Collective2 Collective2
Featured Strategy Enter Here +31.9% Cumul. Return since Jul 29, 2026 Hypothetical

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Prophet Alpha
(153868456)

Created by: KennethChambers KennethChambers
Started: 12/2025
Stocks
Last trade: 2 days ago
Trading style: Equity Non-hedged Equity Trend-following

Subscriptions not available

No subscriptions are currently available for this strategy because the strategy manager has capped the maximum number of subscribers.

Subscription terms. Subscriptions to this system cost $99.00 per month.

C2Star

C2Star is a certification program for trading strategies. In order to become "C2Star Certified," a strategy must apply tight risk controls, and must exhibit excellent performance characteristics, including low drawdowns.

You can read more about C2Star certification requirements here.

Note that: all trading strategies are risky, and C2Star Certification does not imply that a strategy is low risk.

Trading Category: Equity
Non-hedged Equity
Category: Equity

Non-hedged Equity

Predominantly long equities, although some hedging with short sales of stocks and/or stock index options. Commonly known as "stock-pickers."
Trend-following
Category: Equity

Trend-following

Tries to take advantage of long, medium or short-term moves that seem to play out in various markets. Typically, trend-following analysis is backward looking; that is, it attempts to recognize and profit from already-established trends.
109.5%
Cumul. Return

Rate of Return Calculations

Overview

To comply with NFA regulations, we display Cumulative Rate of Return for strategies with a track record of less than one year. For strategies with longer track records, we display Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return.

How Cumulative Rate of Return is calculated

= (Ending_equity - Starting_equity) / Starting_equity

Remember that, following NFA requirements, strategy subscription costs and estimated commissions are included in marked-to-market equity calculations.

All results are hypothetical.

(15.3%)
Max Drawdown
9060
Num Trades
32.6%
Win Trades
1.7 : 1
Profit Factor
100.0%
Win Months
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes system fee and Typical Broker commissions and fees)
 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2025                                                                             +0.3%+0.3%
2026+17.1%+23.5%+3.2%+7.7%+2.7%+3.1%+21.6%+0.8%                        +108.8%

Model Account Details

A trading strategy on Collective2. Follow it in your broker account, or use a free simulated trading account.

Advanced users may want to use this information to adjust their AutoTrade scaling, or merely to understand the magnitudes of the nearby chart.

LiveSignal

Community chat and highlights.
Open LiveSignal

Live Chat

Since early july i've made some modifications to the system that should help with commission fees. core strategy has not changed - it remains the same since december last year.
Was speaking to another member about a discrepancy in a few trades a while back- and after some investigation I have a clear explanation: The account started at 100k, and then i sc...
Hi Prophet Alpha,
What's position sizing and stop loss of this strategy? With such small scalping, do we get similar profits and no slippages in execution and timing? Which brokerage executes withou...
@bullishShieldAlpha Position sizing The system sizes each position off the real C2 model account equity (currently ~$42k), not a fixed dollar amount. Per-trade it deploys 10% of av...
Hi — thanks for explaining the equity-sizing issue. That accounts for the oversized quantities, but I noticed two July 17 trades in the C2 CSV that seem to involve a separate prici...
Open LiveSignal

Trading Record

This strategy has placed 8,336 trades in real-life brokerage accounts. To see live brokerage data, select Show AutoTrade Data, and click on a Live AutoTrade Indicator symbol.

Show AutoTrade data Hide AutoTrade data
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Long
Short
Both
Win
Loss
Both
Opened Date/TimeSymbolDescriptionSideQuantAvg PriceClosed Date/TimeAvg PriceDrawdownP/L
8/7/26 14:06 META META PLATFORMS INC. CLASS A LONG 5 592.37 8/7 15:17 593.11 0.03%
Trade id #157187775
Max drawdown($10)
Time8/7/26 14:46
Quant open5
Worst price590.18
Drawdown as % of equity-0.03%
 $4
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.10
8/7/26 15:13 SLV ISHARES SILVER TRUST LONG 45 57.42 8/7 15:17 57.49 0%
Trade id #157188663
Max drawdown($0)
Time8/7/26 15:15
Quant open45
Worst price57.41
Drawdown as % of equity-0.00%
 $2
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.90
8/7/26 12:25 NVDA NVIDIA LONG 11 222.74 8/7 15:16 222.92 0.03%
Trade id #157186432
Max drawdown($13)
Time8/7/26 13:25
Quant open11
Worst price221.55
Drawdown as % of equity-0.03%
 $2
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.22
8/7/26 15:08 SLV ISHARES SILVER TRUST LONG 45 57.42 8/7 15:11 57.45 n/a $1
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.90
8/7/26 15:05 SLV ISHARES SILVER TRUST LONG 45 57.38 8/7 15:07 57.41 n/a $0
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.90
8/7/26 15:01 SLV ISHARES SILVER TRUST LONG 45 57.31 8/7 15:02 57.36 n/a $1
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.90
8/7/26 14:47 GOOGL ALPHABET INC CLASS A LONG 7 353.84 8/7 14:54 354.10 n/a $2
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.14
8/7/26 14:49 MSTR STRATEGY INC CLASS A LONG 22 97.11 8/7 14:53 96.94 0.02%
Trade id #157188317
Max drawdown($6)
Time8/7/26 14:53
Quant open22
Worst price96.82
Drawdown as % of equity-0.02%
 ($4)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.44
8/7/26 14:40 PLTR PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES INC. CLASS A LONG 15 170.53 8/7 14:42 170.34 0.02%
Trade id #157188151
Max drawdown($7)
Time8/7/26 14:42
Quant open15
Worst price170.01
Drawdown as % of equity-0.02%
 ($3)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.30
8/7/26 14:14 SLV ISHARES SILVER TRUST LONG 45 57.18 8/7 14:34 57.20 0.01%
Trade id #157187873
Max drawdown($4)
Time8/7/26 14:23
Quant open45
Worst price57.08
Drawdown as % of equity-0.01%
 $0
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.90
8/7/26 14:18 TSLA TESLA INC. LONG 6 327.01 8/7 14:20 327.22 0%
Trade id #157187920
Max drawdown($0)
Time8/7/26 14:20
Quant open6
Worst price327.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.00%
 $1
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.12
8/7/26 14:08 AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC. C LONG 5 481.58 8/7 14:12 481.35 0%
Trade id #157187792
Max drawdown($1)
Time8/7/26 14:12
Quant open5
Worst price481.21
Drawdown as % of equity-0.00%
 ($1)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.10
8/7/26 13:47 PLTR PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES INC. CLASS A LONG 13 170.94 8/7 13:58 171.26 0.01%
Trade id #157187464
Max drawdown($3)
Time8/7/26 13:51
Quant open13
Worst price170.70
Drawdown as % of equity-0.01%
 $4
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.26
8/7/26 13:46 XLK TECHNOLOGY SELECT SECTOR SPDR LONG 11 187.41 8/7 13:51 187.34 0%
Trade id #157187454
Max drawdown($1)
Time8/7/26 13:51
Quant open11
Worst price187.29
Drawdown as % of equity-0.00%
 ($1)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.22
8/7/26 13:19 MSTR STRATEGY INC CLASS A LONG 26 98.60 8/7 13:46 98.56 0.07%
Trade id #157187229
Max drawdown($28)
Time8/7/26 13:33
Quant open26
Worst price97.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.07%
 ($2)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.52
8/7/26 13:34 META META PLATFORMS INC. CLASS A LONG 5 591.84 8/7 13:45 592.05 0%
Trade id #157187369
Max drawdown($1)
Time8/7/26 13:36
Quant open5
Worst price591.53
Drawdown as % of equity-0.00%
 $1
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.10
8/7/26 13:26 META META PLATFORMS INC. CLASS A LONG 5 591.30 8/7 13:33 591.43 0%
Trade id #157187286
Max drawdown($0)
Time8/7/26 13:28
Quant open5
Worst price591.15
Drawdown as % of equity-0.00%
 $1
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.10
8/7/26 13:22 ORCL ORACLE CORP LONG 19 144.35 8/7 13:22 144.33 n/a $0
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.38
8/7/26 13:19 XLK TECHNOLOGY SELECT SECTOR SPDR LONG 17 187.46 8/7 13:21 187.44 0%
Trade id #157187221
Max drawdown($0)
Time8/7/26 13:21
Quant open17
Worst price187.43
Drawdown as % of equity-0.00%
 $0
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.34
8/7/26 13:13 TSLA TESLA INC. LONG 10 326.95 8/7 13:15 326.77 0.01%
Trade id #157187197
Max drawdown($2)
Time8/7/26 13:15
Quant open10
Worst price326.73
Drawdown as % of equity-0.01%
 ($2)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.20
8/7/26 13:07 PLTR PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES INC. CLASS A LONG 15 170.53 8/7 13:10 170.56 n/a $0
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.30
8/7/26 13:05 SLV ISHARES SILVER TRUST LONG 56 57.09 8/7 13:08 57.15 n/a $2
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.12
8/7/26 13:01 ORCL ORACLE CORP LONG 22 144.96 8/7 13:04 144.99 n/a $1
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.44
8/7/26 12:58 ORCL ORACLE CORP LONG 22 145.21 8/7 12:59 145.06 0.01%
Trade id #157187048
Max drawdown($3)
Time8/7/26 12:59
Quant open22
Worst price145.06
Drawdown as % of equity-0.01%
 ($3)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.44
8/7/26 12:28 GOOGL ALPHABET INC CLASS A LONG 6 354.39 8/7 12:49 355.32 0%
Trade id #157186516
Max drawdown($0)
Time8/7/26 12:32
Quant open6
Worst price354.35
Drawdown as % of equity-0.00%
 $6
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.12
8/7/26 12:30 PLTR PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES INC. CLASS A LONG 10 169.54 8/7 12:42 169.85 0.01%
Trade id #157186547
Max drawdown($4)
Time8/7/26 12:32
Quant open10
Worst price169.13
Drawdown as % of equity-0.01%
 $3
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.20
8/7/26 12:30 META META PLATFORMS INC. CLASS A LONG 4 593.34 8/7 12:41 593.52 0.01%
Trade id #157186538
Max drawdown($2)
Time8/7/26 12:32
Quant open4
Worst price592.67
Drawdown as % of equity-0.01%
 $1
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.08
8/7/26 12:25 TSLA TESLA INC. LONG 9 329.33 8/7 12:36 328.82 0.02%
Trade id #157186425
Max drawdown($10)
Time8/7/26 12:32
Quant open9
Worst price328.20
Drawdown as % of equity-0.02%
 ($5)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.18
8/7/26 12:26 PLTR PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES INC. CLASS A LONG 13 169.83 8/7 12:28 169.57 0.01%
Trade id #157186478
Max drawdown($3)
Time8/7/26 12:28
Quant open13
Worst price169.57
Drawdown as % of equity-0.01%
 ($3)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.26
8/7/26 12:25 ORCL ORACLE CORP LONG 13 145.73 8/7 12:27 145.67 0%
Trade id #157186440
Max drawdown($1)
Time8/7/26 12:27
Quant open13
Worst price145.59
Drawdown as % of equity-0.00%
 ($1)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.26

Statistics

  • Strategy began
    12/18/2025
  • Suggested Minimum Cap
    $35,000
  • Strategy Age (days)
    233.71
  • Age
    8 months ago
  • What it trades
    Stocks
  • # Trades
    9060
  • # Profitable
    2950
  • % Profitable
    32.60%
  • Avg trade duration
    4.7 hours
  • Max peak-to-valley drawdown
    15.27%
  • drawdown period
    Feb 11, 2026 - April 21, 2026
  • Cumul. Return
    109.5%
  • Avg win
    $21.18
  • Avg loss
    $6.11
  • Model Account Values (Raw)
  • Cash
    $45,100
  • Margin Used
    $0
  • Buying Power
    $45,100
  • Ratios
  • W:L ratio
    1.67:1
  • Sharpe Ratio
    2.97
  • Sortino Ratio
    10.08
  • Calmar Ratio
    27.542
  • CORRELATION STATISTICS
  • Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)
    94.96%
  • Correlation to SP500
    -0.20580
  • Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life
    14.51%
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (w trading costs)
    212.8%
  • Slump
  • Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
    0.50%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Futures
    n/a
  • Slump
  • Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life
    0.02%
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt Since TOS Status
    n/a
  • Instruments
  • Short Options - Percent Covered
    100.00%
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)
    1.095%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Options
    n/a
  • Percent Trades Stocks
    1.00%
  • Percent Trades Forex
    n/a
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)
    254.2%
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 10% account loss
    11.50%
  • Chance of 20% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 30% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 40% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Automation
  • Percentage Signals Automated
    100.00%
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 50% account loss
    n/a
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (Today)
    981
  • Popularity (Last 6 weeks)
    972
  • Trading Style
  • Any stock shorts? 0/1
    1
  • Popularity
  • C2 Score
    924
  • Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)
    986
  • Trades-Own-System Certification
  • Trades Own System?
    -
  • TOS percent
    n/a
  • Win / Loss
  • Avg Loss
    $6
  • Avg Win
    $21
  • Sum Trade PL (losers)
    $37,338.000
  • Age
  • Num Months filled monthly returns table
    9
  • Win / Loss
  • Sum Trade PL (winners)
    $62,479.000
  • # Winners
    2950
  • Num Months Winners
    9
  • Dividends
  • Dividends Received in Model Acct
    -26
  • AUM
  • AUM (AutoTrader live capital)
    192049
  • Win / Loss
  • # Losers
    6110
  • % Winners
    32.6%
  • Frequency
  • Avg Position Time (mins)
    279.55
  • Avg Position Time (hrs)
    4.66
  • Avg Trade Length
    0.2 days
  • Last Trade Ago
    2
  • Leverage
  • Daily leverage (average)
    0.96
  • Daily leverage (max)
    4.18
  • Regression
  • Alpha
    0.35
  • Beta
    -0.51
  • Treynor Index
    -0.64
  • Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
  • MAE:Equity, average, all trades
    0.00
  • MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats
    41.06
  • MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
    -
  • MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats
    35.22
  • MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, all trades)
    -0.79
  • MAE:Equity, average, winning trades
    0.00
  • MAE:Equity, average, losing trades
    0.00
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades
    48.590
  • MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    0.00
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades
    0.361
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades
    -1.312
  • Hold-and-Hope Ratio
    0.020
  • Analysis based on MONTHLY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    1.52447
  • SD
    0.40870
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    3.73000
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    3.23998
  • df
    6.00000
  • t
    2.84884
  • p
    0.01461
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.34991
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    6.93271
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.08628
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    6.39368
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    0.00000
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    0.00000
  • Upside part of mean
    1.52447
  • Downside part of mean
    0.00000
  • Upside SD
    0.58038
  • Downside SD
    0.00000
  • N nonnegative terms
    7.00000
  • N negative terms
    0.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    7.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.16420
  • Mean of criterion
    1.52447
  • SD of predictor
    0.15406
  • SD of criterion
    0.40870
  • Covariance
    -0.02028
  • r
    -0.32214
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.85458
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    1.66479
  • Mean Square Error
    0.17965
  • DF error
    5.00000
  • t(b)
    -0.76088
  • p(b)
    0.75947
  • t(a)
    2.84683
  • p(a)
    0.01798
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -3.74186
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    2.03270
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.16148
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    3.16810
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -1.78388
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    1.66479
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    1.38089
  • SD
    0.35243
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    3.91820
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    3.40345
  • df
    6.00000
  • t
    2.99257
  • p
    0.01212
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.47180
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    7.18626
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.19511
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    6.61179
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    0.00000
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    0.00000
  • Upside part of mean
    1.38089
  • Downside part of mean
    0.00000
  • Upside SD
    0.51514
  • Downside SD
    0.00000
  • N nonnegative terms
    7.00000
  • N negative terms
    0.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    7.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.15325
  • Mean of criterion
    1.38089
  • SD of predictor
    0.15120
  • SD of criterion
    0.35243
  • Covariance
    -0.01746
  • r
    -0.32759
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.76356
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    1.49791
  • Mean Square Error
    0.13305
  • DF error
    5.00000
  • t(b)
    -0.77529
  • p(b)
    0.76339
  • t(a)
    2.99060
  • p(a)
    0.01521
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -3.29535
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    1.76823
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.21032
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    2.78549
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -1.80848
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    1.49791
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.05093
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.08979
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.00000
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    7.00000
  • Minimum
    1.01445
  • Quartile 1
    1.03606
  • Median
    1.11822
  • Quartile 3
    1.17579
  • Maximum
    1.33291
  • Mean of quarter 1
    1.01448
  • Mean of quarter 2
    1.08792
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.12034
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.28207
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.13973
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    0.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00000
  • Quartile 1
    0.00000
  • Median
    0.00000
  • Quartile 3
    0.00000
  • Maximum
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.00000
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00000
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    2.12204
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    2.97843
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    0.00000
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    0.00000
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    33.17110
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    1.35339
  • SD
    0.32553
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    4.15744
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    4.13829
  • df
    163.00000
  • t
    3.28926
  • p
    0.34284
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.63331
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    6.66933
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.62060
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    6.65597
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    14.97550
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    22.35310
  • Upside part of mean
    2.02013
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.66674
  • Upside SD
    0.32272
  • Downside SD
    0.09037
  • N nonnegative terms
    95.00000
  • N negative terms
    69.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    164.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.22585
  • Mean of criterion
    1.35339
  • SD of predictor
    0.13709
  • SD of criterion
    0.32553
  • Covariance
    -0.00972
  • r
    -0.21787
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.51735
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    1.47000
  • Mean Square Error
    0.10157
  • DF error
    162.00000
  • t(b)
    -2.84122
  • p(b)
    0.60893
  • t(a)
    3.63106
  • p(a)
    0.36283
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.87691
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.15778
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.67066
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    2.26981
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -2.61602
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    1.47023
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    1.29988
  • SD
    0.31407
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    4.13883
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    4.11976
  • df
    163.00000
  • t
    3.27453
  • p
    0.34348
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.61506
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    6.65036
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.60243
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    6.63709
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    14.26660
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    21.62970
  • Upside part of mean
    1.97075
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.67087
  • Upside SD
    0.31014
  • Downside SD
    0.09111
  • N nonnegative terms
    95.00000
  • N negative terms
    69.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    164.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.21643
  • Mean of criterion
    1.29988
  • SD of predictor
    0.13703
  • SD of criterion
    0.31407
  • Covariance
    -0.00951
  • r
    -0.22105
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.50666
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    1.40954
  • Mean Square Error
    0.09440
  • DF error
    162.00000
  • t(b)
    -2.88492
  • p(b)
    0.61053
  • t(a)
    3.61239
  • p(a)
    0.36348
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.85346
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.15985
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.63901
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    2.18006
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -2.56561
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    1.40954
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.02659
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.03443
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00520
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.01078
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    164.00000
  • Minimum
    0.97511
  • Quartile 1
    0.99759
  • Median
    1.00040
  • Quartile 3
    1.00650
  • Maximum
    1.13634
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.99065
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99921
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00276
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.02804
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00891
  • Number outliers low
    7.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.04268
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.98036
  • Number of outliers high
    17.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.10366
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.05145
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.26946
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00841
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.01440
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.04413
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00896
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.01315
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    18.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00011
  • Quartile 1
    0.00173
  • Median
    0.00802
  • Quartile 3
    0.02422
  • Maximum
    0.09690
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00091
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00433
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.01300
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.05773
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.02249
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    3.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.16667
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.07854
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -0.08942
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.05887
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.07757
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    1.13497
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.05722
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    2.00680
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    2.66886
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    27.54220
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    46.23300
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    77.51690
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, last 6 months only
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.88354
  • SD
    0.25757
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    3.43033
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    3.41050
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    2.42561
  • p
    0.39596
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.62099
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    6.22685
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.60786
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    6.21313
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    9.89299
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    17.56920
  • Upside part of mean
    1.56909
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.68556
  • Upside SD
    0.24665
  • Downside SD
    0.08931
  • N nonnegative terms
    69.00000
  • N negative terms
    62.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.27445
  • Mean of criterion
    0.88354
  • SD of predictor
    0.14440
  • SD of criterion
    0.25757
  • Covariance
    -0.00585
  • r
    -0.15740
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.28075
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.96059
  • Mean Square Error
    0.06520
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    -1.81030
  • p(b)
    0.59979
  • t(a)
    2.64185
  • p(a)
    0.35702
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.58760
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.02609
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.24119
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    1.67999
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -3.14703
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.96059
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.85027
  • SD
    0.25131
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    3.38339
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    3.36384
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    2.39242
  • p
    0.39732
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.57502
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    6.17920
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.56203
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    6.16564
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    9.44336
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    17.10210
  • Upside part of mean
    1.53986
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.68959
  • Upside SD
    0.23943
  • Downside SD
    0.09004
  • N nonnegative terms
    69.00000
  • N negative terms
    62.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.26398
  • Mean of criterion
    0.85027
  • SD of predictor
    0.14428
  • SD of criterion
    0.25131
  • Covariance
    -0.00586
  • r
    -0.16164
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.28155
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.92459
  • Mean Square Error
    0.06198
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    -1.86031
  • p(b)
    0.60245
  • t(a)
    2.60931
  • p(a)
    0.35866
  • VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)
    0.02700
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.58099
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.01789
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.22351
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    1.62568
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -3.01999
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.92459
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.02205
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.02835
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00580
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.01161
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    131.00000
  • Minimum
    0.97511
  • Quartile 1
    0.99722
  • Median
    1.00038
  • Quartile 3
    1.00523
  • Maximum
    1.08932
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.99079
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99886
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00216
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.02164
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00801
  • Number outliers low
    5.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.03817
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.97961
  • Number of outliers high
    11.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.08397
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.04440
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00720
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00741
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.01036
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -0.06462
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00919
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.01274
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    14.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00011
  • Quartile 1
    0.00173
  • Median
    0.00891
  • Quartile 3
    0.02422
  • Maximum
    0.09690
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00093
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00606
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.01439
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.05611
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.02249
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    2.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.14286
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.08571
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.29275
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.06386
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.10861
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    2.38262
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.06862
  • Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative
    n/a
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?
    -368929000
  • Max Equity Drawdown (num days)
    69
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    1.05960
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    1.34028
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    13.83150
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    23.88770
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    47.27020

Strategy Description

Trade this strategy at Tradier

LiveSignal

Community chat and highlights.
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Since early july i've made some modifications to the system that should help with commission fees. core strategy has not changed - it remains the same since december last year.
Was speaking to another member about a discrepancy in a few trades a while back- and after some investigation I have a clear explanation: The account started at 100k, and then i sc...
Hi Prophet Alpha,
What's position sizing and stop loss of this strategy? With such small scalping, do we get similar profits and no slippages in execution and timing? Which brokerage executes withou...
@bullishShieldAlpha Position sizing The system sizes each position off the real C2 model account equity (currently ~$42k), not a fixed dollar amount. Per-trade it deploys 10% of av...
Hi — thanks for explaining the equity-sizing issue. That accounts for the oversized quantities, but I noticed two July 17 trades in the C2 CSV that seem to involve a separate prici...
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Summary Statistics

Strategy began
2025-12-18
Suggested Minimum Capital
$35,000
Rank at C2 %
Top 7.6%
Rank # 
#317
# Trades
9060
# Profitable
2950
% Profitable
32.6%
Net Dividends
($26)
Correlation S&P500
-0.206
Sharpe Ratio
2.97
Sortino Ratio
10.08
Beta
-0.51
Alpha
0.35
Leverage
0.96 Average
4.18 Maximum
Summary
Higher leverage = greater risk.

More information about leverage

Collective2 calculates the maximum leverage used by a strategy in each day. We then display the average of these measurements (i.e. the average daily maximum leverage) and the greatest of these measurements (maximum daily leverage).

Leverage is the ratio of total notional value controlled by a strategy divided by its Model Account equity. Generally higher leverage implies greater risk.

Example of calculation:
The Strategy buys 100 shares of stock at $12 per share.
The Model Account equity during that day is $5,000.
The leverage is: $1200 / $5,000 = 0.24

This is a useful measurement, but it should be considered in context. This measurement doesn't take into account important factors, such as when multiple positions are held that are inversely correlated. Nor does the measurement take into account the volatility of the instruments being held.

In addition, certain asset classes are inherently more leveraged than others. For example, futures contracts are highly leveraged. Forex positions are often even more leveraged than futures.

Latest Activity

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Most values on this page (including the Strategy Equity Chart, above) have been adjusted by estimated trading commissions and subscription costs.

Some advanced users find it useful to see "raw" Model Account values. These numbers do not include any commissions, fees, subscription costs, or dividend actions.

Strategy developers can "archive" strategies at any time. This means the strategy Model Account is reset to its initial level and the trade list cleared. However, all archived track records are permanently preserved for evaluation by potential subscribers.

About the results you see on this Web site

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Material assumptions and methods used when calculating results

The following are material assumptions used when calculating any hypothetical monthly results that appear on our web site.

  • Profits are reinvested. We assume profits (when there are profits) are reinvested in the trading strategy.
  • Starting investment size. For any trading strategy on our site, hypothetical results are based on the assumption that you invested the starting amount shown on the strategy's performance chart. In some cases, nominal dollar amounts on the equity chart have been re-scaled downward to make current go-forward trading sizes more manageable. In these cases, it may not have been possible to trade the strategy historically at the equity levels shown on the chart, and a higher minimum capital was required in the past.
  • All fees are included. When calculating cumulative returns, we try to estimate and include all the fees a typical trader incurs when AutoTrading using AutoTrade technology. This includes the subscription cost of the strategy, plus any per-trade AutoTrade fees, plus estimated broker commissions if any.
  • "Max Drawdown" Calculation Method. We calculate the Max Drawdown statistic as follows. Our computer software looks at the equity chart of the system in question and finds the largest percentage amount that the equity chart ever declines from a local "peak" to a subsequent point in time (thus this is formally called "Maximum Peak to Valley Drawdown.") While this is useful information when evaluating trading systems, you should keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, future drawdowns may be larger than the historical maximum drawdowns you see here.

Trading is risky

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

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Suggested Minimum Capital

This is our estimate of the minimum amount of capital to follow a strategy, assuming you use the smallest reasonable AutoTrade Scaling % for the strategy.