Merlin
- hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
- 2.6%
- Max Drawdown
- 32.3%
- Trades
- 167
- Win Trades
- 55.7%
- Profit Factor
- 1.40
- Win Months
- 6.2%
About this strategy
After over two years of live trading we have concluded that the statistical model approach employed by our system is basically incompatible with the trading psyche and expectations of the vast majority of C2 subscribers. Without the understanding, appreciation, and/or tolerance for normal statistical variations, many have only been interested in joining after the system has recorded a sustained short term uptrend and then have bailed like rats on a sinking ship at the first sign of a downturn, essentially repeating the same "buy high/sell low" behavior that makes them unsuccessful as individual traders in the first place. We are also preparing to take the system towards a more exclusive offering in another venue, and so to avoid any potential future conflict of interest or further disappointments due to failure to meet unrealistic subscriber expectations, the system has been closed to new subscribers on C2 since Jan 1, 2009. If you do not think you are a typical C2 subscriber and have individual questions or issues regarding the system, please send a *private* email to: tmgsignal@comcast.net or admin@themerlingroup-inc.com (website).
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | -4.4 | 7.9 | 3.2 | ||||||||||
| 2008 | -9.4 | 2.9 | 6.9 | 0.6 | 8.1 | 2.2 | 14.1 | 0.4 | 6.0 | 18.5 | -6.4 | -4.4 | 42.9 |
| 2009 | -3.5 | 13.0 | -16.0 | 8.9 | 8.2 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.5 |
| 2010 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2011 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2012 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2013 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2014 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2015 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2016 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2017 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2018 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2019 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2020 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2021 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2022 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2023 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2024 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Statistics
Overview
| Strategy began | 11/6/2007 |
|---|---|
| Suggested Minimum Capital | $27,421 |
| Age | 230 months |
| What it trades | Stocks |
| # Trades | 167 |
| # Profitable | 93 |
| % Profitable | 55.7% |
| Avg trade duration | 2.4 days |
| Max peak-to-valley drawdown | 32.3% |
| drawdown period | Oct 13, 2008 - Jan 15, 2009 |
| Annual Return (Compounded) | 2.6% |
| Avg win | $1,178 |
| Avg loss | $1,038 |
Ratios
| W:L ratio | 1.43 |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.10 |
| Sortino Ratio | 0.15 |
| Calmar Ratio | 0.54 |
CORRELATION STATISTICS
| Correlation to SP500 | 0.06 |
|---|---|
| Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life | 402.4% |
| Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu) | -340.7% |
Return Statistics
| Ann Return (w trading costs) | 2.6% |
|---|---|
| Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant) | 0.0% |
| Return Pcnt Since TOS Status | 0.0% |
| Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees) | 4.3% |
Slump
| Current Slump as Pcnt Equity | 19.9% |
|---|---|
| Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life | 0.9% |
Instruments
| Percent Trades Forex | 0.0% |
|---|---|
| Percent Trades Futures | 0.0% |
| Percent Trades Options | 0.0% |
| Percent Trades Stocks | 1.0% |
Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
| Chance of 10% account loss | 100.0% |
|---|---|
| Chance of 20% account loss | 100.0% |
| Chance of 30% account loss | 100.0% |
| Chance of 40% account loss | 0.0% |
| Chance of 50% account loss | 0.0% |
| Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 0.0% |
| Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 100.0% |
Automation
| Percentage Signals Automated | 0.0% |
|---|
Popularity
| Popularity (Today) | 0 |
|---|---|
| Popularity (Last 6 weeks) | 0 |
| Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale) | 0 |
Trading Style
| Any stock shorts? 0/1 | 1 |
|---|
Trades-Own-System Certification
| Trades Own System? | 0 |
|---|---|
| TOS percent | 0.0% |
Win / Loss
| Avg Loss | $1,038 |
|---|---|
| Avg Win | $1,178 |
| # Winners | 93 |
| Sum Trade PL (losers) | $76,807 |
| Sum Trade PL (winners) | $109,539 |
| Num Months Winners | 17 |
| # Losers | 74 |
| % Winners | 55.7% |
Dividends
| Dividends Received in Model Acct | 99 |
|---|
Age
| Num Months filled monthly returns table | 227 |
|---|
Frequency
| Avg Position Time (mins) | 3406.18 |
|---|---|
| Avg Position Time (hrs) | 56.77 |
| Avg Trade Length | 2.40 |
| Last Trade Ago | 6313 |
Regression
| Alpha | 0 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.03 |
| Treynor Index | 0.11 |
Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
| MAE:Equity, average, all trades | 0.02 |
|---|---|
| MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | 0.06 |
| MAE:Equity, average, losing trades | 0.03 |
| MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | — |
| MAE:Equity, average, winning trades | 0.01 |
| MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | — |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades | 5.41 |
| MAE:PL (avg, all trades) | -1.11 |
| MAE:PL (avg, losing trades) | — |
| MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats | 71.30 |
| MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats | 10 |
| MAE:PL (avg, winning trades) | — |
| MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy | — |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades | 0.33 |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades | -1.22 |
| Hold-and-Hope Ratio | 0.18 |
RATIO STATISTICS
| Mean | 0.17 |
|---|---|
| SD | 0.23 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.74 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.73 |
| df | 65 |
| t | 1.74 |
| p | 0.04 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.11 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 1.58 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -0.11 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 1.58 |
| Sortino ratio | 1.76 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 2.65 |
| Upside part of mean | 0.25 |
| Downside part of mean | -0.09 |
| Upside SD | 0.21 |
| Downside SD | 0.10 |
| N nonnegative terms | 56 |
| N negative terms | 10 |
| N of observations | 66 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.22 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.17 |
| SD of predictor | 0.26 |
| SD of criterion | 0.23 |
| Covariance | -0.02 |
| r | -0.38 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | -0.33 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.24 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.04 |
| DF error | 64 |
| t(b) | -3.28 |
| p(b) | 1.00 |
| t(a) | 2.59 |
| p(a) | 0.01 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.53 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.13 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.05 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.42 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | -0.51 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.24 |
| Mean | 0.14 |
| SD | 0.21 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.68 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.67 |
| df | 65 |
| t | 1.59 |
| p | 0.06 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.17 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 1.52 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -0.18 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 1.51 |
| Sortino ratio | 1.40 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 2.28 |
| Upside part of mean | 0.23 |
| Downside part of mean | -0.09 |
| Upside SD | 0.19 |
| Downside SD | 0.10 |
| N nonnegative terms | 56 |
| N negative terms | 10 |
| N of observations | 66 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.18 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.14 |
| SD of predictor | 0.26 |
| SD of criterion | 0.21 |
| Covariance | -0.02 |
| r | -0.39 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | -0.31 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.20 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.04 |
| DF error | 64 |
| t(b) | -3.36 |
| p(b) | 1.00 |
| t(a) | 2.34 |
| p(a) | 0.01 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.50 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.13 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.03 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.37 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | -0.46 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.20 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.08 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.11 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.01 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.02 |
| Mean | 0.30 |
| SD | 0.57 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.53 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.53 |
| df | 1461 |
| t | 1.24 |
| p | 0.48 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.30 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 1.36 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -0.30 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 1.36 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.83 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 4.60 |
| Upside part of mean | 1.67 |
| Downside part of mean | -1.37 |
| Upside SD | 0.44 |
| Downside SD | 0.36 |
| N nonnegative terms | 1280 |
| N negative terms | 182 |
| N of observations | 1462 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.38 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.30 |
| SD of predictor | 0.54 |
| SD of criterion | 0.57 |
| Covariance | -0.09 |
| r | -0.29 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | -0.31 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.42 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.30 |
| DF error | 1460 |
| t(b) | -11.75 |
| p(b) | 0.65 |
| t(a) | 1.81 |
| p(a) | 0.48 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.36 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.26 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.04 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.87 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | -0.97 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.42 |
| Mean | 0.14 |
| SD | 0.56 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.25 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.25 |
| df | 1461 |
| t | 0.59 |
| p | 0.49 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.58 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 1.08 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -0.58 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 1.08 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.36 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 4.05 |
| Upside part of mean | 1.58 |
| Downside part of mean | -1.44 |
| Upside SD | 0.40 |
| Downside SD | 0.39 |
| N nonnegative terms | 1280 |
| N negative terms | 182 |
| N of observations | 1462 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.23 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.14 |
| SD of predictor | 0.54 |
| SD of criterion | 0.56 |
| Covariance | -0.09 |
| r | -0.30 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | -0.31 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.21 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.29 |
| DF error | 1460 |
| t(b) | -11.92 |
| p(b) | 0.65 |
| t(a) | 0.94 |
| p(a) | 0.49 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.36 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.26 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.23 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.66 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | -0.46 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.21 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.06 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.07 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.00 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.01 |
| Mean | 0 |
| SD | 0 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0 |
| df | 0 |
| t | 0 |
| p | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0 |
| Sortino ratio | 0 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 0 |
| Upside part of mean | 0 |
| Downside part of mean | 0 |
| Upside SD | 0 |
| Downside SD | 0 |
| N nonnegative terms | 131 |
| N negative terms | 0 |
| N of observations | 131 |
| Mean of predictor | 1.63 |
| Mean of criterion | 0 |
| SD of predictor | 0.66 |
| SD of criterion | 0 |
| Covariance | 0 |
| r | 0 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0 |
| Mean Square Error | 0 |
| DF error | 0 |
| t(b) | 0 |
| p(b) | 0 |
| t(a) | 0 |
| p(a) | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0 |
| Mean | 0 |
| SD | 0 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0 |
| df | 0 |
| t | 0 |
| p | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0 |
| Sortino ratio | 0 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 0 |
| Upside part of mean | 0 |
| Downside part of mean | 0 |
| Upside SD | 0 |
| Downside SD | 0 |
| N nonnegative terms | 131 |
| N negative terms | 0 |
| N of observations | 131 |
| Mean of predictor | 1.41 |
| Mean of criterion | 0 |
| SD of predictor | 0.64 |
| SD of criterion | 0 |
| Covariance | 0 |
| r | 0 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0 |
| Mean Square Error | 0 |
| DF error | 0 |
| t(b) | 0 |
| p(b) | 0 |
| t(a) | 0 |
| p(a) | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0 |
| VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl) | 0.06 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0 |
| VaR(95%) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0 |
ORDER STATISTICS
| Number of observations | 66 |
|---|---|
| Minimum | 0.83 |
| Quartile 1 | 1 |
| Median | 1 |
| Quartile 3 | 1 |
| Maximum | 1.33 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.97 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.08 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0 |
| Number outliers low | 10 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.15 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0.95 |
| Number of outliers high | 15 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.23 |
| Mean of outliers high | 1.09 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | -37.78 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.00 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.00 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | -0.24 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.04 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.07 |
| Number of observations | 1462 |
| Minimum | 0.79 |
| Quartile 1 | 1 |
| Median | 1 |
| Quartile 3 | 1 |
| Maximum | 1.32 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.98 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.03 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0 |
| Number outliers low | 182 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.12 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0.96 |
| Number of outliers high | 215 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.15 |
| Mean of outliers high | 1.04 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | -0.17 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.00 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.01 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0 |
| Number of observations | 131 |
| Minimum | 1 |
| Quartile 1 | 1 |
| Median | 1 |
| Quartile 3 | 1 |
| Maximum | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0 |
| Mean of outliers high | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0 |
DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
| Number of observations | 8 |
|---|---|
| Minimum | 0.00 |
| Quartile 1 | 0.01 |
| Median | 0.03 |
| Quartile 3 | 0.07 |
| Maximum | 0.21 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.00 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.02 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0.04 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.16 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.06 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 1 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.12 |
| Mean of outliers high | 0.21 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0 |
| Number of observations | 19 |
| Minimum | 0.04 |
| Quartile 1 | 0.07 |
| Median | 0.12 |
| Quartile 3 | 0.20 |
| Maximum | 0.28 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.05 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.10 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0.16 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.24 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.13 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0 |
| Mean of outliers high | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | -0.44 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.26 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0.28 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | -0.27 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.26 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0.28 |
| Number of observations | 0 |
| Minimum | 0 |
| Quartile 1 | 0 |
| Median | 0 |
| Quartile 3 | 0 |
| Maximum | 0 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0 |
| Mean of outliers high | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0 |
| Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life? | -378507200 |
| Max Equity Drawdown (num days) | 94 |
| Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative | 0.0% |
COMBINED STATISTICS
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 0.22 |
|---|---|
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 0.15 |
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | 0.74 |
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 0.93 |
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 1.43 |
| j156mfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| j157mfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 0.21 |
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 0.15 |
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | 0.54 |
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 0.63 |
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 2.21 |
| j313dfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| j314dfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 0 |
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 0 |
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | 0 |
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 0 |
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 0 |
Trading record
Placed 63 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.
| Symbol | Side | Qty | Opened | Closed | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QQQQ | long | 3000 | May 7, 2009 | Jun 1, 2009 | $4,375 |
| QQQQ | short | 3000 | Apr 23, 2009 | May 7, 2009 | ($3,200) |
| QQQQ | short | 3200 | Apr 22, 2009 | Apr 23, 2009 | $315 |
| QQQQ | long | 3200 | Apr 21, 2009 | Apr 21, 2009 | $1,595 |
| QQQQ | short | 3000 | Apr 17, 2009 | Apr 20, 2009 | $2,725 |
| QQQQ | long | 1800 | Mar 24, 2009 | Apr 2, 2009 | $2,929 |
| QQQQ | short | 1800 | Mar 23, 2009 | Mar 24, 2009 | ($1,301) |
| QQQQ | short | 3000 | Mar 18, 2009 | Mar 19, 2009 | $1,075 |
| QQQQ | short | 3600 | Mar 10, 2009 | Mar 17, 2009 | ($3,362) |
| QQQQ | long | 2109 | Mar 5, 2009 | Mar 9, 2009 | ($1,355) |
| QQQQ | short | 2000 | Mar 4, 2009 | Mar 5, 2009 | $395 |
| QQQQ | short | 500 | Feb 25, 2009 | Feb 27, 2009 | $555 |
| QQQQ | long | 1920 | Feb 23, 2009 | Feb 24, 2009 | ($389) |
| QQQQ | long | 2000 | Feb 17, 2009 | Feb 20, 2009 | ($2,125) |
| QQQQ | long | 1862 | Feb 12, 2009 | Feb 13, 2009 | $1,559 |
| QQQQ | short | 1716 | Feb 9, 2009 | Feb 12, 2009 | $2,672 |
| QQQQ | long | 1750 | Feb 2, 2009 | Feb 4, 2009 | $2,970 |
| QQQQ | long | 1700 | Jan 20, 2009 | Jan 21, 2009 | $1,610 |
| QQQQ | short | 1600 | Jan 20, 2009 | Jan 20, 2009 | $1,499 |
| QQQQ | long | 1600 | Jan 15, 2009 | Jan 20, 2009 | $795 |
| QQQQ | long | 1600 | Jan 9, 2009 | Jan 14, 2009 | ($2,981) |
| QQQQ | short | 1700 | Jan 5, 2009 | Jan 9, 2009 | $437 |
| QQQQ | short | 1750 | Dec 31, 2008 | Jan 2, 2009 | ($2,035) |
| QQQQ | long | 1750 | Dec 30, 2008 | Dec 31, 2008 | $870 |
| QQQQ | short | 100 | Dec 29, 2008 | Dec 30, 2008 | $23 |
| QQQQ | long | 1750 | Dec 24, 2008 | Dec 29, 2008 | $83 |
| QQQQ | short | 1600 | Dec 17, 2008 | Dec 23, 2008 | $1,947 |
| QQQQ | long | 1650 | Dec 16, 2008 | Dec 16, 2008 | $1,761 |
| QQQQ | short | 1650 | Dec 15, 2008 | Dec 16, 2008 | $276 |
| QQQQ | long | 100 | Dec 10, 2008 | Dec 15, 2008 | ($38) |
Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.