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Boffo

Futures · Started Jun 2008

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
3.0%
Max Drawdown
32.1%
Trades
802
Win Trades
53.0%
Profit Factor
1.30
Win Months
1.4%

About this strategy

Boffo is a discretionary trading system. Trades are entered manually on my end.
Autotrading is recommended on the subscriber's end.
Minimum capital required is $20k at 1/10th scaling. However, at this starting capital,
you may find it necessary to re-fund the acct. if the system experiences enough of drawdown
just as you start so that you maintain the ability to open 4 lots.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
200865.0-16.718.612.2-0.2-0.2-0.281.4
20090.0-5.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.00.00.0-5.7
20100.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20110.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20120.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began6/11/2008
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age222 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades802
# Profitable425
% Profitable53.0%
Avg trade duration38.4 minutes
Max peak-to-valley drawdown32.1%
drawdown periodJuly 01, 2008 - Aug 07, 2008
Annual Return (Compounded)3.0%
Avg win$2,085
Avg loss$1,791

Ratios

W:L ratio1.31
Sharpe Ratio0.11
Sortino Ratio0.21
Calmar Ratio0.33

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.00
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life471.9%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-402.3%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)3.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)6.4%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity6.8%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,791
Avg Win$2,085
# Winners425
Sum Trade PL (losers)$675,393
Sum Trade PL (winners)$886,204
Num Months Winners5
# Losers377
% Winners53.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table220

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)38.42
Avg Position Time (hrs)0.64
Avg Trade Length0
Last Trade Ago6571

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0
Treynor Index10.99

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades13.14
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.13
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats26.16
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats31.23
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.69
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.34
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.07

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.25
SD0.39
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.63
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.62
df62
t1.45
p0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.49
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.24
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.49
Sortino ratio24.72
Upside Potential Ratio25.34
Upside part of mean0.25
Downside part of mean-0.01
Upside SD0.39
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms60
N negative terms3
N of observations63
Mean of predictor0.36
Mean of criterion0.25
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.39
Covariance-0.02
r-0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.20
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.32
Mean Square Error0.15
DF error61
t(b)-1.30
p(b)0.90
t(a)1.79
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.50
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.67
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.24
Jensen alpha (a)0.32
Mean0.19
SD0.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.67
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.66
df62
t1.53
p0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.53
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.20
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.52
Sortino ratio19.32
Upside Potential Ratio19.94
Upside part of mean0.20
Downside part of mean-0.01
Upside SD0.29
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms60
N negative terms3
N of observations63
Mean of predictor0.31
Mean of criterion0.19
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion0.29
Covariance-0.02
r-0.18
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.17
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.25
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error61
t(b)-1.44
p(b)0.92
t(a)1.89
p(a)0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.51
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.12
Jensen alpha (a)0.25
VaR(95%)0.11
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.14
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
Mean0.72
SD1.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.60
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.60
df1381
t1.38
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.45
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.25
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.45
Sortino ratio1.48
Upside Potential Ratio3.07
Upside part of mean1.50
Downside part of mean-0.78
Upside SD1.10
Downside SD0.49
N nonnegative terms1328
N negative terms54
N of observations1382
Mean of predictor0.53
Mean of criterion0.72
SD of predictor0.64
SD of criterion1.20
Covariance-0.33
r-0.43
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.81
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.15
Mean Square Error1.18
DF error1380
t(b)-17.66
p(b)0.71
t(a)2.42
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.90
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.72
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.08
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.89
Jensen alpha (a)1.15
Mean0.19
SD1.00
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.19
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.19
df1381
t0.44
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.66
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.05
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.66
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.05
Sortino ratio0.28
Upside Potential Ratio1.68
Upside part of mean1.16
Downside part of mean-0.97
Upside SD0.72
Downside SD0.69
N nonnegative terms1328
N negative terms54
N of observations1382
Mean of predictor0.33
Mean of criterion0.19
SD of predictor0.63
SD of criterion1.00
Covariance-0.31
r-0.49
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.79
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.45
Mean Square Error0.76
DF error1380
t(b)-21.16
p(b)0.75
t(a)1.20
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.86
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.71
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.20
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.25
Jensen alpha (a)0.45
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor2.02
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.75
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.74
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.74
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations63
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.84
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.08
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.22
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-935926.25
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-7.95
VaR(95%) (regression method)-0.07
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations1382
Minimum0.37
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum2.84
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low54
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.92
Number of outliers high64
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.12
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-5.86
VaR(95%) (moments method)-0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.03
Quartile 10.03
Median0.03
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.03
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations19
Minimum0.03
Quartile 10.06
Median0.11
Quartile 30.28
Maximum0.65
Mean of quarter 10.03
Mean of quarter 20.10
Mean of quarter 30.18
Mean of quarter 40.47
Inter Quartile Range0.21
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high0.63
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.03
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.51
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.64
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.26
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.47
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.61
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-393809568
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)37
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.34
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.21
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)6.67
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.48
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.34
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.21
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.33
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.46
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.79
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 894 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
YM Z8short20Sep 15, 2008Sep 16, 2008$26,840
ES Z8short10Sep 15, 2008Sep 15, 2008$5,855
QM X8short10Sep 15, 2008Sep 15, 2008$18,670
DX Z8long10Sep 15, 2008Sep 15, 2008($380)
EMD Z8long10Sep 12, 2008Sep 14, 2008($19,780)
QM X8short10Sep 12, 2008Sep 14, 2008$3,292
EMD Z8short10Sep 12, 2008Sep 12, 2008($2,180)
YM Z8short10Sep 11, 2008Sep 12, 2008($14,730)
ER2 U8short10Sep 12, 2008Sep 12, 2008$1,320
ER2 U8long10Sep 12, 2008Sep 12, 2008($3,380)
ES Z8long10Sep 12, 2008Sep 12, 2008($2,080)
ER2 U8short10Sep 12, 2008Sep 12, 2008($80)
ER2 U8short10Sep 12, 2008Sep 12, 2008$1,920
ZG Z8long10Sep 11, 2008Sep 12, 2008$3,170
ER2 U8long10Sep 11, 2008Sep 12, 2008$220
YM U8short10Sep 11, 2008Sep 11, 2008$1,480
YM U8short10Sep 11, 2008Sep 11, 2008($1,030)
EMD U8short10Sep 10, 2008Sep 10, 2008$320
ES U8short10Sep 10, 2008Sep 10, 2008$920
ES U8short10Sep 10, 2008Sep 10, 2008$1,420
ES U8short10Sep 9, 2008Sep 9, 2008$1,045
ER2 U8short10Sep 9, 2008Sep 9, 2008($909)
EMD U8short10Sep 9, 2008Sep 9, 2008$220
ER2 U8short10Sep 9, 2008Sep 9, 2008$1,120
ES U8short10Sep 9, 2008Sep 9, 2008$1,420
ES U8short10Sep 5, 2008Sep 5, 2008($5,830)
EMD U8short10Sep 5, 2008Sep 5, 2008($10,880)
EMD U8short10Sep 5, 2008Sep 5, 2008$620
YM U8short10Sep 5, 2008Sep 5, 2008$305
YM U8short10Sep 5, 2008Sep 5, 2008($1,630)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.