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Reddy FX

Forex · Started Nov 2008

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-0.4%
Max Drawdown
47.5%
Trades
369
Win Trades
51.2%
Profit Factor
1
Win Months
1.9%

About this strategy

To answer many questions about my system I made it free now.
Explore & experience my System without spending a penny
I will notify well in advance on resumption of paid service

MY Trading Philosophy
1. Have Well defined trading strategy
2. Stick to the system and overcome Fear & Greed
3. Strict Money Management rules, not gambling the Forex Market

Trading Strategy is based on Price action & Market timing
+ Get, Set & Forget trading
+ Trades are always entered with Entry (Stop Orders), Stop Loss & Target
+ Signals valid till end of day unless other wise specified
+ Once trade is opened, I neither watch the trade & nor change the Stop or Target
+ Trade is either hit the Target or Stop, nothing is changed once the trade is live
+ Enters trade only on breakout, only Stop orders used for Entry
+ Ample time for entering trades , signals sent at least 30 Minutes before execution
+ Trade about 15+ pairs including Majors, Minors & Crosses

Strict Money Management rules are followed
+ Each trade is risked for 1% of capital & Reward is 1%, Strictly 1:1 Risk/Reward Ratio
+ Lot size chosen which closely matches the 1% of Captial
+ At least $10000 capital is required, If not increase the Risk per trade to 2-3%.
+ Total trade expected in a month is about 50 - 100
+ With Moderate Win of 60% would yield 10 to 20% ROI per month















Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
200815.220.839.1
20092.3-38.1-0.98.0-0.00.00.00.0-0.4-0.00.00.0-32.5
20100.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
2011-0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.0
20120.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.00.00.00.0-0.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began11/2/2008
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age217 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades369
# Profitable189
% Profitable51.2%
Avg trade duration1.2 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown47.5%
drawdown periodFeb 02, 2009 - Feb 26, 2009
Annual Return (Compounded)-0.4%
Avg win$1,326
Avg loss$1,397

Ratios

W:L ratio1
Sharpe Ratio-0.21
Sortino Ratio-0.30
Calmar Ratio0.02

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.00
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life688.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-694.9%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-0.4%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity61.5%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,396
Avg Win$1,326
# Winners189
Sum Trade PL (losers)$251,370
Sum Trade PL (winners)$250,607
Num Months Winners6
# Losers180
% Winners51.2%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table215

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)1727.67
Avg Position Time (hrs)28.79
Avg Trade Length1.20
Last Trade Ago6360

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta0
Treynor Index-7.71

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-18.36
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.89
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats54.97
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats17.17
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.44
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.04
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.05

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.03
SD0.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.16
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.16
df70
t0.38
p0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.65
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.96
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.65
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.96
Sortino ratio0.21
Upside Potential Ratio0.63
Upside part of mean0.09
Downside part of mean-0.06
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms66
N negative terms5
N of observations71
Mean of predictor0.40
Mean of criterion0.03
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.20
Covariance0.01
r0.25
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.19
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.04
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error69
t(b)2.11
p(b)0.02
t(a)-0.48
p(a)0.68
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.36
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.13
Treynor index (mean / b)0.17
Jensen alpha (a)-0.04
Mean0.01
SD0.22
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.04
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.04
df70
t0.10
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.76
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.85
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.77
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.85
Sortino ratio0.05
Upside Potential Ratio0.46
Upside part of mean0.09
Downside part of mean-0.08
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms66
N negative terms5
N of observations71
Mean of predictor0.36
Mean of criterion0.01
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.22
Covariance0.02
r0.32
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.28
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.09
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error69
t(b)2.84
p(b)0.00
t(a)-0.96
p(a)0.83
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.10
Treynor index (mean / b)0.03
Jensen alpha (a)-0.09
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.09
SD0.39
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.22
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.22
df1553
t0.54
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.58
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.03
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.58
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.03
Sortino ratio0.33
Upside Potential Ratio2.22
Upside part of mean0.59
Downside part of mean-0.50
Upside SD0.29
Downside SD0.26
N nonnegative terms1463
N negative terms91
N of observations1554
Mean of predictor0.43
Mean of criterion0.09
SD of predictor0.39
SD of criterion0.39
Covariance0.04
r0.26
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.26
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0.14
DF error1552
t(b)10.62
p(b)0.37
t(a)-0.17
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.28
Treynor index (mean / b)0.33
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
Mean0.01
SD0.40
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.02
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.02
df1553
t0.06
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.78
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.83
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.78
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.83
Sortino ratio0.03
Upside Potential Ratio1.81
Upside part of mean0.55
Downside part of mean-0.54
Upside SD0.26
Downside SD0.30
N nonnegative terms1463
N negative terms91
N of observations1554
Mean of predictor0.36
Mean of criterion0.01
SD of predictor0.39
SD of criterion0.40
Covariance0.04
r0.26
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.26
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.08
Mean Square Error0.15
DF error1552
t(b)10.45
p(b)0.37
t(a)-0.53
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.23
Treynor index (mean / b)0.03
Jensen alpha (a)-0.08
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.13
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.47
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.02
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.47
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations71
Minimum0.64
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.25
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low5
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.93
Number of outliers high8
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.07
Extreme Value Index (moments method)2.89
VaR(95%) (moments method)-0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)5.53
VaR(95%) (regression method)-0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations1554
Minimum0.69
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.42
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low91
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high84
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.38
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.11
VaR(95%) (regression method)-0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.36
Quartile 10.36
Median0.36
Quartile 30.36
Maximum0.36
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations9
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.05
Median0.07
Quartile 30.11
Maximum0.40
Mean of quarter 10.04
Mean of quarter 20.07
Mean of quarter 30.09
Mean of quarter 40.26
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high0.40
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.56
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.29
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.68
Extreme Value Index (regression method)4.03
VaR(95%) (regression method)1.27
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-398357728
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)24
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.01
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.01
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.03
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.07
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.01
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.01
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.02
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.04
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.18
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 251 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
EUR/USD short310Apr 16, 2009Apr 19, 2009$4,216
EUR/CAD short230Apr 14, 2009Apr 15, 2009$2,911
EUR/GBP short850Apr 14, 2009Apr 14, 2009$4,429
CHF/JPY short360Apr 7, 2009Apr 13, 2009($27)
USD/CHF long380Apr 12, 2009Apr 13, 2009($5,391)
EUR/JPY short250Apr 7, 2009Apr 8, 2009$31
CAD/JPY short380Apr 7, 2009Apr 7, 2009($24)
EUR/USD short160Mar 30, 2009Apr 2, 2009($2,048)
EUR/GBP short270Apr 1, 2009Apr 1, 2009$2,356
EUR/AUD short120Mar 31, 2009Apr 1, 2009$1,281
GBP/AUD short120Mar 31, 2009Mar 31, 2009($1,478)
GBP/AUD long120Mar 30, 2009Mar 31, 2009($1,478)
NZD/USD short240Mar 30, 2009Mar 30, 2009($1,750)
EUR/AUD long120Mar 30, 2009Mar 30, 2009($1,401)
USD/CHF long240Mar 30, 2009Mar 30, 2009$2,156
USD/CAD short130Mar 23, 2009Mar 30, 2009($1,462)
USD/CHF short110Mar 23, 2009Mar 27, 2009($2,629)
EUR/USD long90Mar 22, 2009Mar 24, 2009($1,953)
GBP/USD long110Mar 22, 2009Mar 24, 2009$2,236
GBP/CAD long150Mar 23, 2009Mar 23, 2009($1,501)
GBP/JPY long100Mar 20, 2009Mar 22, 2009$13
AUD/JPY long160Mar 16, 2009Mar 20, 2009$10
GBP/JPY short100Mar 18, 2009Mar 20, 2009($13)
CAD/JPY short180Mar 19, 2009Mar 19, 2009($10)
GBP/AUD short80Mar 17, 2009Mar 18, 2009$1,506
GBP/CAD short120Mar 18, 2009Mar 18, 2009($2,205)
USD/CAD short140Mar 16, 2009Mar 18, 2009$1,201
USD/JPY short220Mar 18, 2009Mar 18, 2009$20
EUR/CAD long180Mar 16, 2009Mar 18, 2009$903
EUR/GBP long200Mar 17, 2009Mar 18, 2009$2,378

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.