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FX-IGI--TRADING SIGNAL

Forex · Started May 2006

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-2.3%
Max Drawdown
42.9%
Trades
228
Win Trades
76.3%
Profit Factor
0.50
Win Months
42.0%

About this strategy

FX IGI SIGNAL is developed as a tool to identify forex trading signals and short term currency trends directions.
Bullish and bearish signals, in 15 min ,30 min ,60 min time frames.

Trade signals between 7am- 5pm GMT (London time)..
Rapid fire trading system..
Trading system captures short term moves in the market..
Signals based on intraday charts and technical analysis
Provide stop losses..



Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20060.4-0.0-0.0-0.01.6-2.8-29.7-8.1-36.1
2007-3.6-0.4-0.3-0.40.2-0.1-0.20.1-0.9-0.3-0.20.1-5.8
2008-0.2-0.3-0.70.1-0.8-0.40.41.60.92.4-0.0-2.10.8
20091.70.4-1.00.0-1.50.2-0.4-0.1-0.5-0.2-0.51.1-0.7
20100.80.60.00.31.60.1-1.30.7-1.5-0.61.5-0.41.8
2011-0.6-0.2-0.5-0.70.5-0.00.0-0.31.5-0.60.80.50.4
2012-0.2-0.1-0.10.21.4-0.50.6-0.5-0.5-0.1-0.1-0.4-0.3
2013-0.70.90.4-0.40.1-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.50.4-0.4-0.9
20140.5-0.50.0-0.00.3-0.10.40.50.80.20.20.52.8
20151.30.10.7-0.70.4-0.20.2-0.40.10.30.6-0.61.7
20160.2-0.1-0.80.10.30.0-0.0-0.0-0.10.40.60.20.8
2017-0.40.3-0.4-0.2-0.4-0.4-0.5-0.40.20.3-0.3-0.2-2.3
2018-0.80.2-0.00.60.7-0.20.0-0.10.20.30.2-0.20.8
20190.00.10.30.00.0-0.30.20.40.1-0.40.2-0.30.4
20200.20.0-0.10.3-0.3-0.2-0.9-0.20.4-0.0-0.5-0.4-1.7
20210.20.10.5-0.4-0.30.40.10.10.30.10.40.11.6
20220.1-0.20.40.40.10.50.30.40.3-0.2-0.7-0.41.0
2023-0.40.5-0.5-0.30.5-0.3-0.20.40.30.0-0.5-0.2-0.7
20240.30.00.10.2-0.20.2-0.3-0.3-0.20.50.40.21.0
20250.1-0.0-0.7-0.80.0-0.60.2-0.10.00.00.00.0-1.9
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began5/25/2006
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age247 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades228
# Profitable174
% Profitable76.3%
Avg trade duration29.9 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown42.9%
drawdown periodOct 26, 2006 - July 15, 2008
Annual Return (Compounded)-2.3%
Avg win$170
Avg loss$1,060

Ratios

W:L ratio0.52
Sharpe Ratio-0.49
Sortino Ratio-0.57
Calmar Ratio-0.02

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.04
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life500.0%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-538.5%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-2.3%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-1.6%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity62.9%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.2%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,060
Avg Win$170
# Winners174
Sum Trade PL (losers)$57,238
Sum Trade PL (winners)$29,506
Num Months Winners116
# Losers54
% Winners76.3%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table245

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)43042.03
Avg Position Time (hrs)717.37
Avg Trade Length29.90
Last Trade Ago387

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta-0.02
Treynor Index0.67

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.03
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-4.10
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)2.91
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats26.71
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats72.61
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades3.12
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.50
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.23

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.01
SD0.16
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.04
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.04
df82
t0.10
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.71
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.78
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.71
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.78
Sortino ratio0.07
Upside Potential Ratio0.95
Upside part of mean0.09
Downside part of mean-0.08
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms44
N negative terms39
N of observations83
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.01
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.16
Covariance-0.01
r-0.24
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.17
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.04
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error81
t(b)-2.22
p(b)0.99
t(a)0.60
p(a)0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.16
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.04
Jensen alpha (a)0.04
Mean-0.01
SD0.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.04
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.03
df82
t-0.09
p0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.78
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.71
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.78
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.71
Sortino ratio-0.05
Upside Potential Ratio0.80
Upside part of mean0.08
Downside part of mean-0.09
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms44
N negative terms39
N of observations83
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.15
Covariance-0.01
r-0.23
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.16
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.02
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error81
t(b)-2.17
p(b)0.98
t(a)0.33
p(a)0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.13
Treynor index (mean / b)0.03
Jensen alpha (a)0.02
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.09
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean0.06
SD0.39
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.17
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.17
df1823
t0.44
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.58
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.91
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.58
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.91
Sortino ratio0.29
Upside Potential Ratio2.42
Upside part of mean0.54
Downside part of mean-0.47
Upside SD0.32
Downside SD0.22
N nonnegative terms965
N negative terms859
N of observations1824
Mean of predictor0.40
Mean of criterion0.06
SD of predictor0.61
SD of criterion0.39
Covariance-0.05
r-0.23
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.15
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.12
Mean Square Error0.15
DF error1822
t(b)-9.94
p(b)0.61
t(a)0.85
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.41
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.44
Jensen alpha (a)0.12
Mean-0.01
SD0.37
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.02
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.02
df1823
t-0.05
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.76
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.72
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.76
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.72
Sortino ratio-0.03
Upside Potential Ratio1.95
Upside part of mean0.49
Downside part of mean-0.50
Upside SD0.27
Downside SD0.25
N nonnegative terms965
N negative terms859
N of observations1824
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.60
SD of criterion0.37
Covariance-0.05
r-0.23
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.15
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.02
Mean Square Error0.13
DF error1822
t(b)-10.28
p(b)0.62
t(a)0.18
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.30
Treynor index (mean / b)0.05
Jensen alpha (a)0.02
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.01
SD0.04
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.12
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.12
df130
t0.08
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.65
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.89
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.65
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.89
Sortino ratio0.15
Upside Potential Ratio6.15
Upside part of mean0.21
Downside part of mean-0.21
Upside SD0.03
Downside SD0.03
N nonnegative terms66
N negative terms65
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.77
Mean of criterion0.01
SD of predictor0.65
SD of criterion0.04
Covariance-0.01
r-0.36
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.05
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)-4.38
p(b)0.72
t(a)0.82
p(a)0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.17
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.22
Jensen alpha (a)0.05
Mean0.00
SD0.04
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.10
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.10
df130
t0.07
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.68
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.87
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.68
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.87
Sortino ratio0.12
Upside Potential Ratio6.11
Upside part of mean0.21
Downside part of mean-0.21
Upside SD0.03
Downside SD0.03
N nonnegative terms66
N negative terms65
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.55
Mean of criterion0.00
SD of predictor0.65
SD of criterion0.04
Covariance-0.01
r-0.36
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.04
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)-4.40
p(b)0.73
t(a)0.72
p(a)0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.04
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.16
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.17
Jensen alpha (a)0.04
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations83
Minimum0.82
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.33
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.83
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.01
Mean of outliers high1.33
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.90
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.21
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.60
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations1824
Minimum0.70
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.43
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low105
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high112
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.00
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.98
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.14
Number of observations131
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.01
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.53
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.61
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.34
Quartile 10.34
Median0.34
Quartile 30.34
Maximum0.34
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations7
Minimum0.07
Quartile 10.12
Median0.28
Quartile 30.29
Maximum0.35
Mean of quarter 10.07
Mean of quarter 20.22
Mean of quarter 30.28
Mean of quarter 40.33
Inter Quartile Range0.17
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations10
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.02
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.00
Mean of quarter 40.02
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-174.39
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-3.23
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-368621600
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)628
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.01
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.01
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.02
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.06
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.01
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.01
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.02
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.02
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.14
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.00
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.00
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.18
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.25
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.77

Trading record

Placed 104 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
EUR/USD short10Feb 12, 2007Aug 21, 2025$1,336
USD/CHF long20Feb 12, 2007Feb 12, 2007$1
EUR/USD short10Feb 12, 2007Feb 12, 2007$2
EUR/USD short10Feb 12, 2007Feb 12, 2007$1
USD/CHF long10Feb 7, 2007Feb 7, 2007$0
EUR/USD short10Feb 7, 2007Feb 7, 2007$3
EUR/USD long10Feb 6, 2007Feb 6, 2007$1
USD/CHF short10Feb 6, 2007Feb 6, 2007$1
USD/CHF long10Feb 6, 2007Feb 6, 2007($18)
EUR/USD short10Feb 6, 2007Feb 6, 2007$1
EUR/USD short10Feb 1, 2007Feb 1, 2007$1
USD/CHF long10Feb 1, 2007Feb 1, 2007$5
USD/CHF long10Feb 1, 2007Feb 1, 2007$2
EUR/USD short10Feb 1, 2007Feb 1, 2007$1
USD/CHF short10Feb 1, 2007Feb 1, 2007($15)
EUR/USD long10Feb 1, 2007Feb 1, 2007$1
USD/CHF short10Feb 1, 2007Feb 1, 2007$2
EUR/USD long10Feb 1, 2007Feb 1, 2007$2
USD/CHF long10Feb 1, 2007Feb 1, 2007$5
EUR/USD short10Feb 1, 2007Feb 1, 2007$3
USD/CHF long10Feb 1, 2007Feb 1, 2007$1
EUR/USD short10Feb 1, 2007Feb 1, 2007$2
EUR/USD long10Jan 31, 2007Jan 31, 2007$1
USD/CHF short10Jan 31, 2007Jan 31, 2007$2
USD/CHF short10Jan 26, 2007Jan 26, 2007$1
EUR/USD short10Jan 26, 2007Jan 26, 2007$2
USD/CHF short10Jan 26, 2007Jan 26, 2007$0
EUR/USD long10Jan 26, 2007Jan 26, 2007$2
USD/CHF short10Jan 26, 2007Jan 26, 2007$1
USD/CHF short10Jan 26, 2007Jan 26, 2007($12)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.