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ShadowBanker

Forex · Started Oct 2008

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
517
Win Trades
87.2%
Profit Factor
0.90
Win Months
18.1%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
200819.530.68.469.2
2009-45.079.47.328.514.314.711.6-1.347.9-40.8-10.140.4117.0
201021.210.428.718.58.327.1-5.229.117.712.6-19.724.5355.7
201112.44.1-21.3-33.134.869.7-2.735.813.7-30.282.4-20.5114.2
201234.3-2.75.526.022.45.96.3-5.0-29.2-22.18.9-56.4-40.5
2013-79.3487.571.5-53.761.5-10.3-46.58.3-92.1-531.20.00.0-127.7
20140.00.00.00.00.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0
2015-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.10.00.0-0.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began10/21/2008
Suggested Minimum Capital$28,502
Age218 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades517
# Profitable451
% Profitable87.2%
Avg trade duration3.0 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodOct 31, 2008 - Oct 02, 2013
Annual Return (Compounded)0.0%
Avg win$6,010
Avg loss$43,258

Ratios

W:L ratio0.95
Sharpe Ratio0.10
Sortino Ratio0.11
Calmar Ratio-0.80

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.06
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life699.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-1397.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$43,258
Avg Win$6,010
# Winners451
Sum Trade PL (losers)$2,855,031
Sum Trade PL (winners)$2,710,649
Num Months Winners39
# Losers66
% Winners87.2%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table61

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)4286.60
Avg Position Time (hrs)71.44
Avg Trade Length3
Last Trade Ago4730

Regression

Alpha0
Beta-0.42
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.04
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.03
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.03
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.04
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-37.51
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.45
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats82.96
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats29.35
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.77
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.03
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.03

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.46
SD0.97
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.47
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.47
df77
t1.20
p0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.24
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.31
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.24
Sortino ratio0.68
Upside Potential Ratio1.86
Upside part of mean1.24
Downside part of mean-0.78
Upside SD0.71
Downside SD0.67
N nonnegative terms62
N negative terms16
N of observations78
Mean of predictor0.34
Mean of criterion0.46
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.97
Covariance-0.02
r-0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.29
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.55
Mean Square Error0.95
DF error76
t(b)-0.65
p(b)0.74
t(a)1.35
p(a)0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.37
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.60
Jensen alpha (a)0.55
Mean-1.63
SD4.62
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.35
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.35
df77
t-0.90
p0.81
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.42
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.12
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.42
Sortino ratio-0.36
Upside Potential Ratio0.23
Upside part of mean1.05
Downside part of mean-2.68
Upside SD0.57
Downside SD4.58
N nonnegative terms62
N negative terms16
N of observations78
Mean of predictor0.31
Mean of criterion-1.63
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion4.62
Covariance-0.10
r-0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.72
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.09
Mean Square Error21.44
DF error76
t(b)-0.78
p(b)0.78
t(a)-0.56
p(a)0.71
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-6.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.66
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-4.96
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.77
Treynor index (mean / b)0.95
Jensen alpha (a)-1.09
VaR(95%)0.90
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.94
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.19
Mean1.21
SD1.62
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.75
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.75
df1718
t1.91
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.51
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.02
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.51
Sortino ratio1.17
Upside Potential Ratio5.95
Upside part of mean6.17
Downside part of mean-4.96
Upside SD1.25
Downside SD1.04
N nonnegative terms1241
N negative terms478
N of observations1719
Mean of predictor0.40
Mean of criterion1.21
SD of predictor0.39
SD of criterion1.62
Covariance-0.02
r-0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.26
Mean Square Error2.63
DF error1717
t(b)-1.29
p(b)0.52
t(a)1.99
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.50
Treynor index (mean / b)-9.29
Jensen alpha (a)1.26
Mean-1.61
SD4.74
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.34
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.34
df1718
t-0.87
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.43
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.11
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.43
Sortino ratio-0.35
Upside Potential Ratio1.20
Upside part of mean5.57
Downside part of mean-7.18
Upside SD1.03
Downside SD4.63
N nonnegative terms1241
N negative terms478
N of observations1719
Mean of predictor0.32
Mean of criterion-1.61
SD of predictor0.38
SD of criterion4.74
Covariance-0.02
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.11
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.58
Mean Square Error22.47
DF error1717
t(b)-0.35
p(b)0.51
t(a)-0.85
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-5.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.06
Treynor index (mean / b)15.32
Jensen alpha (a)-1.58
VaR(95%)0.39
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.45
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.25
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.49
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.13
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.49
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations78
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.16
Maximum2.01
Mean of quarter 10.75
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.06
Mean of quarter 41.34
Inter Quartile Range0.16
Number outliers low6
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.37
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.62
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.07
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.24
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.43
Number of observations1719
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum2.19
Mean of quarter 10.92
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.09
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low277
Percentage of outliers low0.16
Mean of outliers low0.89
Number of outliers high291
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high1.13
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.86
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.28
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.42
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.15
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations9
Minimum0.02
Quartile 10.16
Median0.20
Quartile 30.50
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 10.07
Mean of quarter 20.19
Mean of quarter 30.36
Mean of quarter 40.78
Inter Quartile Range0.34
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.06
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.81
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.99
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.90
VaR(95%) (regression method)1.34
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations106
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.07
Quartile 30.17
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.04
Mean of quarter 30.10
Mean of quarter 40.33
Inter Quartile Range0.14
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high0.66
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.20
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.35
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.52
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.11
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.35
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.49
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-442865440
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)1797
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.8%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.15
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.80
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.80
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.03
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.86
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.15
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.80
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.80
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-2.43
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.76
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 1209 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
EUR/USD short30000Aug 3, 2012Oct 2, 2013($2,757,911)
EUR/USD short6000Aug 2, 2012Aug 2, 2012$120,930
EUR/USD short3000Jul 27, 2012Jul 27, 2012$20,970
EUR/USD short6000Jul 2, 2012Jul 5, 2012$127,470
EUR/USD short3000Jun 20, 2012Jun 21, 2012$13,920
EUR/USD short12000Jun 12, 2012Jun 18, 2012$69,630
EUR/USD short8000Jun 1, 2012Jun 11, 2012$47,700
EUR/USD short3000May 28, 2012May 28, 2012$16,530
EUR/USD short8000May 17, 2012May 22, 2012$42,910
EUR/USD short3000May 17, 2012May 17, 2012$9,120
EUR/USD short2000May 16, 2012May 16, 2012$5,020
EUR/USD short1000May 16, 2012May 16, 2012$2,100
EUR/USD short1000May 15, 2012May 15, 2012$1,330
EUR/USD short1000May 14, 2012May 15, 2012$3,990
EUR/USD short3000May 14, 2012May 14, 2012$17,610
EUR/USD short6000May 9, 2012May 14, 2012$36,360
EUR/USD short5000May 7, 2012May 9, 2012$45,940
EUR/USD short9000Apr 16, 2012May 6, 2012$124,060
EUR/USD short9000Apr 5, 2012Apr 16, 2012$59,430
EUR/USD short13000Apr 4, 2012Apr 5, 2012$89,580
EUR/USD short15000Mar 15, 2012Apr 4, 2012$113,330
EUR/USD short3000Mar 14, 2012Mar 15, 2012$9,990
EUR/USD short3000Mar 13, 2012Mar 14, 2012$9,570
EUR/USD short12000Mar 9, 2012Mar 13, 2012$52,980
EUR/USD short12000Feb 15, 2012Mar 9, 2012$143,580
EUR/USD short5000Jan 27, 2012Feb 15, 2012$79,740
EUR/USD long11000Nov 30, 2011Jan 27, 2012$40,880
GBP/USD long2000Nov 29, 2011Nov 30, 2011$21,220
GBP/USD long2000Nov 28, 2011Nov 29, 2011$25,360
GBP/JPY long2000Nov 28, 2011Nov 28, 2011($4)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.