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RWB 20% in 20 Days

Futures · Started Oct 2009

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
380
Win Trades
70.0%
Profit Factor
1.10
Win Months
1.0%

About this strategy

February 28 -Special Notice...

This will be my last full month providing trading signals on the C2 website. We have lowered our subscription fee to $5/qtr after a 60 day free trial period which essentially means there will be no charge because we will be gone off the site before the 60 day free trial expires.

I have also set no time delay for non-subscribers to view closed trades immediately and set a 24 hour period to view finished trades so if someone wants to examine the components of a particular trade with more than one entry level and exit level they can do so.

I do not necessarily expect anyone to follow my trading signals for free and make any money because I have doubts whether there are any individuals on this site bright enough to recognize that I have probably forgotten more about the S&P futures market than most of you will ever learn.

(I will leave the above statement absolutely unchanged on this page for the entire final month so that all of you can have the last laugh if I fail to again produce a great return in March.)

Does your trading strategy actually fit the definition of "Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." Albert Einstein

Fact: The market is controlled and only exists to remove funds from the little guys into the pockets of the big guys. "If you're not inside you are outside, OK" -Gordon Gecko. (Michael Douglas played this role patterned after a former big player on Wall St. with whom I am acquainted.)

Fact: The average managed futures accounts, including the biggest, run by MFGlobal, earn less than 1/4 point ($12.50) per day for every $10K invested in the market. Average gain per year, at least prior to Oct/2007, was less than 25%, with the firm taking a 20% commission.

Goldman Sachs, again at least prior to Oct/2007, provided a better than 60% ROI on managed futures accounts and collected a 40% commission on profits, netting clients about a 35% ROI and multi-millionaires were lined up at their door begging for the privilege to have them manage their money.

I have another personal acquaintance who set a track record of better than 80% per year, registered with the SEC, over more than the better part of a decade. We went head to head for over a month a year or two ago and I blew him away with my better returns. My signals are actually even better today.

If I really believed you had up to two years to watch my trading signals and then make some money to retire (as one forum member suggested should be done for trading programs listed on C2) I would sit around and provide small safe returns and wait for subscribers to join someday in the future.

The programs that get the highest reviews make a paltry 100% or less per year and people think that is wonderful. At the same time the Federal Reserve has doubled the money supply in the US in the past year alone and has created a debt for you and every member of your family that will be impossible to pay back. The American Empire is crumbling around you. When reality finally hits you then you will realize your 100% return you are so excited about has already been cut in half and continues to decrease day by day.

Yes, we had a problem at the end of January but the final big loss of $15K did not have to be. I was down $15K but was going to hold on because I knew the market would come back in the next 24 hours. Then I happened to read the last two reviews that were just posted and said to myself; "What is the point, I will take this loss and start over again at $15K"

If you check the market you will see we exited sometime soon after the two reviews were posted, or at least after we saw them, when the market was at 1082.00 with our average buy at 1097.50. The market bottomed within the next hour at 1081.00 and climbed back to over 1097.50 within the next 24 hours.

Since we started the month of January at $36K we would have ended at $30K posting a 17% loss for the month of January ($6K/$36K) but instead we posted a 60% loss ($21K/$36K) by exiting the final big losing trade to start over at $15K.

If we had started the month of February at $30K without the final big loss of $15K in January we could be over $70K right now with the 134% gain this past month. I did not even take all the available trades my signals provided this past month.

I am not really looking for subscribers because I will be leaving the C2 site on or before April 6th but I did want to have the opportunity to post the above statements before the final month begins.

Regards,

RWB
http://amnesiablog.wordpress.com/2009/01/13/he-played-the-violin-in-the-subway/

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
200944.2-31.914.212.1
2010-183.9-81.6-780.9-6.7-0.70.00.0-0.50.00.00.0-0.1-228.7
20110.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20120.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began10/4/2009
Suggested Minimum Capital$15,000
Age206 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades380
# Profitable266
% Profitable70.0%
Avg trade duration1.7 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodDec 23, 2009 - March 29, 2010
Annual Return (Compounded)0.0%
Avg win$489
Avg loss$1,074

Ratios

W:L ratio1.06
Sharpe Ratio-1.85
Sortino Ratio-1.89
Calmar Ratio-0.11

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.17
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life644.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-881.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)2.4%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,074
Avg Win$489
# Winners266
Sum Trade PL (losers)$122,427
Sum Trade PL (winners)$129,943
Num Months Winners2
# Losers114
% Winners70.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table4

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)104.52
Avg Position Time (hrs)1.74
Avg Trade Length0.10
Last Trade Ago6008

Regression

Alpha0
Beta3.22
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.04
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.08
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-35.23
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.08
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats67.94
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats66.34
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.20
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.39
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.03

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.20
SD0.93
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.21
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.21
df55
t0.46
p0.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.70
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.12
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.70
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.12
Sortino ratio0.56
Upside Potential Ratio1.29
Upside part of mean0.45
Downside part of mean-0.26
Upside SD0.85
Downside SD0.35
N nonnegative terms50
N negative terms6
N of observations56
Mean of predictor0.44
Mean of criterion0.20
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.93
Covariance0.01
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.16
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.13
Mean Square Error0.88
DF error54
t(b)0.33
p(b)0.37
t(a)0.26
p(a)0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.81
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.84
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.10
Treynor index (mean / b)1.25
Jensen alpha (a)0.13
Mean-0.08
SD0.73
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.12
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.11
df55
t-0.25
p0.60
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.79
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.02
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.79
Sortino ratio-0.16
Upside Potential Ratio0.53
Upside part of mean0.28
Downside part of mean-0.36
Upside SD0.49
Downside SD0.53
N nonnegative terms50
N negative terms6
N of observations56
Mean of predictor0.40
Mean of criterion-0.08
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.73
Covariance0.02
r0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.25
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.18
Mean Square Error0.54
DF error54
t(b)0.63
p(b)0.27
t(a)-0.49
p(a)0.69
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.54
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.93
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.57
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.34
Jensen alpha (a)-0.18
VaR(95%)0.30
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.35
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean0.51
SD1.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.42
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.42
df1238
t0.90
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.32
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.49
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.32
Sortino ratio0.86
Upside Potential Ratio2.87
Upside part of mean1.70
Downside part of mean-1.19
Upside SD1.08
Downside SD0.59
N nonnegative terms1163
N negative terms76
N of observations1239
Mean of predictor0.46
Mean of criterion0.51
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion1.23
Covariance0.07
r0.19
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.72
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.18
Mean Square Error1.46
DF error1237
t(b)6.63
p(b)0.38
t(a)0.33
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.93
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.91
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.28
Treynor index (mean / b)0.71
Jensen alpha (a)0.18
Mean-0.08
SD1.08
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.08
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.08
df1238
t-0.17
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.98
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.82
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.98
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.82
Sortino ratio-0.10
Upside Potential Ratio1.70
Upside part of mean1.37
Downside part of mean-1.46
Upside SD0.71
Downside SD0.81
N nonnegative terms1163
N negative terms76
N of observations1239
Mean of predictor0.40
Mean of criterion-0.08
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion1.08
Covariance0.07
r0.20
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.67
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.35
Mean Square Error1.12
DF error1237
t(b)7.12
p(b)0.37
t(a)-0.72
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.85
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.60
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.12
Jensen alpha (a)-0.35
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.13
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.12
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.05
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations56
Minimum0.36
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum2.82
Mean of quarter 10.91
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.15
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low6
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.80
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.42
Extreme Value Index (moments method)2.57
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.10
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations1239
Minimum0.38
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum2.77
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low76
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.93
Number of outliers high105
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.08
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.62
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.18
Quartile 10.28
Median0.37
Quartile 30.51
Maximum0.64
Mean of quarter 10.18
Mean of quarter 20.37
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.64
Inter Quartile Range0.23
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations5
Minimum0.08
Quartile 10.16
Median0.58
Quartile 30.65
Maximum0.74
Mean of quarter 10.12
Mean of quarter 20.58
Mean of quarter 30.65
Mean of quarter 40.74
Inter Quartile Range0.49
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-375027840
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)96
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.07
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.08
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.13
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.13
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.23
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.07
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.08
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.11
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.11
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.62
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 803 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
ES M0short10Apr 6, 2010Apr 6, 2010($80)
ES M0long10Apr 6, 2010Apr 6, 2010$1,795
ES M0short10Apr 5, 2010Apr 5, 2010$45
ES M0short10Mar 31, 2010Mar 31, 2010$170
ES M0short10Mar 30, 2010Mar 31, 2010$1,920
ES M0short10Mar 29, 2010Mar 30, 2010$670
ES M0long12Mar 29, 2010Mar 29, 2010$504
ES M0short12Mar 29, 2010Mar 29, 2010$504
ES M0long8Mar 26, 2010Mar 26, 2010$36
ES M0short8Mar 26, 2010Mar 26, 2010$36
ES M0short4Mar 26, 2010Mar 26, 2010$118
ES M0long14Mar 25, 2010Mar 25, 2010($9,212)
ES M0long12Mar 24, 2010Mar 25, 2010($21)
ES M0long8Mar 24, 2010Mar 24, 2010$136
ES M0long12Mar 23, 2010Mar 23, 2010$1,404
ES M0short6Mar 23, 2010Mar 23, 2010($948)
ES M0short6Mar 23, 2010Mar 23, 2010($348)
ES M0short6Mar 23, 2010Mar 23, 2010$327
ES M0short6Mar 22, 2010Mar 22, 2010$252
ES M0long12Mar 19, 2010Mar 19, 2010($1,084)
ES M0long12Mar 18, 2010Mar 18, 2010$954
ES M0long12Mar 18, 2010Mar 18, 2010($246)
ES M0long12Mar 18, 2010Mar 18, 2010($171)
ES M0short12Mar 17, 2010Mar 17, 2010$379
ES M0long7Mar 17, 2010Mar 17, 2010($319)
ES M0short7Mar 17, 2010Mar 17, 2010$32
ES M0short10Mar 16, 2010Mar 16, 2010$358
ES M0short10Mar 16, 2010Mar 16, 2010($205)
ES M0short10Mar 16, 2010Mar 16, 2010($455)
ES M0short7Mar 16, 2010Mar 16, 2010($1,019)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.