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Athena II - Futures

Futures · Started Nov 2005

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
534
Win Trades
62.0%
Profit Factor
1
Win Months
1.6%

About this strategy

Order Type - Market orders predominantly, limit orders rarely used.

Order Size - Round 10, 20, 40 lots, based on subscriber feedback - Tradebullet subscribers can use scaling factor percentage settings (use only 10% or 20%, of Athena IIs lot size).

Contracts - CBOT mini-size Dow and CME E-mini S&P 500 instruments (less frequently: CME E-mini Nasdaq-100 Futures). Known on Collective2 as @YMXX, @ESXX, and @NQXX.

This system does not release stops to subscribers. Positions are monitored fully by the system.

This system attempts to capture intra-day swings/legs - not precision in/out scalping, therefore average length trades held: 4 hours - overnight.

Athena II is cyclical in nature, meaning at times up to 10 traders per day are made. The opposite end of this spectrum is to have only two or three trades occur during a week (rare). I keep subscribers aware of any changes in trading frequencies.


If feedback overwhelmingly shows that overnight trades are less desirable by subscribers, Athena II will be split into two systems: a day trading system only (RTH only, no overnight positions) and the original system.

I trade this system on my personal accounts. Although it is a fully automated process, I do not wish to relinquish that much control to any automated process Therefore when trades are on, I am also actively involved in monitoring how and when trade signals are sent to Collective2.

Broadcasts are sent to keep subscribers aware of how open positions are being managed, based on the current system structure. Specifically for positions that are being held overnight. What is an example broadcast message? For example, at the end of the day, if it is anticipated that a closing order could occur overnight or no further orders will occur until the open.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
200510.421.233.9
200613.9-5.473.8-34.2-76.4-124.7-63.8-40.7-11.2-82.1-5062.20.0-157.4
20070.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20080.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20090.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20100.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.00.00.00.00.0
20110.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20120.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began11/7/2005
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age254 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades534
# Profitable331
% Profitable62.0%
Avg trade duration21.4 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodAug 18, 2006 - Nov 07, 2006
Annual Return (Compounded)0.0%
Avg win$3,498
Avg loss$5,671

Ratios

W:L ratio1.01
Sharpe Ratio-0.19
Sortino Ratio-0.33
Calmar Ratio0

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.12
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life523.5%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-703.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.3%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$5,671
Avg Win$3,498
# Winners331
Sum Trade PL (losers)$1,151,249
Sum Trade PL (winners)$1,157,928
Num Months Winners4
# Losers203
% Winners62.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table8

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)1283.77
Avg Position Time (hrs)21.40
Avg Trade Length0.90
Last Trade Ago7247

Regression

Alpha0
Beta3.88
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.13
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.25
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.06
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades150.43
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.74
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats35.92
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats79.10
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.05
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.32
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.01

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.07
SD0.40
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.18
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.18
df88
t0.48
p0.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.54
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.90
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.54
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.90
Sortino ratio0.33
Upside Potential Ratio1.11
Upside part of mean0.24
Downside part of mean-0.17
Upside SD0.34
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms83
N negative terms6
N of observations89
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.07
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.40
Covariance-0.00
r-0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.07
Mean Square Error0.16
DF error87
t(b)-0.03
p(b)0.51
t(a)0.47
p(a)0.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.37
Treynor index (mean / b)-14.12
Jensen alpha (a)0.07
Mean0
SD0.37
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df88
t0.00
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.72
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.72
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.72
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.72
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0.75
Upside part of mean0.20
Downside part of mean-0.20
Upside SD0.27
Downside SD0.26
N nonnegative terms83
N negative terms6
N of observations89
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.37
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.00
Mean Square Error0.14
DF error87
t(b)0.11
p(b)0.46
t(a)-0.02
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.28
Treynor index (mean / b)0.00
Jensen alpha (a)-0.00
VaR(95%)0.16
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.20
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0.31
SD0.79
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.39
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.39
df1954
t1.05
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.10
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.33
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.10
Sortino ratio0.62
Upside Potential Ratio2.99
Upside part of mean1.48
Downside part of mean-1.17
Upside SD0.62
Downside SD0.49
N nonnegative terms1833
N negative terms122
N of observations1955
Mean of predictor0.28
Mean of criterion0.31
SD of predictor0.53
SD of criterion0.79
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.31
Mean Square Error0.63
DF error1953
t(b)-0.30
p(b)0.50
t(a)1.06
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.88
Treynor index (mean / b)-29.87
Jensen alpha (a)0.31
Mean0
SD0.79
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df1954
t0
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.72
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.72
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.72
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.72
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio2.18
Upside part of mean1.33
Downside part of mean-1.33
Upside SD0.50
Downside SD0.61
N nonnegative terms1833
N negative terms122
N of observations1955
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.54
SD of criterion0.79
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.00
Mean Square Error0.63
DF error1953
t(b)-0.31
p(b)0.50
t(a)0.00
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.57
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.57
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.00
Jensen alpha (a)0.00
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.82
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.67
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.57
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.72
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations89
Minimum0.59
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.71
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.08
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low6
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.79
Number of outliers high8
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.22
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.29
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.21
Number of observations1955
Minimum0.48
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum2.06
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low122
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.93
Number of outliers high138
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.08
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.28
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.34
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.08
Quartile 10.22
Median0.37
Quartile 30.52
Maximum0.67
Mean of quarter 10.08
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.67
Inter Quartile Range0.30
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations10
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.04
Median0.05
Quartile 30.15
Maximum0.87
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.05
Mean of quarter 30.06
Mean of quarter 40.52
Inter Quartile Range0.11
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.69
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-11.45
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.43
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.43
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.96
VaR(95%) (regression method)1.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)1.12
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-382552128
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)81
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.8%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.00
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.00
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 60 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
YM Z6long30Nov 8, 2006Nov 9, 2006($12,540)
ES Z6long30Nov 8, 2006Nov 8, 2006$2,010
ES Z6short30Nov 8, 2006Nov 8, 2006($990)
ES Z6long30Nov 8, 2006Nov 8, 2006$8,010
ER2 Z6long20Nov 8, 2006Nov 8, 2006$7,840
ER2 Z6long20Nov 7, 2006Nov 8, 2006($3,160)
ES Z6long30Nov 7, 2006Nov 7, 2006($1,740)
ES Z6short30Nov 7, 2006Nov 7, 2006$2,385
ER2 Z6short30Nov 7, 2006Nov 7, 2006$1,860
ES Z6long30Nov 7, 2006Nov 7, 2006($990)
ES Z6short30Nov 7, 2006Nov 7, 2006($1,365)
ES Z6short30Nov 7, 2006Nov 7, 2006($615)
YM Z6long30Nov 7, 2006Nov 7, 2006($1,890)
ES Z6long30Nov 7, 2006Nov 7, 2006($3,240)
ES Z6short30Nov 7, 2006Nov 7, 2006($615)
ES Z6long30Nov 7, 2006Nov 7, 2006($1,740)
ER2 Z6long20Nov 7, 2006Nov 7, 2006($3,160)
YM Z6long30Nov 7, 2006Nov 7, 2006$1,410
ES Z6long30Nov 7, 2006Nov 7, 2006$1,635
ES Z6short30Nov 7, 2006Nov 7, 2006($2,490)
ES Z6long30Nov 7, 2006Nov 7, 2006($2,490)
ER2 Z6long20Nov 7, 2006Nov 7, 2006($2,560)
YM Z6long30Nov 7, 2006Nov 7, 2006$60
ES Z6long30Nov 7, 2006Nov 7, 2006($1,365)
ES Z6long30Nov 7, 2006Nov 7, 2006$885
ER2 Z6long30Nov 7, 2006Nov 7, 2006$3,960
ES Z6long30Nov 7, 2006Nov 7, 2006$885
ER2 Z6long30Nov 7, 2006Nov 7, 2006$5,160
ER2 Z6long20Nov 6, 2006Nov 7, 2006$3,840
ES Z6long30Nov 6, 2006Nov 6, 2006($2,115)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.