Quant open392
Worst price55.37
Drawdown as % of equity-1.72%
 ($1,401)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $7.56
4/30/25 15:59 SQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT QQQ LONG 496 30.96 5/2 12:01 28.36 1.47%
Trade id #151581456
Max drawdown($652)
Time5/2/25 12:01
Quant open248
Worst price28.33
Drawdown as % of equity-1.47%
 ($1,300)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $9.92
4/29/25 15:59 SQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT QQQ LONG 964 31.10 4/30 11:09 32.32 n/a $1,171
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
4/25/25 15:59 SQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT QQQ LONG 947.500000000 31.62 4/29 9:50 31.66 0.18%
Trade id #151532989
Max drawdown($78)
Time4/28/25 0:00
Quant open474
Worst price31.45
Drawdown as % of equity-0.18%
 $21
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $11.97
4/24/25 15:59 SQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT QQQ LONG 931 32.71 4/25 13:07 31.88 0.9%
Trade id #151519525
Max drawdown($402)
Time4/25/25 13:07
Quant open466
Worst price31.84
Drawdown as % of equity-0.90%
 ($778)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
4/21/25 15:59 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 651 41.87 4/23 9:30 49.24 n/a $4,793
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
4/16/25 15:59 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 631.500000000 45.26 4/21 10:02 42.17 2.46%
Trade id #151431455
Max drawdown($1,004)
Time4/21/25 10:02
Quant open316
Worst price42.08
Drawdown as % of equity-2.46%
 ($1,960)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.82
4/15/25 15:59 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 294.500000000 49.77 4/16 13:40 45.68 1.46%
Trade id #151415603
Max drawdown($619)
Time4/16/25 13:40
Quant open147
Worst price45.56
Drawdown as % of equity-1.46%
 ($1,211)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.88
4/11/25 15:59 SQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT QQQ LONG 407.500000000 36.22 4/14 15:59 35.49 1.23%
Trade id #151377955
Max drawdown($522)
Time4/14/25 9:31
Quant open204
Worst price33.66
Drawdown as % of equity-1.23%
 ($305)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.16
4/9/25 15:59 SQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT QQQ LONG 771 33.95 4/10 15:59 38.20 n/a $3,272
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
4/8/25 15:59 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 567.500000000 39.07 4/9 15:59 52.85 0.3%
Trade id #151324861
Max drawdown($96)
Time4/9/25 9:30
Quant open284
Worst price38.73
Drawdown as % of equity-0.30%
 $7,815
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
4/4/25 15:59 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 804 41.05 4/7 15:59 41.29 8.69%
Trade id #151290167
Max drawdown($2,432)
Time4/7/25 9:44
Quant open402
Worst price35.00
Drawdown as % of equity-8.69%
 $188
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
Next

Statistics

  • Strategy began
    7/22/2024
  • Suggested Minimum Cap
    $15,000
  • Strategy Age (days)
    351.4
  • Age
    12 months ago
  • What it trades
    Stocks
  • # Trades
    113
  • # Profitable
    56
  • % Profitable
    49.60%
  • Avg trade duration
    2.4 days
  • Max peak-to-valley drawdown
    18.54%
  • drawdown period
    April 03, 2025 - April 07, 2025
  • Cumul. Return
    102.6%
  • Avg win
    $1,136
  • Avg loss
    $640.67
  • Model Account Values (Raw)
  • Cash
    $13,101
  • Margin Used
    ($12,997)
  • Buying Power
    $26,262
  • Ratios
  • W:L ratio
    1.75:1
  • Sharpe Ratio
    1.8
  • Sortino Ratio
    4.04
  • Calmar Ratio
    8.946
  • CORRELATION STATISTICS
  • Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)
    90.59%
  • Correlation to SP500
    0.27590
  • Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life
    11.96%
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (w trading costs)
    106.8%
  • Slump
  • Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
    3.80%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Futures
    n/a
  • Slump
  • Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life
    0.01%
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt Since TOS Status
    n/a
  • Instruments
  • Short Options - Percent Covered
    100.00%
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)
    1.026%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Options
    n/a
  • Percent Trades Stocks
    1.00%
  • Percent Trades Forex
    n/a
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)
    114.2%
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 10% account loss
    29.50%
  • Chance of 20% account loss
    6.00%
  • Chance of 30% account loss
    1.00%
  • Chance of 40% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Automation
  • Percentage Signals Automated
    100.00%
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 50% account loss
    n/a
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (Today)
    986
  • Popularity (Last 6 weeks)
    973
  • Trading Style
  • Any stock shorts? 0/1
    0
  • Popularity
  • C2 Score
    978
  • Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)
    960
  • Trades-Own-System Certification
  • Trades Own System?
    -
  • TOS percent
    n/a
  • Win / Loss
  • Avg Loss
    $641
  • Avg Win
    $1,135
  • Sum Trade PL (losers)
    $36,518.000
  • Age
  • Num Months filled monthly returns table
    13
  • Win / Loss
  • Sum Trade PL (winners)
    $63,537.000
  • # Winners
    56
  • Num Months Winners
    10
  • Dividends
  • Dividends Received in Model Acct
    151
  • AUM
  • AUM (AutoTrader live capital)
    271964
  • Win / Loss
  • # Losers
    57
  • % Winners
    49.6%
  • Frequency
  • Avg Position Time (mins)
    3448.38
  • Avg Position Time (hrs)
    57.47
  • Avg Trade Length
    2.4 days
  • Last Trade Ago
    0
  • Leverage
  • Daily leverage (average)
    2.19
  • Daily leverage (max)
    3.15
  • Regression
  • Alpha
    0.20
  • Beta
    0.50
  • Treynor Index
    0.43
  • Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
  • MAE:Equity, average, all trades
    0.01
  • MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, all trades)
    0.41
  • MAE:Equity, average, winning trades
    0.01
  • MAE:Equity, average, losing trades
    0.01
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades
    -2.293
  • MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    0.04
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades
    0.334
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades
    -0.684
  • Hold-and-Hope Ratio
    -0.436
  • Analysis based on MONTHLY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.81712
  • SD
    0.39730
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    2.05666
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    1.89777
  • df
    10.00000
  • t
    1.96910
  • p
    0.03863
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.21783
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    4.24613
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.31185
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    4.10740
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    9.91232
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    11.41750
  • Upside part of mean
    0.94120
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.12408
  • Upside SD
    0.43857
  • Downside SD
    0.08243
  • N nonnegative terms
    8.00000
  • N negative terms
    3.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    11.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.07672
  • Mean of criterion
    0.81712
  • SD of predictor
    0.10909
  • SD of criterion
    0.39730
  • Covariance
    -0.01682
  • r
    -0.38801
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -1.41313
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.92553
  • Mean Square Error
    0.14898
  • DF error
    9.00000
  • t(b)
    -1.26298
  • p(b)
    0.88083
  • t(a)
    2.24543
  • p(a)
    0.02569
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -3.94422
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    1.11797
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.00689
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    1.85796
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -0.57823
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.92553
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.73091
  • SD
    0.34995
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    2.08861
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    1.92725
  • df
    10.00000
  • t
    1.99969
  • p
    0.03671
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.19191
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    4.28313
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.28727
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    4.14177
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    8.60153
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    10.09990
  • Upside part of mean
    0.85823
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.12732
  • Upside SD
    0.38553
  • Downside SD
    0.08497
  • N nonnegative terms
    8.00000
  • N negative terms
    3.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    11.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.07094
  • Mean of criterion
    0.73091
  • SD of predictor
    0.10877
  • SD of criterion
    0.34995
  • Covariance
    -0.01425
  • r
    -0.37449
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -1.20491
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.81639
  • Mean Square Error
    0.11699
  • DF error
    9.00000
  • t(b)
    -1.21162
  • p(b)
    0.87175
  • t(a)
    2.24192
  • p(a)
    0.02584
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -3.45453
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    1.04471
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.00737
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    1.64015
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -0.60661
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.81639
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.09991
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.13651
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01524
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.03506
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    11.00000
  • Minimum
    0.93125
  • Quartile 1
    1.00219
  • Median
    1.05466
  • Quartile 3
    1.09259
  • Maximum
    1.36213
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.96442
  • Mean of quarter 2
    1.03735
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.08085
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.20254
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.09040
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    1.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.09091
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.36213
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -7.74861
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.02271
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.02271
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -0.27682
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.07465
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.10061
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    2.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00744
  • Quartile 1
    0.02722
  • Median
    0.04700
  • Quartile 3
    0.06677
  • Maximum
    0.08655
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00744
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.08655
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.03956
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    1.09623
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    1.13575
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    13.12230
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    13.12230
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    8.31959
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.80700
  • SD
    0.35545
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    2.27039
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    2.26352
  • df
    248.00000
  • t
    2.21335
  • p
    0.01389
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.24777
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    4.28854
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.24320
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    4.28384
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    5.00500
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    13.24340
  • Upside part of mean
    2.13535
  • Downside part of mean
    -1.32835
  • Upside SD
    0.31988
  • Downside SD
    0.16124
  • N nonnegative terms
    113.00000
  • N negative terms
    136.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    249.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.11116
  • Mean of criterion
    0.80700
  • SD of predictor
    0.20183
  • SD of criterion
    0.35545
  • Covariance
    0.01938
  • r
    0.27014
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.47573
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.75400
  • Mean Square Error
    0.11760
  • DF error
    247.00000
  • t(b)
    4.40946
  • p(b)
    0.00001
  • t(a)
    2.14260
  • p(a)
    0.01656
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.26323
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.68823
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.06088
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    1.44736
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    1.69634
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.75412
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.74545
  • SD
    0.34466
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    2.16285
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    2.15630
  • df
    248.00000
  • t
    2.10851
  • p
    0.01800
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.14128
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    4.18015
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.13689
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    4.17571
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    4.55527
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    12.75270
  • Upside part of mean
    2.08692
  • Downside part of mean
    -1.34147
  • Upside SD
    0.30603
  • Downside SD
    0.16365
  • N nonnegative terms
    113.00000
  • N negative terms
    136.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    249.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.09097
  • Mean of criterion
    0.74545
  • SD of predictor
    0.20088
  • SD of criterion
    0.34466
  • Covariance
    0.01859
  • r
    0.26848
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.46064
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.70354
  • Mean Square Error
    0.11067
  • DF error
    247.00000
  • t(b)
    4.38029
  • p(b)
    0.00001
  • t(a)
    2.06084
  • p(a)
    0.02018
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.25351
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.66777
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.03114
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    1.37594
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    1.61829
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.70354
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.03167
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.04021
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01237
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.02341
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    249.00000
  • Minimum
    0.94854
  • Quartile 1
    0.99255
  • Median
    0.99908
  • Quartile 3
    1.00970
  • Maximum
    1.17633
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.98364
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99654
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00347
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.02941
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.01715
  • Number outliers low
    6.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.02410
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.95906
  • Number of outliers high
    12.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.04819
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.06711
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.34998
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.01783
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.03084
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.37298
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.01464
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.02407
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    20.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00348
  • Quartile 1
    0.01579
  • Median
    0.03128
  • Quartile 3
    0.05537
  • Maximum
    0.13045
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00610
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.02419
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.04436
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.08427
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.03958
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    1.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.05000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.13045
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -0.10728
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.09169
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.11203
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.39839
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.10551
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.17344
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    1.14212
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    1.16703
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    8.94604
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    13.84900
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    29.02010
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, last 6 months only
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    1.20768
  • SD
    0.42712
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    2.82746
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    2.81111
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    1.99931
  • p
    0.41364
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.02919
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    5.61514
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.01833
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    5.60390
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    7.24269
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    15.77780
  • Upside part of mean
    2.63085
  • Downside part of mean
    -1.42317
  • Upside SD
    0.39850
  • Downside SD
    0.16674
  • N nonnegative terms
    62.00000
  • N negative terms
    69.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.08410
  • Mean of criterion
    1.20768
  • SD of predictor
    0.24105
  • SD of criterion
    0.42712
  • Covariance
    0.02578
  • r
    0.25040
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.44370
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    1.17036
  • Mean Square Error
    0.17232
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    2.93759
  • p(b)
    0.34227
  • t(a)
    1.99311
  • p(a)
    0.39052
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.14486
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.74253
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.00857
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    2.33215
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    2.72185
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    1.17036
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    1.11923
  • SD
    0.41048
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    2.72662
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    2.71086
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    1.92801
  • p
    0.41663
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.07004
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    5.51306
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.08047
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    5.50218
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    6.62053
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    15.12180
  • Upside part of mean
    2.55641
  • Downside part of mean
    -1.43718
  • Upside SD
    0.37870
  • Downside SD
    0.16906
  • N nonnegative terms
    62.00000
  • N negative terms
    69.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.05554
  • Mean of criterion
    1.11923
  • SD of predictor
    0.23932
  • SD of criterion
    0.41048
  • Covariance
    0.02433
  • r
    0.24771
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.42487
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    1.09563
  • Mean Square Error
    0.15938
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    2.90389
  • p(b)
    0.34393
  • t(a)
    1.94036
  • p(a)
    0.39330
  • VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)
    0.03200
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.13539
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.71435
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.02155
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    2.21282
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    2.63429
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    1.09563
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.03675
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.04686
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01300
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.02420
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    131.00000
  • Minimum
    0.95472
  • Quartile 1
    0.99181
  • Median
    0.99936
  • Quartile 3
    1.01034
  • Maximum
    1.17633
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.98251
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99615
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00452
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.03568
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.01853
  • Number outliers low
    2.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.01527
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.95865
  • Number of outliers high
    9.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.06870
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.07493
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.22316
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.01846
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.02818
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.23537
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.01514
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.02173
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    16.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00348
  • Quartile 1
    0.01731
  • Median
    0.03128
  • Quartile 3
    0.05300
  • Maximum
    0.09867
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00722
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.02616
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.04183
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.07272
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.03570
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -0.24429
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.08023
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.09167
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.61803
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.08805
  • Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative
    0.25%
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.16691
  • Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?
    -484164000
  • Max Equity Drawdown (num days)
    4
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    1.54918
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    2.14918
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    21.78230
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    29.55320
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    45.86330

Strategy Description

Dear Prospective Trader,

Thank you for checking out my strategy! I have recently reset and changed this strategy to trade the 3x/-3x leveraged ETFs tracking the Nasdaq-100 index. The strategy remains with same with the new leveraged ETFs.

Adaptive Investments is a 100% automated trading strategy that uses the 3x/-3x leveraged Nasdaq-100 ETFs, TQQQ and SQQQ. A nearest-neighbor algorithm is used to predict the close-to-close change of the Nasdaq-100 index on a daily basis using historical time-series data. Just before market close, a prediction of the market’s next day return is performed to determine whether to increase, decrease, or remain at the current leverage points. The basic philosophy of the strategy (as with most machine learning techniques) is to “do what would’ve worked best, given historically similar conditions.” The optimization goal was to maximize daily Sharpe ratio performance while yielding a daily volatility that is twice the volatility of the Nasdaq-100 index.

The high-volume ETFs TQQQ (3x Nasdaq-100 Index) and SQQQ (-3x Nasdaq-100 Index) are used to achieve the desired leverage. By varying the total proportion of investment into this fund, the account leverage against the Nasdaq-100 index is varied from -300% to +300% in increments of 100%. This strategy was backtested and optimized using 20 years of Nasdaq-100 index data. The use of a long-term data set ensures a generalized approach is applied for the various market conditions of the future. All trades are performed using an automated system which interfaces with the Collective 2 API through MATLAB scripts.

A few important notes about this strategy:
* Automation is highly recommended since trade timing is important maintaining the accuracy to the strategy. Trades are placed 15-20 seconds before market close each day, so it is essential that the user employs an automated trading capability which can receive and immediately act upon the signals broadcasted through Collective2.
* This strategy places a maximum of two trades per day just before market close.
* Recent change: Sell stops are now employed on all open day positions
Trade this strategy at Tradier

Summary Statistics

Strategy began
2024-07-22
Suggested Minimum Capital
$15,000
Rank at C2 %
Top 2.2%
Rank # 
#16
# Trades
113
# Profitable
56
% Profitable
49.6%
Net Dividends
$150
Correlation S&P500
0.276
Sharpe Ratio
1.80
Sortino Ratio
4.04
Beta
0.50
Alpha
0.20
Leverage
2.19 Average
3.15 Maximum
Summary
Higher leverage = greater risk.

More information about leverage

Collective2 calculates the maximum leverage used by a strategy in each day. We then display the average of these measurements (i.e. the average daily maximum leverage) and the greatest of these measurements (maximum daily leverage).

Leverage is the ratio of total notional value controlled by a strategy divided by its Model Account equity. Generally higher leverage implies greater risk.

Example of calculation:
The Strategy buys 100 shares of stock at $12 per share.
The Model Account equity during that day is $5,000.
The leverage is: $1200 / $5,000 = 0.24

This is a useful measurement, but it should be considered in context. This measurement doesn't take into account important factors, such as when multiple positions are held that are inversely correlated. Nor does the measurement take into account the volatility of the instruments being held.

In addition, certain asset classes are inherently more leveraged than others. For example, futures contracts are highly leveraged. Forex positions are often even more leveraged than futures.

Latest Activity

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subscribed on started simulation #SUBSCRIBEDDATE#

Most values on this page (including the Strategy Equity Chart, above) have been adjusted by estimated trading commissions and subscription costs.

Some advanced users find it useful to see "raw" Model Account values. These numbers do not include any commissions, fees, subscription costs, or dividend actions.

Strategy developers can "archive" strategies at any time. This means the strategy Model Account is reset to its initial level and the trade list cleared. However, all archived track records are permanently preserved for evaluation by potential subscribers.

About the results you see on this Web site

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Material assumptions and methods used when calculating results

The following are material assumptions used when calculating any hypothetical monthly results that appear on our web site.

  • Profits are reinvested. We assume profits (when there are profits) are reinvested in the trading strategy.
  • Starting investment size. For any trading strategy on our site, hypothetical results are based on the assumption that you invested the starting amount shown on the strategy's performance chart. In some cases, nominal dollar amounts on the equity chart have been re-scaled downward to make current go-forward trading sizes more manageable. In these cases, it may not have been possible to trade the strategy historically at the equity levels shown on the chart, and a higher minimum capital was required in the past.
  • All fees are included. When calculating cumulative returns, we try to estimate and include all the fees a typical trader incurs when AutoTrading using AutoTrade technology. This includes the subscription cost of the strategy, plus any per-trade AutoTrade fees, plus estimated broker commissions if any.
  • "Max Drawdown" Calculation Method. We calculate the Max Drawdown statistic as follows. Our computer software looks at the equity chart of the system in question and finds the largest percentage amount that the equity chart ever declines from a local "peak" to a subsequent point in time (thus this is formally called "Maximum Peak to Valley Drawdown.") While this is useful information when evaluating trading systems, you should keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, future drawdowns may be larger than the historical maximum drawdowns you see here.

Trading is risky

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

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Suggested Minimum Capital

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