FOREX Formula
- hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
- 1.9%
- Max Drawdown
- 27.3%
- Trades
- 325
- Win Trades
- 70.5%
- Profit Factor
- 1.10
- Win Months
- 5.6%
About this strategy
A: Trades are generated using the same Tradestation strategy for each of the currencies traded. Trades can occur any time from Sunday afternoon when Forex trading begins, continuously until trading closes Friday afternoon. Trades can be both long or short. I typically close the trades manually since there is no profit target generated by the strategy. For protection, there is a trailing percent stop loss generated after a trade is made.
Q: What currencies are traded?
A: Trade alerts will be long/short for GBP/USD, EUR/USD, USD/CHF and USD/JPY.
Q: What is the time frame the trades are generated on?
A: Each currency is analyzed separately on 60 minute bars, 24 hours per day from the open on Sunday afternoon until the close on Friday afternoon. Trades typically last from a few hours to a few days. It all depends on how the price is trending. Historical trades show that trades will last on average a few hours. I personally like to get in and get out if the profit is there.
Q: What is a typical trade signal like?
A: Signals are stop based instead of market orders. If the entry price is not met, it may be altered by the system on the next 60 minute bar. When trades are exited, it may end up with a reversal signal (e.g. exit long and enter short). A downfall to this system is that stop orders are added, altered and cancelled by the strategy quite often before a trade is made. This may test your patience if you are following the signals manually!
Q: What would be the preferred method to use this system?
A: Due to 24 hour trading of the currency market and the use of stop orders for entries/exits, it is recommended that the signals be traded as closely to the time that the order becomes valid. The most accurate results will occur if the signals are auto-traded, if the Instant Trade Messenger is used or if the trade signals are sent to you by e-mail or to a mobile device. There are brokers who accept Collective2 signals for Forex auto-trading. I have the C2 signals routed to Interactive Brokers through Tradebullet and am pleased with the consistency of orders getting routed properly and timely.
Q: What are the trade sizes used?
A: Since subscribers are using their own money (as am I!), I want this service to start out with minimum drawdown, so we will start with trading 10 mini-lots of $10,000. As the account balance increases, so will the number of mini-lots we trade. We will maintain realistic trade sizes though. I could have easily used the entire theoretical $100,000 in this account, but who really has that much to start with? With each mini-lot traded we risk $1 per pip of the base currency, thus 10 mini-lots is $10 per pip. It is your option to use larger or smaller trade amounts. Just adjust typical trade results that are listed accordingly.
10/26 - Have upped trades to 20 mini-lots
2/27 - to 25 mini-lots
5/19 - to 50 mini lots
Q: How about those drawdowns in early November and December of 2005?
A: The 2 drawdown periods certainly were disappointing. It required a closer look at the strategy to better optimize it. A strategy change went into affect on Monday 12/19 and it has been performing fairly well since. Note that this change was not to just tweak the parameters in order to get a curve that worked for the past. I read a bit on Larry Williams and considered his theory on "trade day of the week".
Q: And the big loss in June, 2006?
A: After a large run up in the preceeding weeks I got cocky and added big to a losing position. It took 2 months to recapture the equity, so you could say I learned a very valuable lesson that wont be repeated. I will stick to the initial Stop Loss posted and will not add to a position.
Thanks for visiting!
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | 4.7 | -3.0 | -6.0 | -4.5 | |||||||||
| 2006 | 9.8 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 2.3 | 27.0 | 2.1 | -5.0 | 2.4 | -20.6 | -4.5 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 8.8 |
| 2007 | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.0 | -0.0 | 0.1 | -0.0 | -0.1 | 0.0 | -0.2 | -0.0 | -0.1 | 0.0 | -0.2 |
| 2008 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 5.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.4 |
| 2009 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.1 |
| 2010 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 | 0.1 |
| 2011 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2012 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2013 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2014 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2015 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2016 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2017 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2018 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2019 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 2020 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2021 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2022 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2023 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2024 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Statistics
Overview
| Strategy began | 10/3/2005 |
|---|---|
| Suggested Minimum Capital | $100,000 |
| Age | 255 months |
| What it trades | Forex |
| # Trades | 325 |
| # Profitable | 229 |
| % Profitable | 70.5% |
| Avg trade duration | 16.9 hours |
| Max peak-to-valley drawdown | 27.3% |
| drawdown period | Aug 07, 2006 - March 18, 2008 |
| Annual return (compounded) | 1.0% |
| Avg win | $894 |
| Avg loss | $2,000 |
Ratios
| W:L ratio | 1.07 |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.13 |
| Sortino Ratio | -0.21 |
| Calmar Ratio | 0.02 |
CORRELATION STATISTICS
| Correlation to SP500 | 0.01 |
|---|---|
| Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life | 521.5% |
| Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu) | -18.4% |
Return Statistics
| Ann Return (w trading costs) | 1.9% |
|---|---|
| Return Pcnt Since TOS Status | 0.0% |
| Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees) | 1.0% |
Slump
| Current Slump as Pcnt Equity | 36.5% |
|---|---|
| Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life | 1.0% |
Instruments
| Percent Trades Forex | 1.0% |
|---|---|
| Percent Trades Futures | 0.0% |
| Percent Trades Options | 0.0% |
| Percent Trades Stocks | 0.0% |
Automation
| Percentage Signals Automated | 0.0% |
|---|
Trading Style
| Any stock shorts? 0/1 | 0 |
|---|
Trades-Own-System Certification
| Trades Own System? | 0 |
|---|---|
| TOS percent | 0.0% |
Win / Loss
| Avg Loss | $2,000 |
|---|---|
| Avg Win | $894 |
| # Winners | 229 |
| Sum Trade PL (losers) | $192,019 |
| Sum Trade PL (winners) | $204,797 |
| Num Months Winners | 17 |
| # Losers | 96 |
| % Winners | 70.5% |
Dividends
| Dividends Received in Model Acct | 0 |
|---|
Age
| Num Months filled monthly returns table | 252 |
|---|
Frequency
| Avg Position Time (mins) | 1012.33 |
|---|---|
| Avg Position Time (hrs) | 16.87 |
| Avg Trade Length | 0.70 |
| Last Trade Ago | 7278 |
Regression
| Alpha | 0 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.01 |
| Treynor Index | -0.48 |
Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
| MAE:Equity, average, all trades | 0.01 |
|---|---|
| MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | 0.06 |
| MAE:Equity, average, losing trades | 0.03 |
| MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | — |
| MAE:Equity, average, winning trades | 0.01 |
| MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | — |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades | 18.62 |
| MAE:PL (avg, all trades) | 0.82 |
| MAE:PL (avg, losing trades) | — |
| MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats | 32.04 |
| MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats | 40.28 |
| MAE:PL (avg, winning trades) | — |
| MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy | — |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades | 0.80 |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades | -1.29 |
| Hold-and-Hope Ratio | 0.05 |
RATIO STATISTICS
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.05 |
|---|---|
| VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl) | 0.03 |
DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
| Max Equity Drawdown (num days) | 589 |
|---|---|
| Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative | 0.0% |
Trading record
Placed 193 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.
| Symbol | Side | Qty | Opened | Closed | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | short | 500 | Oct 3, 2006 | Oct 3, 2006 | $900 |
| GBP/USD | short | 500 | Oct 3, 2006 | Oct 3, 2006 | ($700) |
| EUR/USD | long | 500 | Sep 28, 2006 | Oct 3, 2006 | $1,650 |
| GBP/USD | short | 500 | Oct 2, 2006 | Oct 2, 2006 | ($8,400) |
| EUR/USD | long | 500 | Sep 27, 2006 | Sep 27, 2006 | $1,200 |
| USD/CHF | long | 500 | Sep 25, 2006 | Sep 25, 2006 | $1,095 |
| USD/JPY | short | 500 | Sep 15, 2006 | Sep 24, 2006 | $26 |
| GBP/USD | short | 500 | Sep 22, 2006 | Sep 24, 2006 | $550 |
| USD/CHF | long | 500 | Sep 21, 2006 | Sep 21, 2006 | ($5,111) |
| EUR/USD | short | 500 | Sep 19, 2006 | Sep 21, 2006 | ($3,250) |
| USD/CHF | long | 500 | Sep 19, 2006 | Sep 21, 2006 | ($4,929) |
| GBP/USD | short | 500 | Sep 19, 2006 | Sep 21, 2006 | ($7,300) |
| USD/CHF | short | 500 | Sep 18, 2006 | Sep 19, 2006 | $730 |
| USD/CHF | long | 500 | Sep 14, 2006 | Sep 15, 2006 | $3,225 |
| EUR/USD | long | 500 | Sep 13, 2006 | Sep 15, 2006 | $50 |
| USD/JPY | long | 500 | Sep 11, 2006 | Sep 14, 2006 | $21 |
| USD/CHF | short | 500 | Sep 13, 2006 | Sep 14, 2006 | ($1,217) |
| GBP/USD | short | 500 | Sep 12, 2006 | Sep 14, 2006 | ($8,200) |
| EUR/USD | short | 500 | Sep 12, 2006 | Sep 13, 2006 | $700 |
| GBP/USD | long | 500 | Sep 4, 2006 | Sep 6, 2006 | ($8,200) |
| EUR/USD | short | 1000 | Sep 1, 2006 | Sep 4, 2006 | ($1,900) |
| GBP/USD | short | 500 | Sep 4, 2006 | Sep 4, 2006 | $300 |
| EUR/USD | long | 500 | Aug 30, 2006 | Sep 1, 2006 | ($1,450) |
| GBP/USD | short | 500 | Aug 31, 2006 | Aug 31, 2006 | $700 |
| USD/CHF | short | 500 | Aug 29, 2006 | Aug 31, 2006 | $365 |
| USD/CHF | long | 500 | Aug 29, 2006 | Aug 29, 2006 | ($4,563) |
| EUR/USD | short | 500 | Aug 28, 2006 | Aug 29, 2006 | ($2,200) |
| GBP/USD | short | 500 | Aug 29, 2006 | Aug 29, 2006 | $2,450 |
| EUR/USD | long | 500 | Aug 18, 2006 | Aug 27, 2006 | ($3,650) |
| GBP/USD | long | 500 | Aug 16, 2006 | Aug 16, 2006 | $3,550 |
Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.