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VIX Trend Taxable

Equity · Stocks · Started Mar 2021

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
15.2%
Max Drawdown
70.2%
Trades
8
Win Trades
62.5%
Profit Factor
5.70
Win Months
53.8%

About this strategy

The Strategy -- It’s been said that being short volatility is the perfect trade (https://sixfigureinvesting.com/2016/10/is-shorting-uvxy-tvix-vxx-the-perfect-trade/). This strategy is designed to capture the substantial rewards of being short volatility while minimizing the inevitable sharp setbacks.

This is a three factor model composed of 1) The VIX term stucture, 2) Market Breadth, and 3) Momentum. Each of these individual components have been optimized, then combined into a diffusion signal to be either short or long volatility.

Trade Instruments -- Trades will be long or short the available exchange traded products (ETP’s) related to the volatility index (VIX). Availablity of these instruments changes over time. At present this will mean being short VXX (short-volatility) and long either VXX or UVXY (long-volatility).

Trend-following

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
202122.77.46.96.2-1.3-7.9-7.317.0-4.520.769.9
2022-9.0-5.9-9.8-20.05.3-6.810.98.2-15.712.210.04.0-21.4
202317.2-4.9-9.417.33.633.59.00.05.5-25.332.816.3117.3
2024-0.26.14.7-8.018.2-0.1-5.5-26.4-8.5-9.29.3-8.4-30.4
20257.5-6.6-15.8-31.14.612.010.610.06.7-3.8-2.316.2-3.3
2026-2.2-5.8-27.622.57.00.016.4

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began3/1/2021
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age67 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades8
# Profitable5
% Profitable62.5%
Avg trade duration254.2 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown70.2%
drawdown periodJuly 17, 2024 - April 20, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)15.2%
Avg win$28,645
Avg loss$8,321

Ratios

W:L ratio5.74
Sharpe Ratio0.42
Sortino Ratio0.59
Calmar Ratio0.68

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.64
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life98.6%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)20.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)15.2%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)15.2%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity71.2%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.4%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss80.0%
Chance of 20% account loss51.5%
Chance of 30% account loss23.5%
Chance of 40% account loss9.5%
Chance of 50% account loss1.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)1.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$8,321
Avg Win$28,645
# Winners5
Sum Trade PL (losers)$24,962
Sum Trade PL (winners)$143,227
Num Months Winners35
# Losers3
% Winners62.5%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table66

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)366027.66
Avg Position Time (hrs)6100.46
Avg Trade Length254.20
Last Trade Ago1587

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)0.67
Daily leverage (max)1.60

Regression

Alpha0
Beta1.75
Treynor Index0.03

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.13
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.04
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.20
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.09
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades1.65
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-1.11
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.40
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-3.06
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.52

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.63
SD0.82
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.77
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.74
df20
t1.02
p0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.26
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.76
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.24
Sortino ratio1.67
Upside Potential Ratio3.39
Upside part of mean1.29
Downside part of mean-0.65
Upside SD0.73
Downside SD0.38
N nonnegative terms11
N negative terms10
N of observations21
Mean of predictor0.41
Mean of criterion0.63
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion0.82
Covariance0.12
r0.44
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.19
Mean Square Error0.57
DF error19
t(b)2.15
p(b)0.23
t(a)0.32
p(a)0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.46
Treynor index (mean / b)0.59
Jensen alpha (a)0.19
Mean0.34
SD0.76
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.45
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.43
df20
t0.60
p0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.93
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.05
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.92
Sortino ratio0.73
Upside Potential Ratio2.32
Upside part of mean1.09
Downside part of mean-0.75
Upside SD0.58
Downside SD0.47
N nonnegative terms11
N negative terms10
N of observations21
Mean of predictor0.35
Mean of criterion0.34
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion0.76
Covariance0.10
r0.40
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.99
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.00
Mean Square Error0.51
DF error19
t(b)1.93
p(b)0.25
t(a)-0.01
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.18
Treynor index (mean / b)0.35
Jensen alpha (a)-0.00
VaR(95%)0.28
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.34
VaR(95%)0.12
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.24
Mean0.61
SD0.71
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.87
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.86
df458
t1.15
p0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.35
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.62
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.35
Sortino ratio1.21
Upside Potential Ratio7.37
Upside part of mean3.73
Downside part of mean-3.12
Upside SD0.49
Downside SD0.51
N nonnegative terms248
N negative terms211
N of observations459
Mean of predictor0.38
Mean of criterion0.61
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.71
Covariance0.11
r0.60
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.59
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.01
Mean Square Error0.32
DF error457
t(b)16.07
p(b)0
t(a)0.01
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.78
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.84
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.85
Treynor index (mean / b)0.39
Jensen alpha (a)0.01
Mean0.35
SD0.73
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.49
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.48
df458
t0.64
p0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.97
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.00
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.97
Sortino ratio0.64
Upside Potential Ratio6.51
Upside part of mean3.62
Downside part of mean-3.27
Upside SD0.47
Downside SD0.56
N nonnegative terms248
N negative terms211
N of observations459
Mean of predictor0.35
Mean of criterion0.35
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.73
Covariance0.11
r0.59
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.60
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.20
Mean Square Error0.35
DF error457
t(b)15.54
p(b)0
t(a)-0.45
p(a)0.67
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.80
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.68
Treynor index (mean / b)0.22
Jensen alpha (a)-0.20
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.09
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean1.79
SD1.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.51
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.50
df130
t1.07
p0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.28
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.28
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.28
Sortino ratio2.11
Upside Potential Ratio9.22
Upside part of mean7.83
Downside part of mean-6.04
Upside SD0.83
Downside SD0.85
N nonnegative terms76
N negative terms55
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.23
Mean of criterion1.79
SD of predictor0.42
SD of criterion1.19
Covariance0.31
r0.63
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.79
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.42
Mean Square Error0.86
DF error129
t(b)9.14
p(b)0.13
t(a)-0.32
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-3.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.22
Treynor index (mean / b)1.00
Jensen alpha (a)-0.42
Mean1.05
SD1.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.85
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.85
df130
t0.60
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.92
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.63
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.92
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.62
Sortino ratio1.12
Upside Potential Ratio7.94
Upside part of mean7.51
Downside part of mean-6.45
Upside SD0.79
Downside SD0.95
N nonnegative terms76
N negative terms55
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.15
Mean of criterion1.05
SD of predictor0.42
SD of criterion1.23
Covariance0.31
r0.61
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.82
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.04
Mean Square Error0.95
DF error129
t(b)8.85
p(b)0.14
t(a)-0.74
p(a)0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.42
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-3.81
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.74
Treynor index (mean / b)0.58
Jensen alpha (a)-1.04
VaR(95%)0.11
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.14
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations21
Minimum0.58
Quartile 10.93
Median1.00
Quartile 31.16
Maximum1.76
Mean of quarter 10.85
Mean of quarter 20.96
Mean of quarter 31.08
Mean of quarter 41.37
Inter Quartile Range0.23
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.58
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.76
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.65
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.19
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.55
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.65
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.18
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations459
Minimum0.70
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.22
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.05
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low34
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.91
Number of outliers high33
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.09
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.44
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.08
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.25
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.07
Number of observations131
Minimum0.70
Quartile 10.97
Median1.01
Quartile 31.04
Maximum1.22
Mean of quarter 10.91
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41.09
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.76
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.19
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.03
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.10
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.06
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.13

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.15
Quartile 10.27
Median0.38
Quartile 30.40
Maximum0.42
Mean of quarter 10.15
Mean of quarter 20.38
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.42
Inter Quartile Range0.14
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations27
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.03
Quartile 30.09
Maximum0.68
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.07
Mean of quarter 40.27
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high0.56
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.30
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.27
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.47
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.70
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.32
Expected Shortfall (regression method)1.06
Number of observations15
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.07
Quartile 30.14
Maximum0.68
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.04
Mean of quarter 30.12
Mean of quarter 40.30
Inter Quartile Range0.13
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high0.68
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.51
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.35
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.77
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.67
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.33
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-388154912
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)277
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.52
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.45
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.06
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.06
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.30
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.54
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.46
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.68
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.74
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal5.32
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.44
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.95
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.86
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs6.41
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal13.78

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
VIXY long1370Mar 17, 2022Apr 14, 2022($3,688)
VXX short5295Sep 24, 2021Mar 16, 2022($8,415)
SVXY long1750Feb 14, 2022Feb 14, 2022$2,235
VXZ long2690Nov 19, 2021Dec 1, 2021$1,394
UVXY short980Oct 8, 2021Nov 8, 2021$4,591
VXX long2440Jul 23, 2021Sep 16, 2021($12,888)
VXX short1685Mar 2, 2021Jul 23, 2021$48,472

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.