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Schulenberg SPYPRED5 ETF

Stocks · Started Nov 2020

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
12.6%
Max Drawdown
22.0%
Trades
572
Win Trades
47.0%
Profit Factor
1.40
Win Months
26.8%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20204.21.96.1
20217.98.72.54.32.2-0.4-0.42.4-8.34.32.82.731.7
2022-1.45.64.3-6.4-1.4-5.210.4-6.6-1.010.13.3-5.54.4
2023-0.70.21.2-0.5-4.63.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-1.6
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began11/9/2020
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age71 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades572
# Profitable269
% Profitable47.0%
Avg trade duration12.6 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown22.0%
drawdown periodNov 28, 2022 - April 27, 2023
Annual Return (Compounded)12.6%
Avg win$389
Avg loss$260

Ratios

W:L ratio1.35
Sharpe Ratio0.39
Sortino Ratio0.59
Calmar Ratio1.07

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.39
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life115.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)15.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)12.6%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)7.8%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity8.5%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.7%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss67.0%
Chance of 20% account loss30.5%
Chance of 30% account loss15.0%
Chance of 40% account loss3.5%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)418
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$260
Avg Win$389
# Winners269
Sum Trade PL (losers)$78,830
Sum Trade PL (winners)$104,718
Num Months Winners19
# Losers303
% Winners47.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct1761

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table71

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)18118.57
Avg Position Time (hrs)301.98
Avg Trade Length12.60
Last Trade Ago1174

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)0.92
Daily leverage (max)2

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.25
Treynor Index0.05

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades7.92
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.53
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.35
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.45
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.13

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.15
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.88
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.86
df31
t1.43
p0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.09
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.36
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.08
Sortino ratio1.67
Upside Potential Ratio3.52
Upside part of mean0.32
Downside part of mean-0.17
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms16
N negative terms16
N of observations32
Mean of predictor0.08
Mean of criterion0.15
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance0.02
r0.64
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.63
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.10
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error30
t(b)4.52
p(b)0.00
t(a)1.24
p(a)0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.91
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.28
Treynor index (mean / b)0.24
Jensen alpha (a)0.10
Mean0.14
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.80
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.78
df31
t1.31
p0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.01
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.43
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.00
Sortino ratio1.45
Upside Potential Ratio3.29
Upside part of mean0.31
Downside part of mean-0.17
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms16
N negative terms16
N of observations32
Mean of predictor0.06
Mean of criterion0.14
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance0.02
r0.63
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.61
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.10
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error30
t(b)4.46
p(b)0.00
t(a)1.19
p(a)0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.90
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.27
Treynor index (mean / b)0.22
Jensen alpha (a)0.10
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.09
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean0.15
SD0.14
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.02
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.02
df705
t1.68
p0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.22
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.17
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.22
Sortino ratio1.55
Upside Potential Ratio9.73
Upside part of mean0.91
Downside part of mean-0.77
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms361
N negative terms345
N of observations706
Mean of predictor0.08
Mean of criterion0.15
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.14
Covariance0.01
r0.50
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.39
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.07
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error704
t(b)15.45
p(b)0
t(a)1.52
p(a)0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.26
Treynor index (mean / b)0.38
Jensen alpha (a)0.11
Mean0.14
SD0.14
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.95
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.95
df705
t1.56
p0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.15
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.24
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.15
Sortino ratio1.43
Upside Potential Ratio9.59
Upside part of mean0.91
Downside part of mean-0.77
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms361
N negative terms345
N of observations706
Mean of predictor0.06
Mean of criterion0.14
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.14
Covariance0.01
r0.50
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.39
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.11
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error704
t(b)15.48
p(b)0
t(a)1.48
p(a)0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.26
Treynor index (mean / b)0.35
Jensen alpha (a)0.11
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.01
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.12
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.12
df130
t-0.08
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.89
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.65
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.89
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.65
Sortino ratio-0.17
Upside Potential Ratio7.45
Upside part of mean0.56
Downside part of mean-0.57
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms55
N negative terms76
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.24
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance0.00
r0.28
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.19
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.06
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error129
t(b)3.37
p(b)0.32
t(a)-0.39
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.23
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.07
Jensen alpha (a)-0.06
Mean-0.02
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.17
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.17
df130
t-0.12
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.95
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.60
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.94
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.60
Sortino ratio-0.25
Upside Potential Ratio7.36
Upside part of mean0.56
Downside part of mean-0.58
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms55
N negative terms76
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion-0.02
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance0.00
r0.28
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.19
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.06
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error129
t(b)3.36
p(b)0.32
t(a)-0.42
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.08
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.23
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.10
Jensen alpha (a)-0.06
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations32
Minimum0.91
Quartile 10.98
Median1.00
Quartile 31.05
Maximum1.12
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41.08
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.10
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.06
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.02
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.08
Number of observations706
Minimum0.97
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.03
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low12
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high22
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.03
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.05
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.97
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.03
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low4
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.39
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.37
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations5
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.05
Median0.05
Quartile 30.06
Maximum0.13
Mean of quarter 10.03
Mean of quarter 20.05
Mean of quarter 30.06
Mean of quarter 40.13
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.20
Mean of outliers low0.01
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.13
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations34
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.15
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.07
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high0.15
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.24
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.12
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.15
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.10
Number of observations4
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.01
Median0.03
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.06
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.06
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-328771040
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)150
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.21
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.18
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.39
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.39
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.08
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.21
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.18
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.18
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.58
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal10.18
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.01
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.01
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.16
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.16
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.67

Trading record

Placed 595 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
SH long1261Jun 26, 2023Jun 27, 2023$8
MSTR long25Jun 23, 2023Jun 27, 2023($369)
WWD long78Jun 8, 2023Jun 27, 2023$280
STAG long237Jun 8, 2023Jun 27, 2023($294)
MRVL long129Jun 1, 2023Jun 27, 2023($208)
PCAR long110May 31, 2023Jun 27, 2023$935
RMD long39Jun 8, 2023Jun 26, 2023$57
GIS long114Jun 20, 2023Jun 26, 2023$24
LSI long65Jun 8, 2023Jun 23, 2023($219)
SH long656Jun 16, 2023Jun 20, 2023$113
GIS long114Jun 15, 2023Jun 16, 2023($34)
SH long637Jun 14, 2023Jun 15, 2023$19
IEP long289Jun 12, 2023Jun 14, 2023$636
RE long22Jun 6, 2023Jun 8, 2023$86
SH long531Jun 5, 2023Jun 6, 2023$27
RE long22May 22, 2023Jun 5, 2023($644)
SLGN long169May 31, 2023Jun 1, 2023($142)
SH long1065May 25, 2023May 31, 2023($133)
PCAR long114May 24, 2023May 25, 2023($143)
SLGN long173May 24, 2023May 25, 2023($154)
SH long1093May 23, 2023May 24, 2023$181
PCAR long106May 15, 2023May 23, 2023($177)
SLGN long182May 22, 2023May 23, 2023($31)
SH long1150May 16, 2023May 22, 2023($270)
SLGN long159May 15, 2023May 16, 2023($100)
SH long1022May 9, 2023May 15, 2023$39
SLGN long164May 8, 2023May 10, 2023($131)
AVT long184May 8, 2023May 9, 2023($324)
SH long1033May 5, 2023May 8, 2023($160)
HELE long81May 1, 2023May 5, 2023($89)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.