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Zero

Stocks · Started Oct 2008

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
3.9%
Max Drawdown
29.0%
Trades
4250
Win Trades
54.5%
Profit Factor
1.30
Win Months
14.0%

About this strategy

AS OF MAR. 1ST, 2013 'ZERO' HAS BEEN REPLACED BY ITS YOUNGER, NIMBLER INTRADAY SUCCESSOR: http://www.collective2.com/cgi-perl/system69547192.



Requirements to trade ZERO:




-IB or equal commission structure brokerage account


-TWS build 906.2 or higher with CSV input capability


-15K minimum trading capital (30K+ preferred to mitigate friction costs)


-5 minutes per day of personal account oversight between 9:25-9:30AM EST



The C2 equity curve reflects a 'Flat Rate' IB commissions rate which is
not
recommended in order to realize the full extent of profits trading this system. Additionally, the percentage of C2 capital allocated to each position takes into account the deduction of commissions from the Vendor's real-life portfolio based on a �Cost Plus� Interactive Brokers commission structure. Real trading results based on a �Cost Plus� commission structure at IB fall in between the upper and lower C2 hypothetical Zero equity curve results.


The approximate monthly cost associated with trading ZERO based on current C2 capital will be ~200.00 USD:

C2 Subscription Fee: 88.00 USD (pay per profitable month, ~75% profitable months per year)
Monthly Commissions: 125.00 USD (based on ~5.4 trades per day assuming a 'Cost Plus' commission structure at IB).



General Description:



ZERO is a proprietary Excel-based EOD (End-of-Day) mechanical trading system that relies on principles of regression analysis to identify potential price aberrations in Naz-100 equities which historically precede short-term price increases with ~55% probability. The system incorporates a probabilistic algorithm which generates a daily basket of limit entry orders outside of market hours at ~8:30AM EST.



System Concept:



ZERO stands for the '0' filter, randomized nature of the algorithm that drives this trading system. Most systems rely on static conditionals that filter historical data for TA patterns which
have
preceded profitable price movements. The more specific and numerous that these filters are, the more likely that they will not correlate with future price movements due to their inflexibility to changing trends in the ever-evolving financial marketplace. ZERO does not rely on filters nor models to choose trades. It relies on basic supply/demand mechanisms that are inherent to the markets and assumes that all equities in its trading basket have an equal likelihood of profitability. Positions are chosen by future, not historical market data.



Money Management:



The system allocates no more than 9% of trading capital per position and assumes a theoretical maximum of 10 positions. Account size is recommended to be 2x total C2 equity in order to absorb 'simultaneous fills' which in extremely volatile market conditions can increase the total number of trades to as many as 2x the intended maximum. This can be avoided with the selection of 'overfill protection' in IB TWS settings. IRA accounts will automatically limit position count to 1x margin requirements. Typical capital exposure ranges between 35-55%. All positions are held for 24hrs or less. There are no intraday trades. Stoplosses are not employed given that hold-time is so short.



Trading/Maintaining ZERO:



Trading and maintenance instructions will be provided upon subscription. It is important to understand that due to the 'randomized' logic nature of ZERO, there will occasionally be days when positions in a real account will differ from those in C2.



C2 Results:



C2 results mirror a live account with ~95% accuracy due to limitations in fill simulation with respect to position management methodology. Erroneous fills are generally corrected within 24hrs. Long term performance of a live account with equivalent position sizing to C2 should have an equal probability of performing slightly better or worse.



General Notes:



*C2 tracking began 10/31/08
*APD ratio--the 'dip-buy' nature of ZERO will always render a low APD even when 'hold and hope' is relatively low given its fixed position hold-time of 24hrs max. Average profit vs. loss is a more a telling metric from a bottomline perspective. In the interest of analyzing this further, please review individual trades, whose 'Drawdown and Risk' are almost exclusively classified as 'Low'.



Disclaimer:



Past results are not indicative of future results and neither Vendor nor C2 is responsible for unfavorable performance deviations. Do not subscribe to this system if you do not intend to dedicate the specified time for manual account maintenance. It is recommended for a serious subscriber to papertrade ZERO for at least two weeks in a virtual IB account to become familiar with its idiosyncrasies before trading real money. It should be known that all fills in a virtual account will be similar but not the same as fills in a real account. Vendor does not recommend autotrading of ZERO and is not responsible for syncing problems related to Tradebullet nor Trader68.
This system is only available to individuals through C2.



Please feel free to private message me with inquiries.





































































































































































Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2008-0.4-10.716.63.6
2009-1.31.813.913.94.59.49.41.11.7-4.85.02.872.4
2010-2.32.2-0.2-2.43.1-3.26.5-3.92.66.71.12.512.6
20111.2-1.31.51.30.3-1.2-0.7-5.1-8.27.21.24.1-0.6
20126.12.9-3.0-5.9-3.2-2.9-0.23.3-1.4-1.9-0.4-0.3-7.4
20139.4-0.70.7-0.4-0.5-0.4-0.4-0.60.00.00.00.06.8
20140.0-0.00.00.00.0-0.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.0-0.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.0-0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began10/23/2008
Suggested Minimum Capital$15,000
Age218 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades4250
# Profitable2316
% Profitable54.5%
Avg trade duration1.4 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown29.0%
drawdown periodOct 23, 2008 - Nov 21, 2008
Annual Return (Compounded)3.9%
Avg win$65
Avg loss$59

Ratios

W:L ratio1.32
Sharpe Ratio0.21
Sortino Ratio0.30
Calmar Ratio0.08

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.27
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life740.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-645.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)3.9%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)7.1%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity14.1%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$59
Avg Win$65
# Winners2316
Sum Trade PL (losers)$114,984
Sum Trade PL (winners)$151,143
Num Months Winners33
# Losers1934
% Winners54.5%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct292

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table216

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)1954.25
Avg Position Time (hrs)32.57
Avg Trade Length1.40
Last Trade Ago4945

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.14
Treynor Index0.04

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades44.56
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.57
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats60.54
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats46.49
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.53
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.52
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.02

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.11
SD0.28
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.40
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.39
df90
t1.09
p0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.11
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.32
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.11
Sortino ratio0.47
Upside Potential Ratio0.96
Upside part of mean0.22
Downside part of mean-0.11
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.23
N nonnegative terms73
N negative terms18
N of observations91
Mean of predictor0.28
Mean of criterion0.11
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.28
Covariance0.03
r0.50
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.56
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.05
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error89
t(b)5.39
p(b)0
t(a)-0.51
p(a)0.70
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.77
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.14
Treynor index (mean / b)0.20
Jensen alpha (a)-0.05
Mean0.05
SD0.39
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.13
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.12
df90
t0.35
p0.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.59
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.84
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.59
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.84
Sortino ratio0.14
Upside Potential Ratio0.58
Upside part of mean0.21
Downside part of mean-0.16
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.37
N nonnegative terms73
N negative terms18
N of observations91
Mean of predictor0.25
Mean of criterion0.05
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.39
Covariance0.06
r0.58
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.94
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.18
Mean Square Error0.10
DF error89
t(b)6.77
p(b)0
t(a)-1.52
p(a)0.93
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.67
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.06
Treynor index (mean / b)0.05
Jensen alpha (a)-0.18
VaR(95%)0.17
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.21
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean0.14
SD0.38
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.37
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.37
df1990
t1.01
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.08
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.35
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.08
Sortino ratio0.47
Upside Potential Ratio2.87
Upside part of mean0.84
Downside part of mean-0.70
Upside SD0.24
Downside SD0.29
N nonnegative terms1516
N negative terms475
N of observations1991
Mean of predictor0.33
Mean of criterion0.14
SD of predictor0.38
SD of criterion0.38
Covariance0.06
r0.44
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.44
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error0.12
DF error1989
t(b)22.13
p(b)0.23
t(a)-0.04
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.24
Treynor index (mean / b)0.31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
Mean0.05
SD0.45
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.11
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.11
df1990
t0.30
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.60
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.82
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.60
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.82
Sortino ratio0.13
Upside Potential Ratio2.07
Upside part of mean0.82
Downside part of mean-0.77
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.39
N nonnegative terms1516
N negative terms475
N of observations1991
Mean of predictor0.25
Mean of criterion0.05
SD of predictor0.38
SD of criterion0.45
Covariance0.07
r0.43
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.51
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.08
Mean Square Error0.17
DF error1989
t(b)21.20
p(b)0.24
t(a)-0.53
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.21
Treynor index (mean / b)0.10
Jensen alpha (a)-0.08
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.36
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.52
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.23
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.52
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations91
Minimum0.37
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.26
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.07
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.66
Number of outliers high8
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.12
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.15
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.24
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations1991
Minimum0.40
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.27
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low325
Percentage of outliers low0.16
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high356
Percentage of outliers high0.18
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.19
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.85
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations6
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.05
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.63
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.07
Mean of quarter 40.35
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.63
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations54
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.66
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.09
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high0.17
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.87
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.59
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.11
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-385928320
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)29
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.06
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.05
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.08
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.14
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.25
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.06
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.05
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.08
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.58
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.91
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 1837 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
ISRG long9Feb 28, 2013Mar 1, 2013$33
SHLD long104Feb 28, 2013Mar 1, 2013($79)
EXPD long123Feb 26, 2013Feb 27, 2013($151)
APOL long276Feb 26, 2013Feb 27, 2013$30
FFIV long49Feb 25, 2013Feb 26, 2013($143)
APOL long265Feb 25, 2013Feb 26, 2013($85)
NTAP long138Feb 21, 2013Feb 22, 2013$78
WCRX long344Feb 21, 2013Feb 22, 2013$96
AVGO long142Feb 21, 2013Feb 22, 2013$92
SPLS long337Feb 20, 2013Feb 21, 2013($172)
GRMN long126Feb 20, 2013Feb 21, 2013($33)
LIFE long78Feb 20, 2013Feb 21, 2013($81)
ISRG long8Feb 20, 2013Feb 21, 2013($61)
GOLD long58Feb 20, 2013Feb 21, 2013($53)
WYNN long40Feb 19, 2013Feb 20, 2013$83
MNST long96Feb 19, 2013Feb 20, 2013$56
ALXN long57Feb 19, 2013Feb 20, 2013$120
GOLD long55Feb 15, 2013Feb 19, 2013($4)
NTAP long137Feb 14, 2013Feb 15, 2013$212
WFM long102Feb 14, 2013Feb 15, 2013($80)
DTV long95Feb 14, 2013Feb 15, 2013($14)
ALXN long53Feb 14, 2013Feb 15, 2013($10)
FOSL long44Feb 13, 2013Feb 14, 2013($77)
GMCR long108Feb 11, 2013Feb 12, 2013($17)
MU long606Feb 7, 2013Feb 8, 2013$86
GMCR long99Feb 7, 2013Feb 8, 2013$193
CTRP long222Feb 7, 2013Feb 8, 2013$123
VMED long105Feb 6, 2013Feb 7, 2013$103
BIDU long45Feb 5, 2013Feb 6, 2013($98)
DELL long351Feb 4, 2013Feb 5, 2013$88

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.