Short-Term Trader
- hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
- 2.6%
- Max Drawdown
- 35.4%
- Trades
- 2456
- Win Trades
- 49.9%
- Profit Factor
- 1.10
- Win Months
- 12.0%
About this strategy
I am registered with the CFTC as a publishing CTA. All performance numbers that follow are hypothetical. The following CFTC disclaimer concerning hypothetical performance should be read and understood:
"HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALOS, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECTUED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER- OR OVER-COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN."
This strategy was developed on a basket of 90 world-wide commodities including almost all tradeable US commodities, and a number of overseas commodities, bonds, and stock indices. In C2, 50 commodities will be traded. The only overseas markets traded are the Bund, Bobl, Long Gilt, DAX, FTSE, and CAC40.
Across these markets, the strategy has had the following stats since 1980:
Wins: 21,272
Losses: 12,238
Total Profit: $5,012,644
Profit-Per-Trade: $149
Average Annual Return: $210,492
Average Annual Max Draw-Down: $30,571
Max Draw-Down: $63,121
Most of the basket did not trade in the 80s. The following is performance since 2000:
Year Profit Max DD
2000 $388,854 $22,862
2001 $299,491 $55,879
2002 $304,885 $23,782
2003 $220,539 $63,121
2004 $294,859 $22,366
2005 $160,132 $36,858
2006 $458,152 $29,612
1 May $132,810 $38,476
2007
Smaller accounts can be traded with this strategy. The following portfolios should be considered with risk versus reward in mind.
Portfolio 1:
Grains: Soybeans
Meats: Lean Hogs
Softs: Cotton
Metals: Gold
Energies: Crude Oil
Currencies: Dollar Index
Financials: 10-Year Notes
Stock Indices: None
Trading Plan: Trade 1 contract for each signal.
Past Performance: Average Annual Return: $31,299
Average Annual Max DD: $7,903
Max DD: $12,015
Portfolio 2:
Grains: Soybeans, Corn
Meats: Lean Hogs, Feeder Cattle
Softs: Cotton, Sugar
Metals: Gold, Copper
Energies: Crude Oil, Natural Gas (mini)
Currencies: Dollar Index, Swiss Franc
Financials: 10-Year Notes, Long Gilt
Stock Indices: None
Trading Plan: Take one trade in each group at a time. If you are in a grain, and another grain in the portfolio is signalled, bypass the second grain. Trade 1 contract for each signal.
Past Performance: Average Annual Return: $40,147
Average Annual Max DD: $9,310
Max DD: $12,254
Portfolio 3:
Grains: Soybeans, Corn
Meats: Lean Hogs, Feeder Cattle
Softs: Cotton, Sugar
Metals: Gold, Copper
Energies: Crude Oil, Natural Gas (mini)
Currencies: Dollar Index, Swiss Franc
Financials: 10-Year Notes, Long Gilt
Stock Indices: None
Trading Plan: Can take two trades in each group at a time. Trade 1 contract for each signal.
Past Performance: Average Annual Return: $55,717
Average Annual Max DD: $10,932
Max DD: $18,387
Portfolio 4:
Grains: Soybeans, Corn, KC Wheat
Meats: Lean Hogs, Feeder Cattle, Live Cattle
Softs: Cotton, Sugar, Coffee
Metals: Gold, Copper, Silver
Energies: Crude Oil, Natural Gas (mini), Reformulated Gas
Currencies: Dollar Index, Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen
Financials: 10-Year Notes, Long Gilt, 5-Year Note
Stock Indices: None
Trading Plan: Take a maximum of two positions in each group at a time. If you are in two grain trades, and a third is signalled, bypass that trade. Trade 1 contract for each signal.
Past Performance: Average Annual Return: $75,177
Average Annual Max DD: $15,249
Max DD: $22,513
Portfolio 5:
Grains: Soybeans, Corn, KC Wheat
Meats: Lean Hogs, Feeder Cattle, Live Cattle
Softs: Cotton, Sugar, Coffee
Metals: Gold, Copper, Silver
Energies: Crude Oil, Natural Gas (mini), Reformulated Gas
Currencies: Dollar Index, Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen
Financials: 10-Year Notes, Long Gilt, 5-Year Note
Stock Indices: Nikkei
Trading Plan: Take a maximum of three positions in each group at a time. If you are in three grain trades, and a fourth is signalled, bypass that trade.Trade 1 contract for each signal.
Past Performance: Average Annual Return: $91,287
Average Annual Max DD: $17,592
Max DD: $25,982
Portfolio 6:
All 50 commodities.
Trading Plan: Trade a maximum of 4 in a group at a time. If you are in 4 grain trades, and a 5th is signalled, bypass that trade. Trade 1 contract for each signal.
Past Performance: Average Annual Return: $174,404
Average Annual Max DD: $26,009
Max DD: $48,112
Portfolio 7:
All 50 commodities.
Trading Plan: Trade 1 contract for each signal.
Past Performance: Average Annual Return: $210,492
Average Annual Max DD: $30,571
Max DD: $63,121
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 7.9 | 23.9 | -0.1 | -13.8 | 6.7 | 6.8 | -9.1 | -7.5 | 16.6 | 28.6 | |||
| 2008 | 17.1 | 0.3 | 32.4 | -7.7 | 16.7 | -1.8 | -7.4 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 7.7 | 0.3 | -7.8 | 65.0 |
| 2009 | 3.5 | -6.7 | -4.1 | 5.9 | 11.2 | -6.2 | -4.7 | -0.2 | -21.2 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -23.4 |
| 2010 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2011 | -0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 |
| 2012 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2013 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2014 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | 0.1 | -0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | -0.0 | 1.0 |
| 2015 | 0.8 | -0.4 | 0.2 | -0.0 | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 |
| 2016 | 0.1 | 0.2 | -0.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.0 | -0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 |
| 2017 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2018 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2019 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2020 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2021 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2022 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2023 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2024 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Statistics
Overview
| Strategy began | 4/22/2007 |
|---|---|
| Suggested Minimum Capital | $100,000 |
| Age | 236 months |
| What it trades | Futures |
| # Trades | 2456 |
| # Profitable | 1225 |
| % Profitable | 49.9% |
| Avg trade duration | 2.4 days |
| Max peak-to-valley drawdown | 35.4% |
| drawdown period | June 11, 2009 - Sept 18, 2009 |
| Annual Return (Compounded) | 2.6% |
| Avg win | $1,046 |
| Avg loss | $946 |
Ratios
| W:L ratio | 1.10 |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.09 |
| Sortino Ratio | 0.15 |
| Calmar Ratio | 0.13 |
CORRELATION STATISTICS
| Correlation to SP500 | -0.04 |
|---|---|
| Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life | 414.6% |
| Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu) | -349.9% |
Return Statistics
| Ann Return (w trading costs) | 2.6% |
|---|---|
| Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant) | 0.0% |
| Return Pcnt Since TOS Status | 0.0% |
| Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees) | 4.1% |
Slump
| Current Slump as Pcnt Equity | 49.9% |
|---|---|
| Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life | 0.9% |
Instruments
| Percent Trades Forex | 0.0% |
|---|---|
| Percent Trades Futures | 1.0% |
| Percent Trades Options | 0.0% |
| Percent Trades Stocks | 0.0% |
Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
| Chance of 10% account loss | 100.0% |
|---|---|
| Chance of 20% account loss | 100.0% |
| Chance of 30% account loss | 100.0% |
| Chance of 40% account loss | 6.7% |
| Chance of 50% account loss | 0.0% |
| Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
Automation
| Percentage Signals Automated | 0.0% |
|---|
Popularity
| Popularity (Today) | 0 |
|---|---|
| Popularity (Last 6 weeks) | 0 |
| Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale) | 0 |
Trading Style
| Any stock shorts? 0/1 | 0 |
|---|
Trades-Own-System Certification
| Trades Own System? | 0 |
|---|---|
| TOS percent | 0.0% |
Win / Loss
| Avg Loss | $946 |
|---|---|
| Avg Win | $1,046 |
| # Winners | 1225 |
| Sum Trade PL (losers) | $1,164,632 |
| Sum Trade PL (winners) | $1,281,466 |
| Num Months Winners | 35 |
| # Losers | 1231 |
| % Winners | 49.9% |
Dividends
| Dividends Received in Model Acct | 0 |
|---|
Age
| Num Months filled monthly returns table | 234 |
|---|
Frequency
| Avg Position Time (mins) | 3459.57 |
|---|---|
| Avg Position Time (hrs) | 57.66 |
| Avg Trade Length | 2.40 |
| Last Trade Ago | 6200 |
Regression
| Alpha | 0 |
|---|---|
| Beta | -0.02 |
| Treynor Index | -0.15 |
Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
| MAE:Equity, average, all trades | 0.01 |
|---|---|
| MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | 0.01 |
| MAE:Equity, average, losing trades | 0.01 |
| MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | — |
| MAE:Equity, average, winning trades | 0 |
| MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | — |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades | -12.09 |
| MAE:PL (avg, all trades) | -0.49 |
| MAE:PL (avg, losing trades) | — |
| MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats | 61.29 |
| MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats | 53.17 |
| MAE:PL (avg, winning trades) | — |
| MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy | — |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades | 0.44 |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades | -1.32 |
| Hold-and-Hope Ratio | -0.08 |
RATIO STATISTICS
| Mean | 0.08 |
|---|---|
| SD | 0.17 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.49 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.48 |
| df | 87 |
| t | 1.31 |
| p | 0.10 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.24 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 1.21 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -0.25 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 1.21 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.87 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 1.86 |
| Upside part of mean | 0.17 |
| Downside part of mean | -0.09 |
| Upside SD | 0.14 |
| Downside SD | 0.09 |
| N nonnegative terms | 69 |
| N negative terms | 19 |
| N of observations | 88 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.16 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.08 |
| SD of predictor | 0.25 |
| SD of criterion | 0.17 |
| Covariance | -0.01 |
| r | -0.22 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | -0.15 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.10 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.03 |
| DF error | 86 |
| t(b) | -2.12 |
| p(b) | 0.98 |
| t(a) | 1.71 |
| p(a) | 0.05 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.29 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.01 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.02 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.23 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | -0.54 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.10 |
| Mean | 0.07 |
| SD | 0.16 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.41 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.41 |
| df | 87 |
| t | 1.12 |
| p | 0.13 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.31 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 1.14 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -0.32 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 1.14 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.68 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 1.66 |
| Upside part of mean | 0.16 |
| Downside part of mean | -0.10 |
| Upside SD | 0.13 |
| Downside SD | 0.10 |
| N nonnegative terms | 69 |
| N negative terms | 19 |
| N of observations | 88 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.13 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.07 |
| SD of predictor | 0.25 |
| SD of criterion | 0.16 |
| Covariance | -0.01 |
| r | -0.22 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | -0.15 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.09 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.03 |
| DF error | 86 |
| t(b) | -2.13 |
| p(b) | 0.98 |
| t(a) | 1.45 |
| p(a) | 0.08 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.28 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.01 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.03 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.20 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | -0.46 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.09 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.07 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.09 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.01 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.02 |
| Mean | 0.45 |
| SD | 0.92 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.50 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.50 |
| df | 1936 |
| t | 1.35 |
| p | 0.48 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.22 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 1.22 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -0.22 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 1.22 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.89 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 3.78 |
| Upside part of mean | 1.94 |
| Downside part of mean | -1.48 |
| Upside SD | 0.76 |
| Downside SD | 0.51 |
| N nonnegative terms | 1490 |
| N negative terms | 447 |
| N of observations | 1937 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.31 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.45 |
| SD of predictor | 0.52 |
| SD of criterion | 0.92 |
| Covariance | -0.16 |
| r | -0.33 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | -0.59 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.64 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.75 |
| DF error | 1935 |
| t(b) | -15.47 |
| p(b) | 0.71 |
| t(a) | 2.01 |
| p(a) | 0.47 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.66 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.51 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.02 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 1.26 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | -0.77 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.64 |
| Mean | 0.07 |
| SD | 0.88 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.08 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.08 |
| df | 1936 |
| t | 0.21 |
| p | 0.50 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.64 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0.80 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -0.64 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0.80 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.11 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 2.78 |
| Upside part of mean | 1.72 |
| Downside part of mean | -1.65 |
| Upside SD | 0.62 |
| Downside SD | 0.62 |
| N nonnegative terms | 1490 |
| N negative terms | 447 |
| N of observations | 1937 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.18 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.07 |
| SD of predictor | 0.51 |
| SD of criterion | 0.88 |
| Covariance | -0.15 |
| r | -0.34 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | -0.59 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.17 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.68 |
| DF error | 1935 |
| t(b) | -16.06 |
| p(b) | 0.71 |
| t(a) | 0.57 |
| p(a) | 0.49 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.66 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.51 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.42 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.77 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | -0.11 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.17 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.08 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.11 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.01 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.02 |
| Mean | 0 |
| SD | 0 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0 |
| df | 0 |
| t | 0 |
| p | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0 |
| Sortino ratio | 0 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 0 |
| Upside part of mean | 0 |
| Downside part of mean | 0 |
| Upside SD | 0 |
| Downside SD | 0 |
| N nonnegative terms | 131 |
| N negative terms | 0 |
| N of observations | 131 |
| Mean of predictor | 1.81 |
| Mean of criterion | 0 |
| SD of predictor | 0.70 |
| SD of criterion | 0 |
| Covariance | 0 |
| r | 0 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0 |
| Mean Square Error | 0 |
| DF error | 0 |
| t(b) | 0 |
| p(b) | 0 |
| t(a) | 0 |
| p(a) | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0 |
| Mean | 0 |
| SD | 0 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0 |
| df | 0 |
| t | 0 |
| p | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0 |
| Sortino ratio | 0 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 0 |
| Upside part of mean | 0 |
| Downside part of mean | 0 |
| Upside SD | 0 |
| Downside SD | 0 |
| N nonnegative terms | 131 |
| N negative terms | 0 |
| N of observations | 131 |
| Mean of predictor | 1.57 |
| Mean of criterion | 0 |
| SD of predictor | 0.68 |
| SD of criterion | 0 |
| Covariance | 0 |
| r | 0 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0 |
| Mean Square Error | 0 |
| DF error | 0 |
| t(b) | 0 |
| p(b) | 0 |
| t(a) | 0 |
| p(a) | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0 |
| VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl) | 0.09 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0 |
| VaR(95%) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0 |
ORDER STATISTICS
| Number of observations | 88 |
|---|---|
| Minimum | 0.85 |
| Quartile 1 | 1 |
| Median | 1 |
| Quartile 3 | 1.00 |
| Maximum | 1.22 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.97 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1.00 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.06 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.00 |
| Number outliers low | 16 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.18 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0.96 |
| Number of outliers high | 21 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.24 |
| Mean of outliers high | 1.06 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | -0.98 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.01 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.01 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0.37 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.03 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.08 |
| Number of observations | 1937 |
| Minimum | 0.47 |
| Quartile 1 | 1 |
| Median | 1 |
| Quartile 3 | 1.00 |
| Maximum | 1.76 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.98 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.03 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.00 |
| Number outliers low | 435 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.22 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0.97 |
| Number of outliers high | 462 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.24 |
| Mean of outliers high | 1.03 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 1.21 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.01 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0.62 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.02 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.06 |
| Number of observations | 131 |
| Minimum | 1 |
| Quartile 1 | 1 |
| Median | 1 |
| Quartile 3 | 1 |
| Maximum | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0 |
| Mean of outliers high | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0 |
DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
| Number of observations | 7 |
|---|---|
| Minimum | 0.01 |
| Quartile 1 | 0.03 |
| Median | 0.07 |
| Quartile 3 | 0.09 |
| Maximum | 0.26 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.02 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.05 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0.08 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.18 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.06 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 1 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.14 |
| Mean of outliers high | 0.26 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0 |
| Number of observations | 12 |
| Minimum | 0.01 |
| Quartile 1 | 0.06 |
| Median | 0.09 |
| Quartile 3 | 0.19 |
| Maximum | 0.53 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.03 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.07 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0.13 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.41 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.13 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 2 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.17 |
| Mean of outliers high | 0.48 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | -14.97 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.43 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.43 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | -1.74 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.63 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.64 |
| Number of observations | 0 |
| Minimum | 0 |
| Quartile 1 | 0 |
| Median | 0 |
| Quartile 3 | 0 |
| Maximum | 0 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0 |
| Mean of outliers high | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0 |
| Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life? | -399050272 |
| Max Equity Drawdown (num days) | 99 |
| Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative | 0.0% |
COMBINED STATISTICS
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 0.09 |
|---|---|
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 0.07 |
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | 0.27 |
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 0.40 |
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 0.80 |
| j156mfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| j157mfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 0.09 |
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 0.07 |
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | 0.13 |
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 0.17 |
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 0.65 |
| j313dfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| j314dfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 0 |
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 0 |
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | 0 |
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 0 |
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 0 |
Trading record
Placed 289 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.
| Symbol | Side | Qty | Opened | Closed | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QHG Z9 | long | 2 | Sep 21, 2009 | Sep 21, 2009 | $2,134 |
| QGC Z9 | short | 2 | Sep 21, 2009 | Sep 21, 2009 | ($1,256) |
| QCL V9 | long | 2 | Sep 21, 2009 | Sep 21, 2009 | ($956) |
| TY Z9 | long | 2 | Sep 21, 2009 | Sep 21, 2009 | ($236) |
| KC Z9 | short | 2 | Sep 21, 2009 | Sep 21, 2009 | $59 |
| W Z9 | short | 2 | Sep 21, 2009 | Sep 21, 2009 | ($416) |
| QHG Z9 | short | 2 | Sep 18, 2009 | Sep 18, 2009 | $2,934 |
| W Z9 | long | 2 | Sep 18, 2009 | Sep 18, 2009 | ($16) |
| TY Z9 | long | 2 | Sep 18, 2009 | Sep 18, 2009 | ($204) |
| S X9 | short | 2 | Sep 17, 2009 | Sep 18, 2009 | $59 |
| W Z9 | short | 2 | Sep 17, 2009 | Sep 17, 2009 | $184 |
| QSI Z9 | short | 2 | Sep 17, 2009 | Sep 17, 2009 | $934 |
| QHO V9 | long | 2 | Sep 17, 2009 | Sep 17, 2009 | $572 |
| QGC Z9 | long | 2 | Sep 17, 2009 | Sep 17, 2009 | ($616) |
| QCL V9 | long | 2 | Sep 17, 2009 | Sep 17, 2009 | $1,004 |
| SF Z9 | long | 2 | Sep 17, 2009 | Sep 17, 2009 | $659 |
| JY Z9 | short | 2 | Sep 17, 2009 | Sep 17, 2009 | ($741) |
| EU Z9 | long | 2 | Sep 17, 2009 | Sep 17, 2009 | $334 |
| QRB V9 | long | 2 | Sep 17, 2009 | Sep 17, 2009 | ($520) |
| TY Z9 | short | 2 | Sep 17, 2009 | Sep 17, 2009 | ($1,172) |
| KC Z9 | long | 2 | Sep 17, 2009 | Sep 17, 2009 | ($504) |
| QHG Z9 | long | 2 | Sep 17, 2009 | Sep 17, 2009 | ($1,391) |
| QHG Z9 | short | 2 | Sep 17, 2009 | Sep 17, 2009 | ($1,316) |
| W Z9 | long | 2 | Sep 17, 2009 | Sep 17, 2009 | ($1,216) |
| W Z9 | long | 2 | Sep 17, 2009 | Sep 17, 2009 | ($41) |
| W Z9 | long | 2 | Sep 17, 2009 | Sep 17, 2009 | ($16) |
| W Z9 | short | 2 | Sep 17, 2009 | Sep 17, 2009 | ($116) |
| W Z9 | long | 2 | Sep 17, 2009 | Sep 17, 2009 | ($41) |
| W Z9 | short | 2 | Sep 17, 2009 | Sep 17, 2009 | ($66) |
| W Z9 | long | 2 | Sep 17, 2009 | Sep 17, 2009 | ($16) |
Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.