Sliced Bread
- hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
- 5.6%
- Max Drawdown
- 38.3%
- Trades
- 679
- Win Trades
- 40.9%
- Profit Factor
- 1.30
- Win Months
- 11.7%
About this strategy
NOTE: Significant changes were made to Sliced Bread on 9/1/08 to reduce open trade equity drawdowns. These changes should smooth the equity curve and improve the Sharpe ratio going forward.
Cant watch the markets all day? Or perhaps you are already trading one of the "gun slinger" systems and you need some long term perspective to diversify your portfolio. Sliced Bread may be just what you need.
When evaluating a trading system, ask yourself these questions:
- Does its trading record depend upon taking very large positions - thus exposing you to excess risk? Sliced Bread typically risks 3%.
- Does it take profits on small moves, thus requiring accurate fills? Sliced Bread was developed using $150 for slippage, so bad fills tend to have little effect on profitability. Trades are for large trends, not tiny intraday movements.
- Do you have to sit in front of the computer all day? Sliced Breads orders are distributed after the market close giving adequate time for order entry. No need to follow the market intraday.
- Is the system well diversified? Are you exposed to large risk because you are only in one or a small number of markets?
Sliced Bread is a long term position trading system. As diversification is key to lowering risk, Sliced Bread trades in nearly all futures markets - metals, currencies, softs, grains, meats, energies, etc. Trade orders are placed in the late afternoon or early evening timeframe. (Exceptions: 1) Contract rollovers are usually done intraday to take advantage of better liquidity. We will notify you of when we are rolling and you can do so at your convenience. 2) Sometimes stops are adjusted intraday. This is only done if the new stops are sufficiently far from the market that receiving them in a timely manner is not critical.) Neither intraday monitoring of the markets nor autotrading is necessary. All trades have protective stops. Note that protective stops are positioned considerably away from the market and are intended to be for "emergency" purposes only - i.e. in the event of some drastic news event. Positions are normally exited when conditions suggest that the trend has matured or changed. Occasionally partial position exits are used, especially if increased market volatility causes trade risk to exceed parameters.
Long term trades are given considerable "leeway", and as such equity in individual trades can vary substantially. Therefore it is recommended that you take most of the trades to gain the diversification needed to prevent large swings in portfolio equity, and to avoid missing that occasional "big one". However, see comments below regarding trade selection for small portfolio size.
Most trades are entered with stops, but there will be an occasional market order. Sometimes there are additional trade signals for a given market after the initial trade has been entered. These "extra" trades are optional, but they often have better success rates than the original trade. These trades are not "averaging down", but are based upon new system trade signals generated independently of the original trade entries.
Trade size risks 3% to 5% per trade, with a maximum of 10% in any one market group.
Smaller accounts may be better served by my other trading system, "Sliced Bread Lite". It restricts itself to fewer markets and smaller position size. However, Sliced Bread can be traded with less capital by following a few guidelines:
1) Because of the large simulated equity for Sliced Bread on C2, trade sizes can be large, and trades are taken in volatile markets. For smaller accounts, consider using the "mini" contracts offered in many markets. These are quite liquid in the grains, metals, and energies.
2) Take only 1 or perhaps 2 trades in a given market group. Sliced Bread may be long corn, soybeans, beanoil, and meal, but you should limit yourself to a selection of markets within a group that is comfortable and does not over expose your account to highly correlated markets. However, it would be better to trade a mini in both corn and soybeans rather than just a single large contract in one market. Remember: Diversification.
3) Gauge your trades from the recommened Sliced Bread trade size. Examples:
a) If we are trading just one contract, dont trade that market unless a "mini" alternative exists. A trade quantity of "1" in the simulated account means that this market is highly volatile, and thus high risk.
b) If we are trading multiple contracts, adjust your trade size by 1/2 or less and remember to limit the number of trades in a market group. Again, the mini contracts can be useful here. If we are trading 2 soybeans, for example, and you want to trade at 1/4 size, you can trade 2 or 3 mini beans.
4) Very small accounts can consider taking only the "extra" trades - those trades entered after the initial trade. These trades tend to have a better risk/reward profile.
Disclosure: I take many, but not all, of the trades presented here. They are not autotraded, but rather placed with a broker within a reasonable timeframe of being distributed to subscribers. As most trades are entered and exited with stops, hopefully I am at neither an advantage nor a disadvantage to anyone subscribing to this service.
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | -3.7 | 9.2 | -5.5 | -1.5 | 4.1 | 12.9 | 5.5 | 21.4 | |||||
| 2006 | 8.3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 28.3 | 16.5 | -1.7 | -2.6 | 3.3 | -6.1 | 5.9 | 12.4 | -8.1 | 75.9 |
| 2007 | -9.0 | -4.5 | -3.1 | 14.5 | 10.7 | 11.6 | -9.8 | -5.6 | -2.9 | -6.3 | -5.9 | 4.2 | -9.3 |
| 2008 | 15.5 | 29.5 | 1.9 | -24.3 | -2.2 | 7.3 | -2.4 | -10.8 | 24.0 | 25.9 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 72.7 |
| 2009 | 4.5 | 1.9 | -9.7 | -1.1 | 20.2 | -11.4 | -8.7 | -2.0 | 4.3 | -2.4 | 7.1 | -3.4 | -4.7 |
| 2010 | -1.5 | 2.6 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.9 |
| 2011 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2012 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2013 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2014 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2015 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2016 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2017 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2018 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2019 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2020 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2021 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2022 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2023 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2024 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Statistics
Overview
| Strategy began | 6/22/2005 |
|---|---|
| Suggested Minimum Capital | $100,000 |
| Age | 258 months |
| What it trades | Futures |
| # Trades | 679 |
| # Profitable | 278 |
| % Profitable | 40.9% |
| Avg trade duration | 18.7 days |
| Max peak-to-valley drawdown | 38.3% |
| drawdown period | March 16, 2008 - Aug 21, 2008 |
| Annual Return (Compounded) | 5.6% |
| Avg win | $4,074 |
| Avg loss | $2,218 |
Ratios
| W:L ratio | 1.27 |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.27 |
| Sortino Ratio | 0.41 |
| Calmar Ratio | 0.08 |
CORRELATION STATISTICS
| Correlation to SP500 | -0.08 |
|---|---|
| Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life | 528.0% |
| Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu) | -309.1% |
Return Statistics
| Ann Return (w trading costs) | 5.6% |
|---|---|
| Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant) | 0.1% |
| Return Pcnt Since TOS Status | 0.0% |
| Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees) | 6.0% |
Slump
| Current Slump as Pcnt Equity | 28.1% |
|---|---|
| Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life | 0.8% |
Instruments
| Percent Trades Forex | 0.0% |
|---|---|
| Percent Trades Futures | 1.0% |
| Percent Trades Options | 0.0% |
| Percent Trades Stocks | 0.0% |
Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
| Chance of 10% account loss | 100.0% |
|---|---|
| Chance of 20% account loss | 100.0% |
| Chance of 30% account loss | 100.0% |
| Chance of 40% account loss | 0.0% |
| Chance of 50% account loss | 0.0% |
| Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
Automation
| Percentage Signals Automated | 0.0% |
|---|
Popularity
| Popularity (Today) | 0 |
|---|---|
| Popularity (Last 6 weeks) | 0 |
| Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale) | 0 |
Trading Style
| Any stock shorts? 0/1 | 0 |
|---|
Trades-Own-System Certification
| Trades Own System? | 0 |
|---|---|
| TOS percent | 0.0% |
Win / Loss
| Avg Loss | $2,218 |
|---|---|
| Avg Win | $4,074 |
| # Winners | 278 |
| Sum Trade PL (losers) | $889,587 |
| Sum Trade PL (winners) | $1,132,659 |
| Num Months Winners | 31 |
| # Losers | 401 |
| % Winners | 40.9% |
Dividends
| Dividends Received in Model Acct | 0 |
|---|
Age
| Num Months filled monthly returns table | 256 |
|---|
Frequency
| Avg Position Time (mins) | 26899.27 |
|---|---|
| Avg Position Time (hrs) | 448.32 |
| Avg Trade Length | 18.70 |
| Last Trade Ago | 6031 |
Regression
| Alpha | 0.01 |
|---|---|
| Beta | -0.06 |
| Treynor Index | -0.23 |
Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
| MAE:Equity, average, all trades | 0.01 |
|---|---|
| MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | 0.01 |
| MAE:Equity, average, losing trades | 0.01 |
| MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | — |
| MAE:Equity, average, winning trades | 0.01 |
| MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | — |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades | 6.55 |
| MAE:PL (avg, all trades) | 0.17 |
| MAE:PL (avg, losing trades) | — |
| MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats | 17.76 |
| MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats | 68.04 |
| MAE:PL (avg, winning trades) | — |
| MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy | — |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades | 0.32 |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades | -1.10 |
| Hold-and-Hope Ratio | 0.15 |
RATIO STATISTICS
| Mean | 0.14 |
|---|---|
| SD | 0.42 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.34 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.33 |
| df | 93 |
| t | 0.94 |
| p | 0.17 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.37 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 1.04 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -0.37 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 1.04 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.57 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 1.69 |
| Upside part of mean | 0.42 |
| Downside part of mean | -0.28 |
| Upside SD | 0.34 |
| Downside SD | 0.25 |
| N nonnegative terms | 66 |
| N negative terms | 28 |
| N of observations | 94 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.18 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.14 |
| SD of predictor | 0.25 |
| SD of criterion | 0.42 |
| Covariance | -0.01 |
| r | -0.14 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | -0.24 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.18 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.18 |
| DF error | 92 |
| t(b) | -1.35 |
| p(b) | 0.91 |
| t(a) | 1.20 |
| p(a) | 0.12 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.59 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.11 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.12 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.49 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | -0.60 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.18 |
| Mean | 0.05 |
| SD | 0.44 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.12 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.12 |
| df | 93 |
| t | 0.33 |
| p | 0.37 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.58 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0.82 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -0.58 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0.82 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.16 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 1.15 |
| Upside part of mean | 0.38 |
| Downside part of mean | -0.33 |
| Upside SD | 0.29 |
| Downside SD | 0.33 |
| N nonnegative terms | 66 |
| N negative terms | 28 |
| N of observations | 94 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.14 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.05 |
| SD of predictor | 0.25 |
| SD of criterion | 0.44 |
| Covariance | -0.01 |
| r | -0.06 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | -0.10 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.07 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.19 |
| DF error | 92 |
| t(b) | -0.54 |
| p(b) | 0.70 |
| t(a) | 0.41 |
| p(a) | 0.34 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.45 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.26 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.25 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.38 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | -0.54 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.07 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.18 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.23 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.04 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.09 |
| Mean | 0.37 |
| SD | 0.82 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.45 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.45 |
| df | 2064 |
| t | 1.26 |
| p | 0.10 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.25 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 1.15 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -0.25 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 1.15 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.77 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 4.41 |
| Upside part of mean | 2.11 |
| Downside part of mean | -1.74 |
| Upside SD | 0.67 |
| Downside SD | 0.48 |
| N nonnegative terms | 1488 |
| N negative terms | 577 |
| N of observations | 2065 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.27 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.37 |
| SD of predictor | 0.51 |
| SD of criterion | 0.82 |
| Covariance | -0.07 |
| r | -0.17 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | -0.27 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.44 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.66 |
| DF error | 2063 |
| t(b) | -7.86 |
| p(b) | 1 |
| t(a) | 1.53 |
| p(a) | 0.06 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.34 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.21 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.13 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 1.01 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | -1.34 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.44 |
| Mean | 0.05 |
| SD | 0.80 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.06 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.06 |
| df | 2064 |
| t | 0.18 |
| p | 0.43 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.63 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0.76 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -0.63 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0.76 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.09 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 3.24 |
| Upside part of mean | 1.94 |
| Downside part of mean | -1.89 |
| Upside SD | 0.53 |
| Downside SD | 0.60 |
| N nonnegative terms | 1488 |
| N negative terms | 577 |
| N of observations | 2065 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.14 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.05 |
| SD of predictor | 0.51 |
| SD of criterion | 0.80 |
| Covariance | -0.07 |
| r | -0.17 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | -0.26 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.09 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.63 |
| DF error | 2063 |
| t(b) | -7.67 |
| p(b) | 1 |
| t(a) | 0.31 |
| p(a) | 0.38 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.33 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.19 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.47 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.64 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | -0.20 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.09 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.08 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.10 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.01 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.02 |
| Mean | 0 |
| SD | 0 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0 |
| df | 0 |
| t | 0 |
| p | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0 |
| Sortino ratio | 0 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 0 |
| Upside part of mean | 0 |
| Downside part of mean | 0 |
| Upside SD | 0 |
| Downside SD | 0 |
| N nonnegative terms | 131 |
| N negative terms | 0 |
| N of observations | 131 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.86 |
| Mean of criterion | 0 |
| SD of predictor | 0.53 |
| SD of criterion | 0 |
| Covariance | 0 |
| r | 0 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0 |
| Mean Square Error | 0 |
| DF error | 0 |
| t(b) | 0 |
| p(b) | 0 |
| t(a) | 0 |
| p(a) | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0 |
| Mean | 0 |
| SD | 0 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0 |
| df | 0 |
| t | 0 |
| p | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0 |
| Sortino ratio | 0 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 0 |
| Upside part of mean | 0 |
| Downside part of mean | 0 |
| Upside SD | 0 |
| Downside SD | 0 |
| N nonnegative terms | 131 |
| N negative terms | 0 |
| N of observations | 131 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.72 |
| Mean of criterion | 0 |
| SD of predictor | 0.54 |
| SD of criterion | 0 |
| Covariance | 0 |
| r | 0 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0 |
| Mean Square Error | 0 |
| DF error | 0 |
| t(b) | 0 |
| p(b) | 0 |
| t(a) | 0 |
| p(a) | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0 |
| VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl) | 0.08 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0 |
| VaR(95%) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0 |
ORDER STATISTICS
| Number of observations | 94 |
|---|---|
| Minimum | 0.45 |
| Quartile 1 | 1.00 |
| Median | 1 |
| Quartile 3 | 1.02 |
| Maximum | 1.58 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.91 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1.00 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1.00 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.14 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.02 |
| Number outliers low | 13 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.14 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0.85 |
| Number of outliers high | 17 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.18 |
| Mean of outliers high | 1.18 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | -0.57 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.01 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.01 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0.11 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.08 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.13 |
| Number of observations | 2065 |
| Minimum | 0.42 |
| Quartile 1 | 1.00 |
| Median | 1 |
| Quartile 3 | 1.00 |
| Maximum | 2.21 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.97 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1.00 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1.00 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.03 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.00 |
| Number outliers low | 381 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.18 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0.97 |
| Number of outliers high | 390 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.19 |
| Mean of outliers high | 1.04 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0.82 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.01 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.06 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0.59 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.02 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.06 |
| Number of observations | 131 |
| Minimum | 1 |
| Quartile 1 | 1 |
| Median | 1 |
| Quartile 3 | 1 |
| Maximum | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0 |
| Mean of outliers high | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0 |
DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
| Number of observations | 7 |
|---|---|
| Minimum | 0.06 |
| Quartile 1 | 0.12 |
| Median | 0.21 |
| Quartile 3 | 0.28 |
| Maximum | 0.59 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.07 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.18 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0.25 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.45 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.15 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 1 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.14 |
| Mean of outliers high | 0.59 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0 |
| Number of observations | 17 |
| Minimum | 0.01 |
| Quartile 1 | 0.07 |
| Median | 0.13 |
| Quartile 3 | 0.24 |
| Maximum | 0.63 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.04 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.11 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0.20 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.39 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.17 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 1 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.06 |
| Mean of outliers high | 0.63 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | -0.07 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.40 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.50 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0.43 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.47 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.82 |
| Number of observations | 0 |
| Minimum | 0 |
| Quartile 1 | 0 |
| Median | 0 |
| Quartile 3 | 0 |
| Maximum | 0 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0 |
| Mean of outliers high | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0 |
| Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life? | -395956064 |
| Max Equity Drawdown (num days) | 158 |
| Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative | 0.0% |
COMBINED STATISTICS
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 0.06 |
|---|---|
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 0.05 |
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | 0.09 |
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 0.12 |
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 0.24 |
| j156mfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| j157mfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 0.06 |
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 0.05 |
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | 0.08 |
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 0.13 |
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 0.55 |
| j313dfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| j314dfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 0 |
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 0 |
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | 0 |
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 0 |
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 0 |
Trading record
Placed 9 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.
| Symbol | Side | Qty | Opened | Closed | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CT H0 | long | 1 | Nov 30, 2009 | Mar 9, 2010 | $3,702 |
| QGC G0 | long | 1 | Nov 30, 2009 | Feb 24, 2010 | ($8,698) |
| EU Z9 | long | 1 | Nov 4, 2009 | Dec 8, 2009 | ($1,508) |
| CT Z9 | long | 1 | Oct 15, 2009 | Dec 1, 2009 | $1,707 |
| QGC Z9 | long | 4 | Aug 24, 2009 | Nov 30, 2009 | $36,158 |
| QCL Z9 | long | 1 | Oct 13, 2009 | Nov 20, 2009 | $1,352 |
| US Z9 | short | 1 | Oct 26, 2009 | Nov 17, 2009 | ($3,008) |
| S F0 | short | 1 | Nov 13, 2009 | Nov 16, 2009 | ($1,021) |
| S F0 | short | 1 | Nov 10, 2009 | Nov 13, 2009 | ($1,358) |
| BP Z9 | short | 1 | Sep 18, 2009 | Nov 9, 2009 | ($2,664) |
| S F0 | short | 1 | Nov 1, 2009 | Nov 2, 2009 | ($1,458) |
| OJ F0 | long | 1 | Oct 27, 2009 | Nov 2, 2009 | ($803) |
| OJ X9 | long | 2 | Sep 16, 2009 | Oct 27, 2009 | $4,507 |
| KC Z9 | long | 1 | Oct 8, 2009 | Oct 23, 2009 | ($889) |
| S X9 | short | 1 | Sep 15, 2009 | Oct 21, 2009 | ($2,796) |
| QSI Z9 | long | 2 | Oct 5, 2009 | Oct 16, 2009 | $134 |
| LB X9 | short | 2 | Aug 17, 2009 | Oct 15, 2009 | ($698) |
| QNG Z9 | long | 1 | Oct 4, 2009 | Oct 13, 2009 | $102 |
| BO Z9 | short | 1 | Sep 15, 2009 | Oct 12, 2009 | ($1,202) |
| QHO Z9 | short | 1 | Oct 4, 2009 | Oct 8, 2009 | ($2,944) |
| CT Z9 | long | 1 | Sep 7, 2009 | Sep 28, 2009 | $542 |
| QSI Z9 | long | 1 | Aug 21, 2009 | Sep 25, 2009 | $9,242 |
| KC Z9 | long | 1 | Sep 14, 2009 | Sep 24, 2009 | ($1,133) |
| C Z9 | long | 2 | Sep 15, 2009 | Sep 20, 2009 | ($2,916) |
| LC V9 | long | 2 | Sep 16, 2009 | Sep 17, 2009 | ($416) |
| LH V9 | long | 2 | Sep 16, 2009 | Sep 16, 2009 | ($276) |
| S X9 | long | 1 | Aug 25, 2009 | Sep 1, 2009 | ($2,708) |
| C Z9 | long | 1 | Aug 25, 2009 | Sep 1, 2009 | ($808) |
| EU Z9 | short | 1 | Aug 25, 2009 | Aug 27, 2009 | ($883) |
| OJ X9 | long | 1 | Aug 20, 2009 | Aug 25, 2009 | ($608) |
Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.