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Daytrade Futures

Futures · Started Oct 2008

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
33
Win Trades
97.0%
Profit Factor
0.50
Win Months
0.5%

About this strategy

day trade. 100% scaling autotrade only.

high risk, high reward.

max 20 subscribers. limited space remaining..

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2008183.4-159.1-4.4-274.9
2009-4.2-4.0-3.9-1.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.10.00.0
20100.00.00.00.00.0-0.1-0.1-0.10.0-0.00.0-0.0
20110.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20120.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.0-0.40.00.00.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.00.0-0.40.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began10/7/2008
Suggested Minimum Capital$4,774
Age218 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades33
# Profitable32
% Profitable97.0%
Avg trade duration1.0 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodOct 31, 2008 - April 09, 2009
Annual Return (Compounded)0.0%
Avg win$406
Avg loss$24,360

Ratios

W:L ratio0.53
Sharpe Ratio-1.55
Sortino Ratio-1.58
Calmar Ratio0

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.09
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life666.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-978.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$24,360
Avg Win$406
# Winners32
Sum Trade PL (losers)$24,360
Sum Trade PL (winners)$12,982
Num Months Winners1
# Losers1
% Winners97.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table2

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)61.45
Avg Position Time (hrs)1.02
Avg Trade Length0
Last Trade Ago6521

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.27
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.12
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.12
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-2.75
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.35
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats5.25
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats37.65
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades2.01
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.36

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean1904.03
SD4328.37
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.44
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.43
df61
t1.00
p0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.30
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.43
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.30
Sortino ratio4328.36
Upside Potential Ratio4328.80
Upside part of mean1904.23
Downside part of mean-0.19
Upside SD4328.36
Downside SD0.44
N nonnegative terms61
N negative terms1
N of observations62
Mean of predictor0.44
Mean of criterion1904.03
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion4328.37
Covariance-117.82
r-0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1277.45
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)2463.39
Mean Square Error18894010
DF error60
t(b)-0.70
p(b)0.76
t(a)1.19
p(a)0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-4943.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2388.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1684.89
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha6611.66
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.49
Jensen alpha (a)2463.39
Mean0
SD5.77
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df61
t0
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.86
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.86
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.86
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.86
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0.44
Upside part of mean1.78
Downside part of mean-1.78
Upside SD4.04
Downside SD4.04
N nonnegative terms61
N negative terms1
N of observations62
Mean of predictor0.39
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion5.77
Covariance0.13
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.49
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.58
Mean Square Error33.62
DF error60
t(b)0.58
p(b)0.28
t(a)-0.21
p(a)0.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-3.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta6.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-6.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha4.90
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)-0.58
VaR(95%)0.94
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.96
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
Mean10697.34
SD12442.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.86
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.86
df1365
t1.96
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.72
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.00
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.72
Sortino ratio10788.01
Upside Potential Ratio10789.20
Upside part of mean10698.52
Downside part of mean-1.18
Upside SD12455.10
Downside SD0.99
N nonnegative terms1357
N negative terms9
N of observations1366
Mean of predictor0.50
Mean of criterion10697.34
SD of predictor0.43
SD of criterion12442.11
Covariance714.66
r0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)3837.70
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)8777.35
Mean Square Error152174960
DF error1364
t(b)4.96
p(b)0.43
t(a)1.62
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2319.86
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta5355.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1847.98
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha19402.68
Treynor index (mean / b)2.79
Jensen alpha (a)8777.35
Mean0
SD11.70
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df1365
t0
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.86
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.86
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.86
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.86
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0.94
Upside part of mean7.73
Downside part of mean-7.73
Upside SD8.36
Downside SD8.19
N nonnegative terms1357
N negative terms9
N of observations1366
Mean of predictor0.41
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.44
SD of criterion11.70
Covariance1.08
r0.21
b (slope, estimate of beta)5.63
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-2.28
Mean Square Error130.92
DF error1364
t(b)7.97
p(b)0.39
t(a)-0.45
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta4.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta7.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-12.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha7.56
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)-2.28
VaR(95%)0.70
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.77
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.27
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.50
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.14
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.50
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.70
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations62
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum9839.50
Mean of quarter 10.94
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 4615.91
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.00
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high9839.50
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations1366
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum16264
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 4164.10
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low9
Percentage of outliers low0.01
Mean of outliers low0.32
Number of outliers high16
Percentage of outliers high0.01
Mean of outliers high3487.21
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-6.60
VaR(95%) (regression method)-284337.69
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum1.00
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations1
Minimum1.00
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-395452576
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)160
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.2%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 27 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
ES Z8long11Nov 5, 2008Nov 6, 2008($24,448)
ES Z8long4Nov 4, 2008Nov 4, 2008$668
ES Z8short5Nov 3, 2008Nov 3, 2008$900
ES Z8long3Oct 31, 2008Oct 31, 2008$314
ES Z8long3Oct 31, 2008Oct 31, 2008$176
ES Z8long3Oct 30, 2008Oct 30, 2008$276
ES Z8long2.387000084Oct 29, 2008Oct 29, 2008$458
ES Z8long2.387000084Oct 28, 2008Oct 28, 2008$220
ES Z8long2.387000084Oct 28, 2008Oct 28, 2008$608
ES Z8long1.909000039Oct 27, 2008Oct 27, 2008$295
ES Z8long1.909000039Oct 27, 2008Oct 27, 2008$271
ES Z8long1.909000039Oct 27, 2008Oct 27, 2008$271
ES Z8long1.909000039Oct 27, 2008Oct 27, 2008$176
ES Z8long1.909000039Oct 24, 2008Oct 24, 2008$271
ES Z8long1.909000039Oct 24, 2008Oct 24, 2008$247
ES Z8long1.909000039Oct 23, 2008Oct 23, 2008$200
ES Z8long4.774000168Oct 23, 2008Oct 23, 2008$1,645
ES Z8long1.909000039Oct 22, 2008Oct 22, 2008$271
ES Z8long1.909000039Oct 22, 2008Oct 22, 2008$295
ES Z8long1.909000039Oct 21, 2008Oct 21, 2008$200
ES Z8long1.909000039Oct 21, 2008Oct 21, 2008$271
ES Z8long1.909000039Oct 21, 2008Oct 21, 2008$271
ES Z8long3.819000006Oct 20, 2008Oct 20, 2008$1,198
ES Z8long4.296000004Oct 17, 2008Oct 17, 2008$589
ES Z8long3.342000008Oct 16, 2008Oct 16, 2008$289
ES Z8long4.296000004Oct 16, 2008Oct 16, 2008$306
ES Z8long1.432000041Oct 15, 2008Oct 15, 2008$204
ES Z8long1.432000041Oct 13, 2008Oct 13, 2008$168
ES Z8long1.432000041Oct 9, 2008Oct 9, 2008$240
ES Z8long1.432000041Oct 8, 2008Oct 8, 2008$240

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.