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Gulf Stream 10

Stocks · Started Mar 2008

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-2.8%
Max Drawdown
74.0%
Trades
8508
Win Trades
38.0%
Profit Factor
1.10
Win Months
14.3%

About this strategy

Brief description: Gulf Stream 10 is a long-short trading system which trades 10 different stocks. Good for 50K-150K accounts.

Max allowed subscribers for the system is 6. Subscription is available now!

History performance: Gulf Stream 10 is trend-following system, so it's performance depends on market, in 2000-2007 it gave from +30% to 150% ann. return (worst year was
2007). Max Drawdown was from 7% to 20%.

MM: We don't increase position size as the account increases, but we vary position size every week. We can use margin (1:2 max), so position could be from $0 up to $400 000, but usually about $200 000 (from 03/10/2008). Before 03/10/2008 it was about $100 000.

Orders: All orders are "market orders", so the best way to trade our system is autotrading.

You can also subscribe to

Gulf Stream Hedge Fund: www.collective2.com/go/gulfstreamfund (good for $100K-$1M accounts), subscription is available now

Gulf Stream 10 SE: www.collective2.com/go/gulfstream10se (Similar to Gulf Stream 10, good for 50K-150K accounts), subscription is available now




Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20080.9-6.5-3.216.78.713.117.338.81.11.1117.8
20090.1-5.93.7-7.4-7.43.4-2.0-2.87.71.1-9.6-13.3-29.5
2010-2.57.01.84.88.16.2-15.01.2-4.7-14.1-5.33.7-11.6
20110.69.5-13.2-9.00.3-2.7-5.320.620.610.4-8.4-11.25.0
20121.5-23.57.5-7.1-16.024.610.6-12.2-5.25.4-10.8-5.4-33.5
2013-9.3-9.6-11.4-2.6-1.5-1.6-1.6-1.6-1.60.00.00.0-34.7
20140.00.00.0-0.00.00.00.00.0-0.00.00.00.0-0.0
20150.00.0-0.00.00.00.0-0.00.00.1-0.00.00.00.1
20160.00.0-1.30.00.00.00.0-3.20.00.00.00.0-4.5
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began3/26/2008
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age225 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades8508
# Profitable3230
% Profitable38.0%
Avg trade duration2.7 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown74.0%
drawdown periodJan 15, 2009 - Aug 09, 2016
Annual Return (Compounded)-2.8%
Avg win$906
Avg loss$511

Ratios

W:L ratio1.09
Sharpe Ratio-0.16
Sortino Ratio-0.24
Calmar Ratio0.04

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.03
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life469.5%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-511.7%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-2.8%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)6.7%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity284.3%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$511
Avg Win$906
# Winners3230
Sum Trade PL (losers)$2,695,748
Sum Trade PL (winners)$2,924,922
Num Months Winners35
# Losers5278
% Winners38.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct4829

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table223

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)3845.95
Avg Position Time (hrs)64.10
Avg Trade Length2.70
Last Trade Ago4913

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta-0.03
Treynor Index0.34

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades27.31
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.62
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats19.58
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats24.16
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.28
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.22
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.04

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.10
SD0.31
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.32
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.32
df87
t0.86
p0.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.04
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.41
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.04
Sortino ratio0.40
Upside Potential Ratio1.15
Upside part of mean0.29
Downside part of mean-0.19
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.25
N nonnegative terms55
N negative terms33
N of observations88
Mean of predictor0.29
Mean of criterion0.10
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.31
Covariance-0.03
r-0.36
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.35
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.20
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error86
t(b)-3.54
p(b)1.00
t(a)1.81
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.42
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.28
Jensen alpha (a)0.20
Mean0.03
SD0.43
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.06
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.06
df87
t0.18
p0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.66
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.79
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.66
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.79
Sortino ratio0.07
Upside Potential Ratio0.70
Upside part of mean0.27
Downside part of mean-0.24
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.39
N nonnegative terms55
N negative terms33
N of observations88
Mean of predictor0.24
Mean of criterion0.03
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.43
Covariance-0.04
r-0.33
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.48
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.15
Mean Square Error0.16
DF error86
t(b)-3.27
p(b)1.00
t(a)0.95
p(a)0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.78
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.45
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.06
Jensen alpha (a)0.15
VaR(95%)0.18
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.22
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
Mean0.39
SD0.84
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.46
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.46
df1925
t1.25
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.18
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.26
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.18
Sortino ratio0.75
Upside Potential Ratio3.71
Upside part of mean1.92
Downside part of mean-1.53
Upside SD0.66
Downside SD0.52
N nonnegative terms1278
N negative terms648
N of observations1926
Mean of predictor0.39
Mean of criterion0.39
SD of predictor0.53
SD of criterion0.84
Covariance-0.27
r-0.61
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.96
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.76
Mean Square Error0.44
DF error1924
t(b)-33.69
p(b)0.80
t(a)3.11
p(a)0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.90
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.24
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.40
Jensen alpha (a)0.76
Mean0.03
SD0.87
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.03
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.03
df1925
t0.09
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.75
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.69
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.75
Sortino ratio0.04
Upside Potential Ratio2.55
Upside part of mean1.75
Downside part of mean-1.72
Upside SD0.54
Downside SD0.69
N nonnegative terms1278
N negative terms648
N of observations1926
Mean of predictor0.26
Mean of criterion0.03
SD of predictor0.52
SD of criterion0.87
Covariance-0.28
r-0.62
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.30
Mean Square Error0.47
DF error1924
t(b)-34.85
p(b)0.81
t(a)1.18
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.99
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.79
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.03
Jensen alpha (a)0.30
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor2.00
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.67
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.77
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.66
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations88
Minimum0.36
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.03
Maximum1.27
Mean of quarter 10.94
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.09
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low4
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.77
Number of outliers high13
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high1.12
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.79
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.24
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.81
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.25
Number of observations1926
Minimum0.36
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.79
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low171
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high216
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.06
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.93
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.23
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.78
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.07
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations4
Minimum0.10
Quartile 10.13
Median0.15
Quartile 30.27
Maximum0.64
Mean of quarter 10.10
Mean of quarter 20.14
Mean of quarter 30.15
Mean of quarter 40.64
Inter Quartile Range0.14
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.25
Mean of outliers high0.64
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations16
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.03
Quartile 30.09
Maximum0.66
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.29
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high0.66
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.65
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.33
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.93
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.29
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.39
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-384516832
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)2763
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.03
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.03
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.04
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.04
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.13
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.03
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.03
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.04
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.10
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.27
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 2814 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
VIXY long88Mar 28, 2013Apr 1, 2013($288)
XIV short1200Mar 28, 2013Apr 1, 2013($656)
NSM short700Mar 28, 2013Apr 1, 2013($138)
MCP short4100Mar 28, 2013Apr 1, 2013($5)
ARNA short3200Mar 28, 2013Apr 1, 2013($389)
AGO long1300Mar 28, 2013Apr 1, 2013$541
SSYS long400Mar 27, 2013Apr 1, 2013$356
INCY long1100Mar 27, 2013Apr 1, 2013$1,392
CIEN long1500Mar 27, 2013Apr 1, 2013$235
VIXY short88Mar 27, 2013Mar 28, 2013($200)
XIV long1200Mar 27, 2013Mar 28, 2013($269)
NSM long700Mar 27, 2013Mar 28, 2013$709
MCP long4100Mar 27, 2013Mar 28, 2013($538)
ARNA long3200Mar 28, 2013Mar 28, 2013($357)
ARNA short3200Mar 26, 2013Mar 28, 2013$27
AGO short1300Mar 22, 2013Mar 28, 2013$1,022
XIV short1200Mar 27, 2013Mar 27, 2013($461)
VIXY long88Mar 27, 2013Mar 27, 2013($376)
XIV long1200Mar 26, 2013Mar 27, 2013($557)
VIXY short88Mar 26, 2013Mar 27, 2013($420)
SSYS short400Mar 22, 2013Mar 27, 2013$208
INCY short1100Mar 22, 2013Mar 27, 2013$787
NSM short700Mar 27, 2013Mar 27, 2013($1,027)
CIEN short1500Mar 27, 2013Mar 27, 2013($380)
CIEN long1500Mar 25, 2013Mar 27, 2013($140)
NSM long700Mar 25, 2013Mar 27, 2013$569
XIV short1200Mar 25, 2013Mar 26, 2013($1,421)
VIXY long88Mar 25, 2013Mar 26, 2013($1,168)
VIXY short88Mar 25, 2013Mar 25, 2013($1,124)
XIV long1200Mar 25, 2013Mar 25, 2013($1,349)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.