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LongRun

Stocks · Started Feb 2008

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
201
Win Trades
76.1%
Profit Factor
0.40
Win Months
25.2%

About this strategy

Extra effort goes towards giving the system a market neutral exposure or at least keeping the Up/Down market exposure to less than 50% of capital.

There is and should always be very low correlation to ANY market and ANY other collective2 system.

No trades are made just to be fully invested. If there is no edge there's no trading.

15-30 positions have been active at any one time.

Margin is strictly used to add short positions and therefore reduce overall risk.

Feel free to contact me with any Questions/Comments/Requests: c2@netyx.com

Dimitri

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2008-0.2-0.1-0.22.41.3-2.8-0.30.414.410.917.049.1
2009-7.628.60.110.5-2.47.01.45.00.21.70.36.759.6
20100.00.60.5-0.51.2-4.62.82.93.5-0.10.63.911.0
20111.51.4-0.4-7.1-1.1-1.32.8-1.7-5.12.1-6.0-0.9-15.2
2012-0.5-3.13.9-3.8-1.3-3.1-5.2-2.5-0.813.03.93.02.3
2013-10.1-2.5-5.1-6.05.4-2.2-6.21.1-5.8-7.5-0.0-3.1-35.6
2014-1.6-8.9-2.57.9-9.1-10.58.0-13.124.6-11.3-1.21.9-19.8
2015-1.6-8.912.0-6.37.128.1-5.915.46.0-19.3-2.94.922.1
20167.5-5.5-13.2-2.0-3.1-4.7-19.5-1.5-5.625.91.4-2.1-25.3
2017-27.2-13.8-5.5-24.1-38.6-13.524.4-2.70.1-27.6-33.60.00.0
2018-21.10.00.00.0
2020419.6-708.1-67.7-8.8-66.6-6.7-16.4-29.3-76.5-21.0-1569.2
2021-4.3-3.2-2.5-41.4-3.6-16.3-15.3-9.9-2.2-9.2-2.3-5.5
2022-31.3-9.4-13.3-41.3-36.0-26.3-100.9-14.4-69.9-52.7-19.9-32.1
2023-84.6-22.7-49.1-21.8-33.9-28.0-11.1-16.7-11.5-10.1-52.4-18.5
2024-8.0-10.9-4.8-11.5-13.4-18.7-9.5-7.3-0.9-9.5-0.8-8.8
2025-4.7-7.5-19.3-4.5-27.0-15.4-78.8-428.6-9.5-1.4-5.7-1.0
2026-4.4-5.1-20.4-54.1-27.0-8.0-11.1-8.8-0.4-25.4

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began2/25/2008
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age226 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades201
# Profitable153
% Profitable76.1%
Avg trade duration247.3 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodNov 20, 2018 - May 31, 2026
Annual Return (Compounded)0.0%
Avg win$4,830
Avg loss$34,894

Ratios

W:L ratio0.40
Sharpe Ratio0.22
Sortino Ratio2.18
Calmar Ratio-0.81

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.08
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life456.5%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-1650.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$34,894
Avg Win$4,830
# Winners153
Sum Trade PL (losers)$1,674,931
Sum Trade PL (winners)$739,003
Num Months Winners52
# Losers48
% Winners76.1%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct-241596

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table127

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)1009222.31
Avg Position Time (hrs)16820.37
Avg Trade Length700.80
Last Trade Ago5197

Regression

Alpha0
Beta-2.94
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.03
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.09
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-3.05
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)7.05
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats41.39
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats91.58
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.30
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.68
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-1.41

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.28
SD0.56
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.50
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.49
df89
t-1.36
p0.91
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.22
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.21
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.23
Sortino ratio-0.54
Upside Potential Ratio0.63
Upside part of mean0.33
Downside part of mean-0.61
Upside SD0.22
Downside SD0.52
N nonnegative terms47
N negative terms43
N of observations90
Mean of predictor0.25
Mean of criterion-0.28
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.56
Covariance-0.07
r-0.50
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.02
Mean Square Error0.24
DF error88
t(b)-5.40
p(b)1
t(a)-0.09
p(a)0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.68
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.35
Treynor index (mean / b)0.26
Jensen alpha (a)-0.02
Mean-1.66
SD3.81
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.43
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.43
df89
t-1.19
p0.88
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.29
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.15
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.29
Sortino ratio-0.43
Upside Potential Ratio0.08
Upside part of mean0.31
Downside part of mean-1.96
Upside SD0.20
Downside SD3.82
N nonnegative terms47
N negative terms43
N of observations90
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion-1.66
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion3.81
Covariance-0.39
r-0.41
b (slope, estimate of beta)-6.32
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.31
Mean Square Error12.22
DF error88
t(b)-4.24
p(b)1.00
t(a)-0.24
p(a)0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-9.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-3.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.93
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.30
Treynor index (mean / b)0.26
Jensen alpha (a)-0.31
VaR(95%)0.86
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.90
VaR(95%)0.11
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.25
Mean0.13
SD1.71
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.08
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.08
df1969
t0.21
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.64
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.79
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.64
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.79
Sortino ratio0.22
Upside Potential Ratio3.92
Upside part of mean2.36
Downside part of mean-2.22
Upside SD1.60
Downside SD0.60
N nonnegative terms956
N negative terms1014
N of observations1970
Mean of predictor0.37
Mean of criterion0.13
SD of predictor0.48
SD of criterion1.71
Covariance-0.14
r-0.17
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.62
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.36
Mean Square Error2.84
DF error1968
t(b)-7.84
p(b)0.59
t(a)0.58
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.77
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.85
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.56
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.21
Jensen alpha (a)0.36
Mean-1.65
SD3.81
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.43
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.43
df1969
t-1.19
p0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.28
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.15
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.28
Sortino ratio-0.44
Upside Potential Ratio0.52
Upside part of mean1.94
Downside part of mean-3.59
Upside SD0.70
Downside SD3.74
N nonnegative terms956
N negative terms1014
N of observations1970
Mean of predictor0.25
Mean of criterion-1.65
SD of predictor0.48
SD of criterion3.81
Covariance-0.23
r-0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.40
Mean Square Error14.28
DF error1968
t(b)-5.71
p(b)0.56
t(a)-1.01
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.67
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-4.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.31
Treynor index (mean / b)1.63
Jensen alpha (a)-1.40
VaR(95%)0.33
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.39
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean1.54
SD6.33
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.24
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.24
df130
t0.17
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.01
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.53
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.01
Sortino ratio0.83
Upside Potential Ratio5.31
Upside part of mean9.86
Downside part of mean-8.32
Upside SD6.03
Downside SD1.86
N nonnegative terms96
N negative terms35
N of observations131
Mean of predictor2.55
Mean of criterion1.54
SD of predictor0.61
SD of criterion6.33
Covariance-0.58
r-0.15
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.55
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)5.51
Mean Square Error39.49
DF error129
t(b)-1.72
p(b)0.60
t(a)0.60
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-3.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-12.66
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha23.67
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.99
Jensen alpha (a)5.51
Mean-22.99
SD14.59
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.58
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.57
df130
t-1.11
p0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.21
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.35
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.21
Sortino ratio-1.60
Upside Potential Ratio0.32
Upside part of mean4.60
Downside part of mean-27.60
Upside SD2.37
Downside SD14.41
N nonnegative terms96
N negative terms35
N of observations131
Mean of predictor2.36
Mean of criterion-22.99
SD of predictor0.60
SD of criterion14.59
Covariance-1.63
r-0.19
b (slope, estimate of beta)-4.55
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-12.23
Mean Square Error207.01
DF error129
t(b)-2.16
p(b)0.62
t(a)-0.58
p(a)0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-8.72
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-53.68
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha29.21
Treynor index (mean / b)5.05
Jensen alpha (a)-12.23
VaR(95%)0.79
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.85
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations90
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.96
Median1
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.29
Mean of quarter 10.82
Mean of quarter 20.98
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.10
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low7
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.55
Number of outliers high8
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.19
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.93
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.18
Expected Shortfall (moments method)2.74
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.94
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.17
Expected Shortfall (regression method)2.67
Number of observations1970
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum5.26
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low173
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.93
Number of outliers high163
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.09
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.82
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.17
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.69
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.07
Number of observations131
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum5.26
Mean of quarter 10.87
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.15
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low30
Percentage of outliers low0.23
Mean of outliers low0.86
Number of outliers high10
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.49
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.40
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.10
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.74
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.47

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.04
Quartile 10.32
Median0.61
Quartile 30.80
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 10.04
Mean of quarter 20.61
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0.48
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations16
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.04
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.43
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.81
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.40
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.36
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.56
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.52
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations1
Minimum1.00
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-388635072
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)2749
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.8%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.13
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.81
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.81
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.81
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.90
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.13
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.81
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.81
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.89
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-2.09
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-2.00
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-1
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.00
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.18

Trading record

Placed 148 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
BSPM long1667Apr 5, 2011Feb 10, 2012($5,556)
MBND long2000Apr 5, 2011Feb 10, 2012($1,625)
ZSTN long2000Mar 21, 2011Feb 8, 2012($5,985)
CBEH long2000Mar 30, 2011Feb 8, 2012($3,545)
MS long500Aug 12, 2011Jan 31, 2012$635
PLAB long1000Feb 28, 2011Jan 5, 2012($2,645)
ZTR long1250Oct 11, 2011Oct 31, 2011$495
VVTV long1500Aug 22, 2011Oct 21, 2011$115
BK long800Sep 23, 2011Oct 21, 2011$1,643
HERO long1500Aug 22, 2011Oct 21, 2011$790
KKR long800Aug 12, 2011Oct 12, 2011$1,019
CSCO long1500Feb 10, 2011Oct 7, 2011($2,664)
PSLV short1000Feb 9, 2011Sep 23, 2011$2,193
IJT short250Mar 3, 2011Aug 22, 2011$3,018
SMTX long3500Mar 15, 2011Apr 13, 2011($600)
INTT long2500Mar 11, 2011Mar 28, 2011$270
IOSP long400Feb 25, 2011Mar 28, 2011$1,092
EGPT short125Feb 15, 2011Mar 25, 2011$1,621
MCZ long7000Mar 11, 2011Mar 25, 2011$485
ASYS long400Feb 14, 2011Mar 17, 2011($1,092)
PWER long1500Mar 1, 2011Mar 15, 2011$940
SPA long1000Feb 11, 2011Mar 11, 2011$275
LACO long1500Feb 24, 2011Mar 11, 2011$895
DTLK long1500Mar 4, 2011Mar 11, 2011$175
QQQQ short500Feb 10, 2011Mar 10, 2011$955
FFHL long1500Feb 24, 2011Mar 7, 2011$1,480
BBW long1000Feb 18, 2011Mar 7, 2011($75)
PWER long2000Feb 7, 2011Feb 24, 2011($73)
SKBI long1500Feb 3, 2011Feb 18, 2011($515)
BAL short100Feb 17, 2011Feb 18, 2011$1,045

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.