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SP Futures Millions

Futures · Futures · Started Jul 2021

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
18.6%
Max Drawdown
87.2%
Trades
48
Win Trades
89.6%
Profit Factor
5.80
Win Months
6.3%

Trend-following

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
202133.3-10.4-73.6629.41.24.3142.7
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began7/1/2021
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age63 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades48
# Profitable43
% Profitable89.6%
Avg trade duration3.0 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown87.2%
drawdown periodSept 15, 2021 - Oct 01, 2021
Annual Return (Compounded)18.6%
Avg win$2,077
Avg loss$3,095

Ratios

W:L ratio5.77
Sharpe Ratio0.44
Sortino Ratio0.80
Calmar Ratio2.15

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.11
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life77.1%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)64.1%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)18.6%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)19.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity22.3%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss93.0%
Chance of 20% account loss81.0%
Chance of 30% account loss69.5%
Chance of 40% account loss65.5%
Chance of 50% account loss48.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)33.5%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)20.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)6.5%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)1.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$3,095
Avg Win$2,077
# Winners43
Sum Trade PL (losers)$15,476
Sum Trade PL (winners)$89,320
Num Months Winners4
# Losers5
% Winners89.6%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table63

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)4265.12
Avg Position Time (hrs)71.08
Avg Trade Length3
Last Trade Ago1723

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)17.73
Daily leverage (max)59.84

Regression

Alpha0.08
Beta0.44
Treynor Index0.21

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.08
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.45
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.11
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.08
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades3.51
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)2.45
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades2.23
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-3.43
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.28

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean3.26
SD3.46
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.94
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.87
df10
t0.90
p0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.01
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.21
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.95
Sortino ratio5.42
Upside Potential Ratio6.66
Upside part of mean4.00
Downside part of mean-0.74
Upside SD3.38
Downside SD0.60
N nonnegative terms3
N negative terms8
N of observations11
Mean of predictor0.45
Mean of criterion3.26
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion3.46
Covariance0.12
r0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)2.77
Mean Square Error13.16
DF error9
t(b)0.32
p(b)0.38
t(a)0.68
p(a)0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-6.60
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta8.77
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-6.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha12.01
Treynor index (mean / b)3.01
Jensen alpha (a)2.77
Mean0.96
SD1.83
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.52
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.48
df10
t0.50
p0.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.57
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.57
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.54
Sortino ratio1.09
Upside Potential Ratio2.27
Upside part of mean2.00
Downside part of mean-1.04
Upside SD1.53
Downside SD0.88
N nonnegative terms3
N negative terms8
N of observations11
Mean of predictor0.39
Mean of criterion0.96
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion1.83
Covariance0.11
r0.18
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.99
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.57
Mean Square Error3.61
DF error9
t(b)0.55
p(b)0.30
t(a)0.27
p(a)0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-3.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta5.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-4.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha5.33
Treynor index (mean / b)0.97
Jensen alpha (a)0.57
VaR(95%)0.55
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.63
VaR(95%)0.18
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.37
Mean1.63
SD1.24
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.31
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.31
df259
t1.31
p0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.66
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.28
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.66
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.28
Sortino ratio2.20
Upside Potential Ratio6.96
Upside part of mean5.15
Downside part of mean-3.52
Upside SD1.00
Downside SD0.74
N nonnegative terms70
N negative terms190
N of observations260
Mean of predictor0.61
Mean of criterion1.63
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion1.24
Covariance0.05
r0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.48
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.33
Mean Square Error1.52
DF error258
t(b)2.05
p(b)0.02
t(a)1.07
p(a)0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.95
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.78
Treynor index (mean / b)3.35
Jensen alpha (a)1.33
Mean0.89
SD1.22
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.73
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.73
df259
t0.73
p0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.70
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.24
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.70
Sortino ratio1.04
Upside Potential Ratio5.56
Upside part of mean4.74
Downside part of mean-3.85
Upside SD0.87
Downside SD0.85
N nonnegative terms70
N negative terms190
N of observations260
Mean of predictor0.56
Mean of criterion0.89
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion1.22
Covariance0.05
r0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.50
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.60
Mean Square Error1.46
DF error258
t(b)2.17
p(b)0.02
t(a)0.49
p(a)0.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.96
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.80
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.00
Treynor index (mean / b)1.76
Jensen alpha (a)0.60
VaR(95%)0.11
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.14
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.03
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.44
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.94
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.44
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6807007768084480
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)5.86578854287273e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations11
Minimum0.43
Quartile 10.98
Median1
Quartile 31.06
Maximum4.22
Mean of quarter 10.78
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 42.22
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.43
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.18
Mean of outliers high2.77
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.18
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.22
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)4.20
VaR(95%) (regression method)1.09
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations260
Minimum0.62
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.53
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.08
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low46
Percentage of outliers low0.18
Mean of outliers low0.92
Number of outliers high54
Percentage of outliers high0.21
Mean of outliers high1.09
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.12
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.11
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.05
Quartile 10.19
Median0.32
Quartile 30.45
Maximum0.59
Mean of quarter 10.05
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.59
Inter Quartile Range0.27
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations12
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.04
Median0.14
Quartile 30.19
Maximum0.70
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.08
Mean of quarter 30.16
Mean of quarter 40.42
Inter Quartile Range0.15
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high0.70
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.07
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.45
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.62
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.99
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.70
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-392056224
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)16
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.61
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.69
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.88
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.88
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.68
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.49
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.49
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.15
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs3.55
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal10.65
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 3 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
ES Z1long5Nov 23, 2021Dec 17, 2021($12,103)
ES Z1long5Nov 15, 2021Nov 16, 2021$1,398
ES Z1long5Oct 29, 2021Nov 12, 2021$20,523
ES Z1long9Sep 13, 2021Oct 29, 2021$22,303
ES Z1long3Sep 13, 2021Sep 13, 2021$239
ES U1long5Sep 10, 2021Sep 12, 2021$2,960
ES U1short10Aug 27, 2021Sep 10, 2021$820
ES U1short5Aug 27, 2021Aug 27, 2021$398
ES U1long5Aug 26, 2021Aug 26, 2021$260
ES U1short4Aug 26, 2021Aug 26, 2021$318
ES U1short5Aug 23, 2021Aug 26, 2021$1,198
ES U1long5Aug 20, 2021Aug 20, 2021$2,085
ES U1long4Aug 19, 2021Aug 20, 2021$1,781
ES U1long4Aug 19, 2021Aug 19, 2021$5,168
ES U1long4Aug 19, 2021Aug 19, 2021$3,368
ES U1long3Aug 18, 2021Aug 18, 2021$126
ES U1short4Aug 4, 2021Aug 18, 2021$2,118
ES U1long4Aug 4, 2021Aug 4, 2021$1,068
ES U1short4Aug 3, 2021Aug 4, 2021$518
ES U1short3Aug 3, 2021Aug 3, 2021$164
ES U1long3Aug 3, 2021Aug 3, 2021$164
ES U1short4Aug 1, 2021Aug 2, 2021$718
ES U1short3Jul 30, 2021Jul 30, 2021$389
ES U1long2Jul 30, 2021Jul 30, 2021$284
ES U1short4Jul 27, 2021Jul 29, 2021$743
ES U1short3Jul 26, 2021Jul 27, 2021$2,376
ES U1short2Jul 25, 2021Jul 25, 2021$234
ES U1short3Jul 25, 2021Jul 25, 2021$539
ES U1long2Jul 23, 2021Jul 23, 2021$2,259
ES U1long2Jul 14, 2021Jul 23, 2021$934

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.