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Conservative Forex

Forex · Started Oct 2007

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-3.6%
Max Drawdown
72.6%
Trades
97
Win Trades
56.7%
Profit Factor
0.80
Win Months
2.2%

About this strategy

System is trading the major currencies VS usd and their Crosses.

The monthly fee is only $25, but will be higher in 2-3 months.
The system is also free for auto traders.

Trades are mostly opened for 4-5 days, but sometimes if profitable well let them run even for a few weeks.

This is Conservative system, we are using small sizes to have very low risk, you can scale this them to lower/higher the risk.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20072.626.928.867.6
2008-70.2-0.2-0.20.10.30.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-70.3
20090.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.00.00.0-0.0
20100.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.00.00.00.00.0-0.00.0
20110.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20120.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began10/16/2007
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age230 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades97
# Profitable55
% Profitable56.7%
Avg trade duration3.2 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown72.6%
drawdown periodDec 27, 2007 - Jan 16, 2008
Annual Return (Compounded)-3.6%
Avg win$3,995
Avg loss$6,345

Ratios

W:L ratio0.82
Sharpe Ratio-0.23
Sortino Ratio-0.30
Calmar Ratio-0.26

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.03
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life396.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-448.1%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-3.6%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-3.3%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity262.1%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$6,345
Avg Win$3,995
# Winners55
Sum Trade PL (losers)$266,506
Sum Trade PL (winners)$219,701
Num Months Winners8
# Losers42
% Winners56.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table228

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)4653.05
Avg Position Time (hrs)77.55
Avg Trade Length3.20
Last Trade Ago6815

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta0.02
Treynor Index-0.54

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.05
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.25
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.08
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-9.73
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.88
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats89.28
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats79.22
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.70
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.18
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.10

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.10
SD0.33
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.30
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.30
df67
t-0.72
p0.76
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.52
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.13
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.52
Sortino ratio-0.34
Upside Potential Ratio0.20
Upside part of mean0.06
Downside part of mean-0.16
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.30
N nonnegative terms59
N negative terms9
N of observations68
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion-0.10
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.33
Covariance0.02
r0.23
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.34
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.17
Mean Square Error0.11
DF error66
t(b)1.88
p(b)0.03
t(a)-1.21
p(a)0.88
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.70
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.11
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.30
Jensen alpha (a)-0.17
Mean-0.19
SD0.50
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.39
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.39
df67
t-0.93
p0.82
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.44
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.21
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.44
Sortino ratio-0.40
Upside Potential Ratio0.11
Upside part of mean0.05
Downside part of mean-0.25
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.48
N nonnegative terms59
N negative terms9
N of observations68
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion-0.19
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.50
Covariance0.03
r0.25
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.54
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.29
Mean Square Error0.23
DF error66
t(b)2.06
p(b)0.02
t(a)-1.41
p(a)0.92
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.71
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.12
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.36
Jensen alpha (a)-0.29
VaR(95%)0.22
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.27
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean2.26
SD2.75
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.82
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.82
df1490
t1.96
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.65
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.00
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.65
Sortino ratio2.31
Upside Potential Ratio4.11
Upside part of mean4.02
Downside part of mean-1.76
Upside SD2.57
Downside SD0.98
N nonnegative terms1382
N negative terms109
N of observations1491
Mean of predictor0.43
Mean of criterion2.26
SD of predictor0.61
SD of criterion2.75
Covariance0.44
r0.26
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.19
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.76
Mean Square Error7.03
DF error1489
t(b)10.52
p(b)0.33
t(a)1.58
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.96
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.41
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.94
Treynor index (mean / b)1.91
Jensen alpha (a)1.76
Mean-0.19
SD2.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.09
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.09
df1490
t-0.22
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.91
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.73
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.91
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.73
Sortino ratio-0.13
Upside Potential Ratio1.59
Upside part of mean2.43
Downside part of mean-2.62
Upside SD1.49
Downside SD1.53
N nonnegative terms1382
N negative terms109
N of observations1491
Mean of predictor0.24
Mean of criterion-0.19
SD of predictor0.60
SD of criterion2.13
Covariance0.38
r0.29
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.45
Mean Square Error4.17
DF error1489
t(b)11.82
p(b)0.32
t(a)-0.52
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.86
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.23
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.19
Jensen alpha (a)-0.45
VaR(95%)0.20
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.24
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.67
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.64
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.47
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.62
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations68
Minimum0.33
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.35
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low9
Percentage of outliers low0.13
Mean of outliers low0.90
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.06
Extreme Value Index (moments method)3.68
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)3.50
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations1491
Minimum0.31
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum3.20
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.06
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low109
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.91
Number of outliers high96
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.24
Extreme Value Index (moments method)2.70
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.41
VaR(95%) (regression method)-0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.26
Quartile 10.36
Median0.46
Quartile 30.57
Maximum0.67
Mean of quarter 10.26
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.67
Inter Quartile Range0.21
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations3
Minimum0.67
Quartile 10.67
Median0.67
Quartile 30.68
Maximum0.69
Mean of quarter 10.67
Mean of quarter 20.67
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.69
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-392460160
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)20
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.12
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.18
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.26
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.26
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.66
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.12
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.18
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.25
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.25
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.74
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 91 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
GBP/JPY long960Jan 4, 2008Jan 16, 2008($475)
EUR/GBP short960Jan 4, 2008Jan 14, 2008($15,541)
NZD/USD long960Dec 31, 2007Jan 3, 2008$1,987
GBP/JPY long960Jan 3, 2008Jan 3, 2008($72)
EUR/GBP short960Dec 27, 2007Jan 3, 2008($18,840)
AUD/USD long960Jan 2, 2008Jan 3, 2008$3,456
EUR/USD short960Dec 31, 2007Jan 2, 2008$5,578
GBP/JPY long480Dec 23, 2007Dec 31, 2007($49)
USD/JPY long480Dec 23, 2007Dec 31, 2007($67)
GBP/NZD long960Dec 31, 2007Dec 31, 2007$12,080
AUD/USD long480Dec 23, 2007Dec 31, 2007$5,496
NZD/USD long480Dec 23, 2007Dec 31, 2007$5,232
EUR/USD short480Dec 23, 2007Dec 24, 2007($1,219)
EUR/GBP short960Dec 23, 2007Dec 24, 2007($5,647)
NZD/USD long960Dec 18, 2007Dec 21, 2007$5,741
GBP/JPY long960Dec 20, 2007Dec 21, 2007$111
GBP/NZD short960Dec 18, 2007Dec 20, 2007$23,940
NZD/USD long960Dec 13, 2007Dec 17, 2007($23,424)
GBP/NZD short960Dec 12, 2007Dec 17, 2007($34,648)
EUR/USD short960Dec 13, 2007Dec 14, 2007$10,464
EUR/USD short960Dec 12, 2007Dec 13, 2007$9,187
GBP/USD short480Dec 12, 2007Dec 13, 2007$4,022
EUR/JPY long480Dec 11, 2007Dec 12, 2007$16
AUD/USD long480Dec 11, 2007Dec 12, 2007$144
GBP/NZD short480Dec 11, 2007Dec 12, 2007$6,342
USD/JPY long480Dec 10, 2007Dec 12, 2007$13
GBP/JPY long480Dec 10, 2007Dec 12, 2007$23
NZD/USD long480Dec 11, 2007Dec 11, 2007($4,478)
EUR/CHF short960Dec 11, 2007Dec 11, 2007($2,036)
EUR/CHF short960Dec 10, 2007Dec 11, 2007($3,887)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.