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Russell 2000 seasonality

Futures · Started May 2006

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
6.0%
Max Drawdown
48.1%
Trades
32
Win Trades
59.4%
Profit Factor
1.20
Win Months
8.2%

About this strategy



New Money Management Rules applied from March 2008
====================================

Fixed risk of 30% for every trade. Stop loss order used, governed by current volatilty. Leverage is then applied to normalise risk at 30%.

This money management was used in the original turtle experiment and was said by Curtis Faith to be a large contributor to their success. Further details and examples are given in my forum post on the topic. Please read.

The main benefit is that risk is taken care of whatever the market conditions, and our stop losses are appropriate to the current volatility. Upside is left to play out until the end of the trade, usually 7 days after entry.

System Description
=============

It is well known that the markets tend to rise around the end of each month and the beginning of the next month. Various theories try to explain this with the most cogent being that money flows into the markets around this time, causing prices to rise. This system uses this phenomenum and only employs capital during the most favourable time-span. Mid month, when historically prices have remained flat is the time when we dont participate in the market.

There are 2 options for subscribing to this system. There is this system which charges $50 per month, but for people who wish to only pay for performance I have the same system under the name er2 pay per +ve trade. Although signals are identical to this system, you will be charged $65 but only for successful signals.

Real world trading of this system is very easy. Just 2 actions required each month, and very little impact from slippage or commissions.

The system is biased on the long side with around 90% of trades going long, with the other trades going short.

Each trade on its own has a 77+% chance of making profit, so in a typical year 9 out of the 12 trades should be profitable.

100% annual success rate - every year of the past 20 has returned profits using this system. The worst yearly performance was up a mere 41%, whilst the best was up 170%.

We use the Russell 2000 index as it is broad based and has no big weightings from individual stocks like the Dow and Nasdaq indices. Having compared the systems performance using the S&P500, NDX100 and also other international indices such as the FTSE100, Nikkei and DAX, the Russell came out on top in terms of overall performance and, more importantantly in my view, stability, with very few large losses.

Yearly back-tested results going back to 1987 show an average yearly gain of 92.5%, which isnt bad given a market exposure of only 86 days a year!

My system will generate its signal towards the end of each month. Subscribers will be emailed a day or so prior to the signal date with a heads up suggesting what the signal will be and what amount of leverage the system will use. The signal is intended to be executed as near as possible to the market close on that day. Around 7 trading days later a signal will be sent instructing you to get back to cash.

This system is not a paper only system. I trade this myself with my own money, and that of some friends and colleagues. I have faith that this system will continue to produce good results.












Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20063.024.1-2.87.6-9.62.83.311.242.7
2007-8.9-0.3-36.04.311.80.21.70.51.07.4-6.57.8-24.0
2008-5.3-13.6-13.413.438.3-18.914.832.1-34.136.38.6-10.119.9
20090.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.00.00.0-0.0
20100.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20110.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20120.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began5/19/2006
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age248 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades32
# Profitable19
% Profitable59.4%
Avg trade duration8.9 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown48.1%
drawdown periodDec 27, 2006 - March 28, 2008
Annual return (compounded)1.5%
Avg win$11,520
Avg loss$14,119

Ratios

W:L ratio1.19
Sharpe Ratio0.03
Sortino Ratio0.05
Calmar Ratio-0.00

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.12
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life502.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)0.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)6.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)1.5%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity17.6%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss68.8%
Chance of 20% account loss58.8%
Chance of 30% account loss44.4%
Chance of 40% account loss26.3%
Chance of 50% account loss21.1%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$14,118
Avg Win$11,520
# Winners19
Sum Trade PL (losers)$183,540
Sum Trade PL (winners)$218,880
Num Months Winners21
# Losers13
% Winners59.4%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table245

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)12814.67
Avg Position Time (hrs)213.58
Avg Trade Length8.90
Last Trade Ago6496

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.11
Treynor Index0.02

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.10
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.35
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.18
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.05
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades8.83
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-1.92
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats83.13
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats18.32
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.43
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.19
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.11

RATIO STATISTICS

a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.29
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.07

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Max Equity Drawdown (num days)457
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

Trading record

Placed 21 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
TFS Z8long7Nov 25, 2008Dec 4, 2008$5,334
TFS Z8long6Oct 29, 2008Nov 6, 2008$27,232
TFS Z8long9Sep 25, 2008Sep 29, 2008($43,362)
ER2 U8long13Aug 26, 2008Sep 5, 2008$16,126
ER2 U8long9Jul 28, 2008Aug 6, 2008$27,558
ER2 U8long16Jun 25, 2008Jun 30, 2008($39,008)
ER2 M8long13May 27, 2008Jun 5, 2008$35,646
ER2 M8long10Apr 25, 2008May 6, 2008$8,020
ER2 M8long6Mar 25, 2008Apr 3, 2008$5,112
ER2 H8long6Mar 25, 2008Mar 25, 2008($48)
ER2 M8long3Feb 26, 2008Feb 29, 2008($10,134)
ER2 H8long2Jan 28, 2008Feb 6, 2008($1,876)
ER2 H8long4Dec 19, 2007Jan 3, 2008($4,832)
ER2 Z7long3Nov 27, 2007Dec 6, 2007$12,336
ER2 Z7long5Oct 28, 2007Nov 1, 2007($12,490)
ER2 Z7long3Sep 25, 2007Oct 4, 2007$7,126
ER2 U7long1Aug 28, 2007Aug 31, 2007$2,582
ER2 U7long2Jul 26, 2007Aug 1, 2007($5,576)
ER2 U7long3Jun 26, 2007Jul 6, 2007$7,686
ER2 M7long5May 25, 2007Jun 6, 2007$6,690
ER2 M7long5Apr 25, 2007May 4, 2007($540)
ER2 M7long5Mar 27, 2007Apr 5, 2007$5,460
ER2 H7long8Feb 26, 2007Mar 5, 2007($48,864)
ER2 H7long2Jan 26, 2007Feb 6, 2007$4,184
ER2 H7long11Dec 19, 2006Jan 8, 2007($7,158)
ER2 Z6long10Nov 27, 2006Dec 6, 2006$18,200
ER2 Z6long8Oct 26, 2006Nov 6, 2006($10,224)
ER2 Z6long6Sep 27, 2006Oct 9, 2006$4,272
ER2 U6long6Aug 28, 2006Sep 7, 2006($108)
ER2 U6long1Jul 26, 2006Aug 4, 2006$652

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.