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VP Trader

Stocks · Started Jan 2009

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
16.2%
Trades
117
Win Trades
27.4%
Profit Factor
1.10
Win Months
1.9%

About this strategy

**Final Note 7/10/2009 - The system has been discontinued on C2. Contact me via C2 Private Message for any inquiries.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2009-2.514.6-4.7-7.86.7-3.8-1.21.40.00.30.00.01.3
20100.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.30.00.00.00.0-0.2
2011-0.0-0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.0
20120.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
2014-0.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.4
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/12/2009
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age215 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades117
# Profitable32
% Profitable27.4%
Avg trade duration2.0 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown16.2%
drawdown periodFeb 24, 2009 - May 06, 2009
Annual Return (Compounded)0.0%
Avg win$298
Avg loss$102

Ratios

W:L ratio1.10
Sharpe Ratio-0.39
Sortino Ratio-0.77
Calmar Ratio0.11

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.04
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life777.6%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-775.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.5%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity13.5%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss6.7%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$102
Avg Win$298
# Winners32
Sum Trade PL (losers)$8,682
Sum Trade PL (winners)$9,522
Num Months Winners6
# Losers85
% Winners27.4%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table213

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)121.53
Avg Position Time (hrs)2.03
Avg Trade Length0.10
Last Trade Ago6276

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta0.01
Treynor Index-0.52

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades48.08
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.80
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats10.32
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats11.86
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.14
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.01
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.02

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.02
SD0.04
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.34
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.34
df67
t0.81
p0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.17
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.49
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.16
Sortino ratio0.71
Upside Potential Ratio1.26
Upside part of mean0.03
Downside part of mean-0.01
Upside SD0.04
Downside SD0.02
N nonnegative terms60
N negative terms8
N of observations68
Mean of predictor0.41
Mean of criterion0.02
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.04
Covariance-0.00
r-0.19
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.03
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error66
t(b)-1.55
p(b)0.94
t(a)1.36
p(a)0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.07
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.51
Jensen alpha (a)0.03
Mean0.01
SD0.04
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.33
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.32
df67
t0.78
p0.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.50
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.15
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.50
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.15
Sortino ratio0.65
Upside Potential Ratio1.20
Upside part of mean0.03
Downside part of mean-0.01
Upside SD0.04
Downside SD0.02
N nonnegative terms60
N negative terms8
N of observations68
Mean of predictor0.37
Mean of criterion0.01
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.04
Covariance-0.00
r-0.20
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.03
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error66
t(b)-1.70
p(b)0.95
t(a)1.36
p(a)0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.07
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.42
Jensen alpha (a)0.03
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean0.03
SD0.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.17
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.17
df1504
t0.40
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.65
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.99
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.65
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.99
Sortino ratio0.25
Upside Potential Ratio2.54
Upside part of mean0.26
Downside part of mean-0.23
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms1403
N negative terms102
N of observations1505
Mean of predictor0.45
Mean of criterion0.03
SD of predictor0.39
SD of criterion0.15
Covariance-0.01
r-0.18
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error1503
t(b)-7.28
p(b)0.62
t(a)0.93
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.18
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.35
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
Mean0.01
SD0.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.09
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.09
df1504
t0.22
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.73
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.91
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.73
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.91
Sortino ratio0.13
Upside Potential Ratio2.39
Upside part of mean0.25
Downside part of mean-0.24
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms1403
N negative terms102
N of observations1505
Mean of predictor0.38
Mean of criterion0.01
SD of predictor0.39
SD of criterion0.15
Covariance-0.01
r-0.18
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.04
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error1503
t(b)-7.22
p(b)0.62
t(a)0.66
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.16
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.20
Jensen alpha (a)0.04
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.40
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.34
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations68
Minimum0.95
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.08
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low8
Percentage of outliers low0.12
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high8
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.96
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.06
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.62
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations1505
Minimum0.88
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.12
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low102
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high89
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.32
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.05
Quartile 10.05
Median0.05
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.05
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations4
Minimum0.03
Quartile 10.06
Median0.10
Quartile 30.12
Maximum0.13
Mean of quarter 10.03
Mean of quarter 20.08
Mean of quarter 30.12
Mean of quarter 40.13
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-401470080
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)71
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.01
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.01
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.28
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.59
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.01
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.01
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.11
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.11
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.74
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 156 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
QLD long1236Jul 10, 2009Jul 10, 2009($85)
QLD long1232Jul 9, 2009Jul 9, 2009($110)
QLD long1252Jul 8, 2009Jul 8, 2009($84)
QID long16Jul 7, 2009Jul 7, 2009$400
QLD long1172Jul 6, 2009Jul 6, 2009($91)
QID long17Jul 1, 2009Jul 1, 2009($99)
QLD long1116Jun 30, 2009Jun 30, 2009($111)
QID long17Jun 29, 2009Jun 29, 2009($109)
QLD long1136Jun 26, 2009Jun 26, 2009$162
QLD long1196Jun 25, 2009Jun 25, 2009($104)
QLD long1184Jun 24, 2009Jun 24, 2009$145
QLD long1204Jun 23, 2009Jun 23, 2009($101)
QLD long1172Jun 22, 2009Jun 22, 2009($101)
QLD long1164Jun 19, 2009Jun 19, 2009($112)
QID long17Jun 18, 2009Jun 18, 2009($102)
QLD long1212Jun 17, 2009Jun 17, 2009($102)
QID long17Jun 16, 2009Jun 16, 2009($112)
QID long17Jun 15, 2009Jun 15, 2009$146
QID long18Jun 12, 2009Jun 12, 2009$58
QLD long1124Jun 11, 2009Jun 11, 2009$65
QID long17Jun 10, 2009Jun 10, 2009$425
QLD long1088Jun 9, 2009Jun 9, 2009($116)
QLD long1120Jun 8, 2009Jun 8, 2009($114)
QID long17Jun 5, 2009Jun 5, 2009($92)
QLD long1120Jun 4, 2009Jun 4, 2009$137
QID long17Jun 3, 2009Jun 3, 2009($105)
QID long17Jun 2, 2009Jun 2, 2009($102)
QLD long1264May 28, 2009May 28, 2009($114)
QID long16May 27, 2009May 27, 2009($102)
QLD long1328May 26, 2009May 26, 2009$536

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.