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Forex618 alt

Forex · Started Dec 2005

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
4.7%
Max Drawdown
46.1%
Trades
42
Win Trades
88.1%
Profit Factor
4.60
Win Months
1.6%

About this strategy

Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over- compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Traders use real money at their own risk. This system may be discontinued at any time without notice.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
200521.621.6
200633.6-8.823.141.7-0.0-0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0112.5
20070.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20080.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20090.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.00.00.0-0.0
20100.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20110.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20120.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began12/3/2005
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age253 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades42
# Profitable37
% Profitable88.1%
Avg trade duration4.3 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown46.1%
drawdown periodJan 25, 2006 - Feb 21, 2006
Annual Return (Compounded)4.7%
Avg win$5,577
Avg loss$8,891

Ratios

W:L ratio4.64
Sharpe Ratio0.21
Sortino Ratio0.38
Calmar Ratio0

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life504.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-346.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)4.7%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)4.7%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss6.7%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$8,891
Avg Win$5,577
# Winners37
Sum Trade PL (losers)$44,453
Sum Trade PL (winners)$206,338
Num Months Winners6
# Losers5
% Winners88.1%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table250

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)6199.07
Avg Position Time (hrs)103.32
Avg Trade Length4.30
Last Trade Ago7446

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta0.01
Treynor Index1.81

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.05
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.38
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.10
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.04
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades1.74
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.22
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats74.75
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats53.80
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.07
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.39
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.57

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.06
SD0.33
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.17
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.17
df87
t0.47
p0.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.90
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.55
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.90
Sortino ratio0.28
Upside Potential Ratio0.77
Upside part of mean0.16
Downside part of mean-0.10
Upside SD0.25
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms84
N negative terms4
N of observations88
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.06
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.33
Covariance0.01
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.11
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.04
Mean Square Error0.11
DF error86
t(b)0.69
p(b)0.25
t(a)0.30
p(a)0.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.29
Treynor index (mean / b)0.53
Jensen alpha (a)0.04
Mean0.00
SD0.35
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.00
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.00
df87
t0.00
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.72
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.72
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.72
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.72
Sortino ratio0.00
Upside Potential Ratio0.47
Upside part of mean0.13
Downside part of mean-0.13
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.28
N nonnegative terms84
N negative terms4
N of observations88
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion0.00
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.35
Covariance0.01
r0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.18
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0.12
DF error86
t(b)1.08
p(b)0.14
t(a)-0.20
p(a)0.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.24
Treynor index (mean / b)0.00
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.15
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.19
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
Mean0.14
SD0.52
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.27
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.27
df1939
t0.74
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.99
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.45
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.99
Sortino ratio0.43
Upside Potential Ratio1.49
Upside part of mean0.48
Downside part of mean-0.34
Upside SD0.40
Downside SD0.32
N nonnegative terms1893
N negative terms47
N of observations1940
Mean of predictor0.29
Mean of criterion0.14
SD of predictor0.55
SD of criterion0.52
Covariance0.03
r0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.10
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.11
Mean Square Error0.27
DF error1938
t(b)4.79
p(b)0.45
t(a)0.59
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.48
Treynor index (mean / b)1.37
Jensen alpha (a)0.11
Mean0.00
SD0.56
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.00
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.00
df1939
t0.00
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.72
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.72
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.72
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.72
Sortino ratio0.00
Upside Potential Ratio0.92
Upside part of mean0.43
Downside part of mean-0.43
Upside SD0.31
Downside SD0.47
N nonnegative terms1893
N negative terms47
N of observations1940
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0.00
SD of predictor0.55
SD of criterion0.56
Covariance0.03
r0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.12
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.02
Mean Square Error0.31
DF error1938
t(b)5.03
p(b)0.44
t(a)-0.08
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.38
Treynor index (mean / b)0.00
Jensen alpha (a)-0.02
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.86
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.66
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.62
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.72
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations88
Minimum0.49
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.53
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.05
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low4
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.82
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.19
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-260.50
VaR(95%) (moments method)-3.40282346638529e+38
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.73
VaR(95%) (regression method)-0.28
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations1940
Minimum0.39
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.97
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low47
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high78
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.61
VaR(95%) (moments method)-0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.55
VaR(95%) (regression method)-0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.13
Median0.25
Quartile 30.38
Maximum0.51
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.51
Inter Quartile Range0.25
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations10
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.00
Maximum0.63
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.00
Mean of quarter 40.21
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.32
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-385060384
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)27
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.00
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.00
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.00
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.00
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.00
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.00
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.00
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.00
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.00
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.00
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 20 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
EUR/USD long1000Apr 21, 2006Apr 24, 2006$6,300
GBP/USD long1000Apr 21, 2006Apr 24, 2006$7,700
EUR/USD long1000Apr 7, 2006Apr 19, 2006$15,000
GBP/USD long1000Apr 5, 2006Apr 18, 2006$18,400
EUR/USD long1000Mar 23, 2006Apr 4, 2006$17,400
GBP/USD long1000Mar 21, 2006Apr 4, 2006$6,100
USD/JPY short1000Mar 6, 2006Mar 17, 2006$98
EUR/USD long1000Feb 20, 2006Mar 17, 2006$21,900
USD/JPY short2000Jan 26, 2006Feb 28, 2006$123
EUR/USD long1500Jan 26, 2006Feb 17, 2006($42,700)
GBP/USD long500Jan 27, 2006Jan 31, 2006$7,250
GBP/USD long500Jan 27, 2006Jan 27, 2006$2,950
EUR/USD long500Jan 25, 2006Jan 26, 2006($300)
GBP/USD short500Jan 24, 2006Jan 24, 2006$2,950
EUR/USD long10Jan 24, 2006Jan 24, 2006($3)
EUR/USD long500Jan 18, 2006Jan 22, 2006$6,550
GBP/USD long1000Jan 18, 2006Jan 22, 2006$6,000
EUR/USD long1000Jan 17, 2006Jan 17, 2006$1,450
GBP/USD long1500Jan 16, 2006Jan 17, 2006$3,000
USD/JPY short500Jan 17, 2006Jan 17, 2006$4
EUR/USD long500Jan 12, 2006Jan 12, 2006$550
GBP/USD long500Jan 11, 2006Jan 12, 2006$6,350
EUR/USD long500Jan 11, 2006Jan 12, 2006$3,800
EUR/USD long500Jan 9, 2006Jan 10, 2006$150
USD/JPY long500Jan 8, 2006Jan 9, 2006$7
GBP/USD long500Dec 22, 2005Jan 4, 2006$9,200
EUR/USD long500Dec 22, 2005Dec 23, 2005$1,950
EUR/USD long500Dec 20, 2005Dec 20, 2005$150
EUR/USD long500Dec 13, 2005Dec 13, 2005$2,650
USD/JPY short500Dec 13, 2005Dec 13, 2005$13

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.