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mwz

Stocks · Started Jan 2007

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-1.3%
Max Drawdown
86.9%
Trades
1622
Win Trades
41.5%
Profit Factor
1
Win Months
8.0%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2007-0.03.26.04.919.824.63.214.92.9-9.58.1-14.574.7
200813.4-8.931.0-24.72.7-15.6-0.1-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-11.9
2009-0.0-6.7214.3-45.9-56.0-7.5-12.5-0.10.00.20.00.0-43.4
20100.00.00.00.0-0.00.00.0-0.20.0-0.00.01.10.8
20110.0-0.00.00.0-0.0-0.0-0.00.00.0-0.10.00.0-0.0
20120.0-0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.00.00.00.0
20130.00.00.00.20.0-0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.2
2014-0.00.00.0-0.00.00.10.00.00.00.0-0.10.0-0.1
20150.00.00.00.0-0.10.0-5.80.03.5-17.70.0-0.0-19.9
20160.00.09.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.09.5
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/16/2007
Suggested Minimum Capital$42,469
Age239 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades1622
# Profitable673
% Profitable41.5%
Avg trade duration6.8 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown86.9%
drawdown periodMarch 30, 2009 - May 07, 2009
Annual Return (Compounded)-1.3%
Avg win$1,224
Avg loss$830

Ratios

W:L ratio1.05
Sharpe Ratio0.10
Sortino Ratio0.20
Calmar Ratio0.06

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.00
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life433.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-457.7%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-1.3%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)3.2%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity504.9%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$830
Avg Win$1,224
# Winners673
Sum Trade PL (losers)$787,400
Sum Trade PL (winners)$823,789
Num Months Winners29
# Losers949
% Winners41.5%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct81

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table237

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)407.03
Avg Position Time (hrs)6.78
Avg Trade Length0.30
Last Trade Ago6275

Regression

Alpha0.02
Beta0
Treynor Index-4.06

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-763.90
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.28
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats33.52
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats46.58
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.24
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.11
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.00

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.12
SD0.43
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.27
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.27
df87
t0.73
p0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.99
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.46
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.99
Sortino ratio0.58
Upside Potential Ratio1.55
Upside part of mean0.31
Downside part of mean-0.19
Upside SD0.38
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms63
N negative terms25
N of observations88
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.12
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.43
Covariance-0.00
r-0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.12
Mean Square Error0.19
DF error86
t(b)-0.01
p(b)0.51
t(a)0.71
p(a)0.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.44
Treynor index (mean / b)-42.34
Jensen alpha (a)0.12
Mean0.04
SD0.37
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.11
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.11
df87
t0.30
p0.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.84
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.61
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.84
Sortino ratio0.18
Upside Potential Ratio1.10
Upside part of mean0.26
Downside part of mean-0.22
Upside SD0.29
Downside SD0.24
N nonnegative terms63
N negative terms25
N of observations88
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0.04
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.37
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.04
Mean Square Error0.14
DF error86
t(b)0.13
p(b)0.45
t(a)0.28
p(a)0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.32
Treynor index (mean / b)2.01
Jensen alpha (a)0.04
VaR(95%)0.16
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.20
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean0.59
SD1.10
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.53
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.53
df1930
t1.45
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.26
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.19
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.26
Sortino ratio0.99
Upside Potential Ratio3.58
Upside part of mean2.14
Downside part of mean-1.55
Upside SD0.92
Downside SD0.60
N nonnegative terms1659
N negative terms272
N of observations1931
Mean of predictor0.32
Mean of criterion0.59
SD of predictor0.63
SD of criterion1.10
Covariance0.04
r0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.10
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.55
Mean Square Error1.21
DF error1929
t(b)2.64
p(b)0.46
t(a)1.37
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.35
Treynor index (mean / b)5.61
Jensen alpha (a)0.55
Mean0.04
SD1.05
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.04
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.04
df1930
t0.11
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.68
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.76
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.68
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.76
Sortino ratio0.05
Upside Potential Ratio2.40
Upside part of mean1.84
Downside part of mean-1.79
Upside SD0.71
Downside SD0.77
N nonnegative terms1659
N negative terms272
N of observations1931
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion0.04
SD of predictor0.62
SD of criterion1.05
Covariance0.04
r0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.03
Mean Square Error1.09
DF error1929
t(b)2.44
p(b)0.46
t(a)0.08
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.72
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.78
Treynor index (mean / b)0.44
Jensen alpha (a)0.03
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.95
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.56
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.79
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.58
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations88
Minimum0.62
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.94
Mean of quarter 10.94
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.10
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low19
Percentage of outliers low0.22
Mean of outliers low0.93
Number of outliers high19
Percentage of outliers high0.22
Mean of outliers high1.12
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-7.62
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.04
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.19
Number of observations1931
Minimum0.38
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum2.15
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low272
Percentage of outliers low0.14
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high293
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high1.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.36
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations5
Minimum0.05
Quartile 10.08
Median0.18
Quartile 30.27
Maximum0.57
Mean of quarter 10.06
Mean of quarter 20.18
Mean of quarter 30.27
Mean of quarter 40.57
Inter Quartile Range0.20
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.57
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations10
Minimum0.12
Quartile 10.23
Median0.32
Quartile 30.42
Maximum0.67
Mean of quarter 10.18
Mean of quarter 20.26
Mean of quarter 30.39
Mean of quarter 40.57
Inter Quartile Range0.19
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-44.96
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.60
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-2.78
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.84
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.84
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-389690080
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)38
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.05
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.04
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.08
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.08
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.22
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.05
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.04
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.06
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.08
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.34
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 80 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
AEM long2800Jun 25, 2009Jul 8, 2009($10,527)
AEM long1000Jun 24, 2009Jun 24, 2009$1,615
BA short1000Jun 11, 2009Jun 11, 2009$365
FAZ long22May 8, 2009May 22, 2009$8,768
FAZ long44May 4, 2009May 8, 2009($44,881)
FAZ long66Apr 29, 2009May 4, 2009($24,473)
APWR long4000Apr 30, 2009May 1, 2009$815
ERY long102Apr 30, 2009May 1, 2009($3,519)
APWR long500Apr 30, 2009Apr 30, 2009$25
APWR long10000Apr 30, 2009Apr 30, 2009($973)
GSI long1000Apr 30, 2009Apr 30, 2009($373)
FAS long13080Apr 29, 2009Apr 30, 2009$3,182
TBT long750Apr 29, 2009Apr 30, 2009$1,555
FAZ long13Apr 29, 2009Apr 29, 2009($1,952)
FAZ long28Apr 24, 2009Apr 24, 2009($4,801)
MS short5000Apr 23, 2009Apr 24, 2009($1,105)
FAZ long22Apr 23, 2009Apr 24, 2009($12,064)
FAZ long13Apr 23, 2009Apr 23, 2009($1,040)
MS short7000Apr 23, 2009Apr 23, 2009($1,615)
MS short5000Apr 23, 2009Apr 23, 2009($555)
AEM long2000Apr 23, 2009Apr 23, 2009($738)
MS short6000Apr 23, 2009Apr 23, 2009$1,283
WFC short5000Apr 23, 2009Apr 23, 2009$1,245
FAZ long32Apr 22, 2009Apr 22, 2009$9,711
WFC long10500Apr 22, 2009Apr 22, 2009($1,058)
FAZ long30Apr 22, 2009Apr 22, 2009($4,009)
RIMM long4000Apr 22, 2009Apr 22, 2009$210
FAZ long26Apr 22, 2009Apr 22, 2009($5,409)
WFC short7000Apr 22, 2009Apr 22, 2009$1,575
TOL short6000Apr 22, 2009Apr 22, 2009$1,321

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.