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FOREX Formula

Forex · Started Oct 2005

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
1.9%
Max Drawdown
27.3%
Trades
325
Win Trades
70.5%
Profit Factor
1.10
Win Months
5.6%

About this strategy

Q: How are trading signals entered?

A: Trades are generated using the same Tradestation strategy for each of the currencies traded. Trades can occur any time from Sunday afternoon when Forex trading begins, continuously until trading closes Friday afternoon. Trades can be both long or short. I typically close the trades manually since there is no profit target generated by the strategy. For protection, there is a trailing percent stop loss generated after a trade is made.


Q: What currencies are traded?

A: Trade alerts will be long/short for GBP/USD, EUR/USD, USD/CHF and USD/JPY.


Q: What is the time frame the trades are generated on?

A: Each currency is analyzed separately on 60 minute bars, 24 hours per day from the open on Sunday afternoon until the close on Friday afternoon. Trades typically last from a few hours to a few days. It all depends on how the price is trending. Historical trades show that trades will last on average a few hours. I personally like to get in and get out if the profit is there.


Q: What is a typical trade signal like?

A: Signals are stop based instead of market orders. If the entry price is not met, it may be altered by the system on the next 60 minute bar. When trades are exited, it may end up with a reversal signal (e.g. exit long and enter short). A downfall to this system is that stop orders are added, altered and cancelled by the strategy quite often before a trade is made. This may test your patience if you are following the signals manually!


Q: What would be the preferred method to use this system?

A: Due to 24 hour trading of the currency market and the use of stop orders for entries/exits, it is recommended that the signals be traded as closely to the time that the order becomes valid. The most accurate results will occur if the signals are auto-traded, if the Instant Trade Messenger is used or if the trade signals are sent to you by e-mail or to a mobile device. There are brokers who accept Collective2 signals for Forex auto-trading. I have the C2 signals routed to Interactive Brokers through Tradebullet and am pleased with the consistency of orders getting routed properly and timely.


Q: What are the trade sizes used?

A: Since subscribers are using their own money (as am I!), I want this service to start out with minimum drawdown, so we will start with trading 10 mini-lots of $10,000. As the account balance increases, so will the number of mini-lots we trade. We will maintain realistic trade sizes though. I could have easily used the entire theoretical $100,000 in this account, but who really has that much to start with? With each mini-lot traded we risk $1 per pip of the base currency, thus 10 mini-lots is $10 per pip. It is your option to use larger or smaller trade amounts. Just adjust typical trade results that are listed accordingly.
10/26 - Have upped trades to 20 mini-lots
2/27 - to 25 mini-lots
5/19 - to 50 mini lots


Q: How about those drawdowns in early November and December of 2005?

A: The 2 drawdown periods certainly were disappointing. It required a closer look at the strategy to better optimize it. A strategy change went into affect on Monday 12/19 and it has been performing fairly well since. Note that this change was not to just tweak the parameters in order to get a curve that worked for the past. I read a bit on Larry Williams and considered his theory on "trade day of the week".


Q: And the big loss in June, 2006?

A: After a large run up in the preceeding weeks I got cocky and added big to a losing position. It took 2 months to recapture the equity, so you could say I learned a very valuable lesson that wont be repeated. I will stick to the initial Stop Loss posted and will not add to a position.


Thanks for visiting!

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20054.7-3.0-6.0-4.5
20069.80.70.82.327.02.1-5.02.4-20.6-4.5-0.20.18.8
20070.1-0.1-0.0-0.00.1-0.0-0.10.0-0.2-0.0-0.10.0-0.2
2008-0.2-0.2-0.20.25.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.05.4
20090.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.10.00.0-0.1
20100.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.10.00.00.0-0.00.1
20110.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20120.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began10/3/2005
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age255 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades325
# Profitable229
% Profitable70.5%
Avg trade duration16.9 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown27.3%
drawdown periodAug 07, 2006 - March 18, 2008
Annual return (compounded)1.0%
Avg win$894
Avg loss$2,000

Ratios

W:L ratio1.07
Sharpe Ratio-0.13
Sortino Ratio-0.21
Calmar Ratio0.02

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life521.5%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-18.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)1.9%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)1.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity36.5%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$2,000
Avg Win$894
# Winners229
Sum Trade PL (losers)$192,019
Sum Trade PL (winners)$204,797
Num Months Winners17
# Losers96
% Winners70.5%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table252

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)1012.33
Avg Position Time (hrs)16.87
Avg Trade Length0.70
Last Trade Ago7278

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.01
Treynor Index-0.48

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.06
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.03
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades18.62
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.82
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats32.04
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats40.28
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.80
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.29
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.05

RATIO STATISTICS

a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.05
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Max Equity Drawdown (num days)589
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

Trading record

Placed 193 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
EUR/USD short500Oct 3, 2006Oct 3, 2006$900
GBP/USD short500Oct 3, 2006Oct 3, 2006($700)
EUR/USD long500Sep 28, 2006Oct 3, 2006$1,650
GBP/USD short500Oct 2, 2006Oct 2, 2006($8,400)
EUR/USD long500Sep 27, 2006Sep 27, 2006$1,200
USD/CHF long500Sep 25, 2006Sep 25, 2006$1,095
USD/JPY short500Sep 15, 2006Sep 24, 2006$26
GBP/USD short500Sep 22, 2006Sep 24, 2006$550
USD/CHF long500Sep 21, 2006Sep 21, 2006($5,111)
EUR/USD short500Sep 19, 2006Sep 21, 2006($3,250)
USD/CHF long500Sep 19, 2006Sep 21, 2006($4,929)
GBP/USD short500Sep 19, 2006Sep 21, 2006($7,300)
USD/CHF short500Sep 18, 2006Sep 19, 2006$730
USD/CHF long500Sep 14, 2006Sep 15, 2006$3,225
EUR/USD long500Sep 13, 2006Sep 15, 2006$50
USD/JPY long500Sep 11, 2006Sep 14, 2006$21
USD/CHF short500Sep 13, 2006Sep 14, 2006($1,217)
GBP/USD short500Sep 12, 2006Sep 14, 2006($8,200)
EUR/USD short500Sep 12, 2006Sep 13, 2006$700
GBP/USD long500Sep 4, 2006Sep 6, 2006($8,200)
EUR/USD short1000Sep 1, 2006Sep 4, 2006($1,900)
GBP/USD short500Sep 4, 2006Sep 4, 2006$300
EUR/USD long500Aug 30, 2006Sep 1, 2006($1,450)
GBP/USD short500Aug 31, 2006Aug 31, 2006$700
USD/CHF short500Aug 29, 2006Aug 31, 2006$365
USD/CHF long500Aug 29, 2006Aug 29, 2006($4,563)
EUR/USD short500Aug 28, 2006Aug 29, 2006($2,200)
GBP/USD short500Aug 29, 2006Aug 29, 2006$2,450
EUR/USD long500Aug 18, 2006Aug 27, 2006($3,650)
GBP/USD long500Aug 16, 2006Aug 16, 2006$3,550

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.