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Captura DTS System

Stocks · Started Jun 2007

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
2.8%
Max Drawdown
14.9%
Trades
1306
Win Trades
78.9%
Profit Factor
1.50
Win Months
15.9%

About this strategy

Details:

All orders are entered before markets open. All positions are held at least one night. Sometimes it send intraday orders to execute all positions, but this happens rarely.

Positions are opened with limit orders and closed either by limit orders (profit target) or market orders (stop-loss, timeout).
All orders are sent some hours before markets open.

The risk is "dialed" to ~25% average drawdown in a $100.000 account for presentation on collective2. If you wish to increase or decrease income and profits, you may scale the trade's risk/reward ratio as desired by trading more or less per moneymanagement.

Stay disciplined !






Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2007-0.9-0.56.11.02.0-2.00.86.4
2008-2.72.00.65.0-1.12.22.02.56.5-1.90.12.618.9
20095.64.10.12.02.8-0.10.72.92.81.61.34.532.1
2010-3.51.60.92.4-1.0-2.91.1-3.61.42.5-0.66.64.7
2011-0.10.71.51.32.4-0.8-1.3-4.6-4.32.91.2-1.5-3.1
20120.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20130.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.0
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began6/12/2007
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age234 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades1306
# Profitable1031
% Profitable78.9%
Avg trade duration4.2 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown14.9%
drawdown periodOct 01, 2008 - Oct 10, 2008
Annual Return (Compounded)2.8%
Avg win$258
Avg loss$662

Ratios

W:L ratio1.50
Sharpe Ratio0.14
Sortino Ratio0.21
Calmar Ratio0.02

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.26
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life411.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-343.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)2.8%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)3.4%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity9.3%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss13.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.5%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$662
Avg Win$258
# Winners1031
Sum Trade PL (losers)$181,967
Sum Trade PL (winners)$265,648
Num Months Winners41
# Losers275
% Winners78.9%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct7013

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table232

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)6064.52
Avg Position Time (hrs)101.07
Avg Trade Length4.20
Last Trade Ago5384

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.07
Treynor Index0.04

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades8.80
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.11
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats40.64
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats38.95
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.96
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.63
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.11

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.03
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.18
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.18
df80
t0.47
p0.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.58
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.93
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.58
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.93
Sortino ratio0.20
Upside Potential Ratio0.85
Upside part of mean0.15
Downside part of mean-0.11
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.17
N nonnegative terms64
N negative terms17
N of observations81
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion0.03
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance-0.02
r-0.42
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.29
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.10
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error79
t(b)-4.16
p(b)1.00
t(a)1.44
p(a)0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.23
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.12
Jensen alpha (a)0.10
Mean0.01
SD0.24
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.04
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.04
df80
t0.11
p0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.71
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.80
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.71
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.80
Sortino ratio0.05
Upside Potential Ratio0.64
Upside part of mean0.14
Downside part of mean-0.13
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.22
N nonnegative terms64
N negative terms17
N of observations81
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.01
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.24
Covariance-0.03
r-0.39
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.33
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.07
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error79
t(b)-3.74
p(b)1.00
t(a)0.83
p(a)0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.24
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.03
Jensen alpha (a)0.07
VaR(95%)0.11
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.13
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean0.06
SD0.28
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.20
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.20
df1780
t0.52
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.95
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.55
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.95
Sortino ratio0.25
Upside Potential Ratio3.34
Upside part of mean0.74
Downside part of mean-0.69
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.22
N nonnegative terms1326
N negative terms455
N of observations1781
Mean of predictor0.39
Mean of criterion0.06
SD of predictor0.55
SD of criterion0.28
Covariance-0.05
r-0.30
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.15
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.12
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error1779
t(b)-13.29
p(b)0.69
t(a)1.12
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.32
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.36
Jensen alpha (a)0.12
Mean0.01
SD0.31
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.03
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.03
df1780
t0.09
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.72
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.78
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.72
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.78
Sortino ratio0.04
Upside Potential Ratio2.73
Upside part of mean0.73
Downside part of mean-0.72
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.27
N nonnegative terms1326
N negative terms455
N of observations1781
Mean of predictor0.24
Mean of criterion0.01
SD of predictor0.54
SD of criterion0.31
Covariance-0.05
r-0.29
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.17
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.05
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error1779
t(b)-12.67
p(b)0.68
t(a)0.44
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.28
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.06
Jensen alpha (a)0.05
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.75
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.68
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.52
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.67
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations81
Minimum0.57
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.09
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low5
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.88
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.07
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-2.29
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.62
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.13
Number of observations1781
Minimum0.56
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.15
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low302
Percentage of outliers low0.17
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high324
Percentage of outliers high0.18
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.01
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.55
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations5
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.04
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.43
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.04
Mean of quarter 30.07
Mean of quarter 40.43
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.43
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations17
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.45
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.17
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high0.45
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.84
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.18
Expected Shortfall (moments method)1.06
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.42
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.22
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-395639136
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)9
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.01
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.01
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.02
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.02
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.08
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.01
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.01
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.02
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.06
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.26
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 489 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
PCLN long43Dec 14, 2011Dec 16, 2011$214
RIMM long1234Dec 13, 2011Dec 16, 2011($2,683)
SHLD long359Dec 13, 2011Dec 16, 2011($2,854)
WYNN long183Dec 13, 2011Dec 16, 2011$324
FSLR long619Dec 15, 2011Dec 16, 2011$373
WCRX long1380Dec 14, 2011Dec 15, 2011$368
AMZN long110Dec 14, 2011Dec 15, 2011$627
ILMN long736Dec 13, 2011Dec 14, 2011$319
BRCM long673Dec 13, 2011Dec 14, 2011$776
AMAT long1914Nov 23, 2011Nov 28, 2011$340
CERN long668Nov 18, 2011Nov 28, 2011($242)
WCRX long1241Nov 16, 2011Nov 25, 2011($1,606)
SHLD long297Nov 17, 2011Nov 25, 2011($1,752)
INFY long1468Nov 17, 2011Nov 25, 2011($1,658)
HSIC long318Nov 17, 2011Nov 25, 2011($680)
VRTX long711Nov 21, 2011Nov 23, 2011($5)
ATVI long1575Nov 15, 2011Nov 23, 2011($572)
NFLX long1821Nov 17, 2011Nov 18, 2011$341
CMCSA long933Nov 17, 2011Nov 18, 2011$331
PCAR long490Nov 15, 2011Nov 18, 2011$311
DLTR long522Nov 17, 2011Nov 18, 2011$337
CTRP long745Nov 16, 2011Nov 17, 2011$338
SHLD long284Nov 15, 2011Nov 16, 2011$352
RIMM long1115Nov 10, 2011Nov 11, 2011$318
ALXN long312Nov 10, 2011Nov 11, 2011$328
CMCSA long892Nov 10, 2011Nov 11, 2011$646
VRTX long533Nov 3, 2011Nov 9, 2011$280
CMCSA long880Nov 7, 2011Nov 8, 2011$470
BRCM long562Nov 3, 2011Nov 4, 2011$675
VRX long500Nov 1, 2011Nov 4, 2011$2,547

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.