RWB 20% in 20 Days
- hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
- 0.0%
- Max Drawdown
- 100.0%
- Trades
- 380
- Win Trades
- 70.0%
- Profit Factor
- 1.10
- Win Months
- 1.0%
About this strategy
This will be my last full month providing trading signals on the C2 website. We have lowered our subscription fee to $5/qtr after a 60 day free trial period which essentially means there will be no charge because we will be gone off the site before the 60 day free trial expires.
I have also set no time delay for non-subscribers to view closed trades immediately and set a 24 hour period to view finished trades so if someone wants to examine the components of a particular trade with more than one entry level and exit level they can do so.
I do not necessarily expect anyone to follow my trading signals for free and make any money because I have doubts whether there are any individuals on this site bright enough to recognize that I have probably forgotten more about the S&P futures market than most of you will ever learn.
(I will leave the above statement absolutely unchanged on this page for the entire final month so that all of you can have the last laugh if I fail to again produce a great return in March.)
Does your trading strategy actually fit the definition of "Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." Albert Einstein
Fact: The market is controlled and only exists to remove funds from the little guys into the pockets of the big guys. "If you're not inside you are outside, OK" -Gordon Gecko. (Michael Douglas played this role patterned after a former big player on Wall St. with whom I am acquainted.)
Fact: The average managed futures accounts, including the biggest, run by MFGlobal, earn less than 1/4 point ($12.50) per day for every $10K invested in the market. Average gain per year, at least prior to Oct/2007, was less than 25%, with the firm taking a 20% commission.
Goldman Sachs, again at least prior to Oct/2007, provided a better than 60% ROI on managed futures accounts and collected a 40% commission on profits, netting clients about a 35% ROI and multi-millionaires were lined up at their door begging for the privilege to have them manage their money.
I have another personal acquaintance who set a track record of better than 80% per year, registered with the SEC, over more than the better part of a decade. We went head to head for over a month a year or two ago and I blew him away with my better returns. My signals are actually even better today.
If I really believed you had up to two years to watch my trading signals and then make some money to retire (as one forum member suggested should be done for trading programs listed on C2) I would sit around and provide small safe returns and wait for subscribers to join someday in the future.
The programs that get the highest reviews make a paltry 100% or less per year and people think that is wonderful. At the same time the Federal Reserve has doubled the money supply in the US in the past year alone and has created a debt for you and every member of your family that will be impossible to pay back. The American Empire is crumbling around you. When reality finally hits you then you will realize your 100% return you are so excited about has already been cut in half and continues to decrease day by day.
Yes, we had a problem at the end of January but the final big loss of $15K did not have to be. I was down $15K but was going to hold on because I knew the market would come back in the next 24 hours. Then I happened to read the last two reviews that were just posted and said to myself; "What is the point, I will take this loss and start over again at $15K"
If you check the market you will see we exited sometime soon after the two reviews were posted, or at least after we saw them, when the market was at 1082.00 with our average buy at 1097.50. The market bottomed within the next hour at 1081.00 and climbed back to over 1097.50 within the next 24 hours.
Since we started the month of January at $36K we would have ended at $30K posting a 17% loss for the month of January ($6K/$36K) but instead we posted a 60% loss ($21K/$36K) by exiting the final big losing trade to start over at $15K.
If we had started the month of February at $30K without the final big loss of $15K in January we could be over $70K right now with the 134% gain this past month. I did not even take all the available trades my signals provided this past month.
I am not really looking for subscribers because I will be leaving the C2 site on or before April 6th but I did want to have the opportunity to post the above statements before the final month begins.
Regards,
RWB
http://amnesiablog.wordpress.com/2009/01/13/he-played-the-violin-in-the-subway/
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 44.2 | -31.9 | 14.2 | 12.1 | |||||||||
| 2010 | -183.9 | -81.6 | -780.9 | -6.7 | -0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -228.7 |
| 2011 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 2012 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 2013 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 2014 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 2015 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 2016 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 2017 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 2018 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 2019 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| 2020 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 2021 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 2022 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 2023 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 2024 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 2025 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| 2026 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Statistics
Overview
| Strategy began | 10/4/2009 |
|---|---|
| Suggested Minimum Capital | $15,000 |
| Age | 206 months |
| What it trades | Futures |
| # Trades | 380 |
| # Profitable | 266 |
| % Profitable | 70.0% |
| Avg trade duration | 1.7 hours |
| Max peak-to-valley drawdown | 100.0% |
| drawdown period | Dec 23, 2009 - March 29, 2010 |
| Annual Return (Compounded) | 0.0% |
| Avg win | $489 |
| Avg loss | $1,074 |
Ratios
| W:L ratio | 1.06 |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -1.85 |
| Sortino Ratio | -1.89 |
| Calmar Ratio | -0.11 |
CORRELATION STATISTICS
| Correlation to SP500 | 0.17 |
|---|---|
| Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life | 644.7% |
| Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu) | -881.0% |
Return Statistics
| Ann Return (w trading costs) | 0.0% |
|---|---|
| Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant) | 0.0% |
| Return Pcnt Since TOS Status | 0.0% |
| Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees) | 2.4% |
Slump
| Current Slump as Pcnt Equity | — |
|---|---|
| Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life | 1.0% |
Instruments
| Percent Trades Forex | 0.0% |
|---|---|
| Percent Trades Futures | 1.0% |
| Percent Trades Options | 0.0% |
| Percent Trades Stocks | 0.0% |
Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
| Chance of 10% account loss | 100.0% |
|---|---|
| Chance of 20% account loss | 100.0% |
| Chance of 30% account loss | 100.0% |
| Chance of 40% account loss | 100.0% |
| Chance of 50% account loss | 100.0% |
| Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 100.0% |
| Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 100.0% |
| Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 100.0% |
| Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 100.0% |
| Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo) | 100.0% |
Automation
| Percentage Signals Automated | 0.0% |
|---|
Popularity
| Popularity (Today) | 0 |
|---|---|
| Popularity (Last 6 weeks) | 0 |
| Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale) | 0 |
Trading Style
| Any stock shorts? 0/1 | 0 |
|---|
Trades-Own-System Certification
| Trades Own System? | 0 |
|---|---|
| TOS percent | 0.0% |
Win / Loss
| Avg Loss | $1,074 |
|---|---|
| Avg Win | $489 |
| # Winners | 266 |
| Sum Trade PL (losers) | $122,427 |
| Sum Trade PL (winners) | $129,943 |
| Num Months Winners | 2 |
| # Losers | 114 |
| % Winners | 70.0% |
Dividends
| Dividends Received in Model Acct | 0 |
|---|
Age
| Num Months filled monthly returns table | 4 |
|---|
Frequency
| Avg Position Time (mins) | 104.52 |
|---|---|
| Avg Position Time (hrs) | 1.74 |
| Avg Trade Length | 0.10 |
| Last Trade Ago | 6008 |
Regression
| Alpha | 0 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 3.22 |
| Treynor Index | 0 |
Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
| MAE:Equity, average, all trades | 0.04 |
|---|---|
| MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | 0 |
| MAE:Equity, average, losing trades | 0.08 |
| MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | — |
| MAE:Equity, average, winning trades | 0.02 |
| MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat | — |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades | -35.23 |
| MAE:PL (avg, all trades) | 1.08 |
| MAE:PL (avg, losing trades) | — |
| MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats | 67.94 |
| MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats | 66.34 |
| MAE:PL (avg, winning trades) | — |
| MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy | — |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades | 1.20 |
| Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades | -1.39 |
| Hold-and-Hope Ratio | -0.03 |
RATIO STATISTICS
| Mean | 0.20 |
|---|---|
| SD | 0.93 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.21 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.21 |
| df | 55 |
| t | 0.46 |
| p | 0.32 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.70 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 1.12 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -0.70 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 1.12 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.56 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 1.29 |
| Upside part of mean | 0.45 |
| Downside part of mean | -0.26 |
| Upside SD | 0.85 |
| Downside SD | 0.35 |
| N nonnegative terms | 50 |
| N negative terms | 6 |
| N of observations | 56 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.44 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.20 |
| SD of predictor | 0.26 |
| SD of criterion | 0.93 |
| Covariance | 0.01 |
| r | 0.04 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.16 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.13 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.88 |
| DF error | 54 |
| t(b) | 0.33 |
| p(b) | 0.37 |
| t(a) | 0.26 |
| p(a) | 0.40 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.81 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 1.12 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.84 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 1.10 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 1.25 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.13 |
| Mean | -0.08 |
| SD | 0.73 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | -0.12 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | -0.11 |
| df | 55 |
| t | -0.25 |
| p | 0.60 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -1.02 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0.79 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -1.02 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0.79 |
| Sortino ratio | -0.16 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 0.53 |
| Upside part of mean | 0.28 |
| Downside part of mean | -0.36 |
| Upside SD | 0.49 |
| Downside SD | 0.53 |
| N nonnegative terms | 50 |
| N negative terms | 6 |
| N of observations | 56 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.40 |
| Mean of criterion | -0.08 |
| SD of predictor | 0.25 |
| SD of criterion | 0.73 |
| Covariance | 0.02 |
| r | 0.09 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.25 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | -0.18 |
| Mean Square Error | 0.54 |
| DF error | 54 |
| t(b) | 0.63 |
| p(b) | 0.27 |
| t(a) | -0.49 |
| p(a) | 0.69 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | -0.54 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 1.04 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.93 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.57 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | -0.34 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | -0.18 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.30 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.35 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.01 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.04 |
| Mean | 0.51 |
| SD | 1.23 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0.42 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0.42 |
| df | 1238 |
| t | 0.90 |
| p | 0.49 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.49 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 1.32 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -0.49 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 1.32 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.86 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 2.87 |
| Upside part of mean | 1.70 |
| Downside part of mean | -1.19 |
| Upside SD | 1.08 |
| Downside SD | 0.59 |
| N nonnegative terms | 1163 |
| N negative terms | 76 |
| N of observations | 1239 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.46 |
| Mean of criterion | 0.51 |
| SD of predictor | 0.32 |
| SD of criterion | 1.23 |
| Covariance | 0.07 |
| r | 0.19 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.72 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0.18 |
| Mean Square Error | 1.46 |
| DF error | 1237 |
| t(b) | 6.63 |
| p(b) | 0.38 |
| t(a) | 0.33 |
| p(a) | 0.49 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.51 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.93 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -0.91 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 1.28 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0.71 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0.18 |
| Mean | -0.08 |
| SD | 1.08 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | -0.08 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | -0.08 |
| df | 1238 |
| t | -0.17 |
| p | 0.50 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | -0.98 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0.82 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | -0.98 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0.82 |
| Sortino ratio | -0.10 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 1.70 |
| Upside part of mean | 1.37 |
| Downside part of mean | -1.46 |
| Upside SD | 0.71 |
| Downside SD | 0.81 |
| N nonnegative terms | 1163 |
| N negative terms | 76 |
| N of observations | 1239 |
| Mean of predictor | 0.40 |
| Mean of criterion | -0.08 |
| SD of predictor | 0.32 |
| SD of criterion | 1.08 |
| Covariance | 0.07 |
| r | 0.20 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0.67 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | -0.35 |
| Mean Square Error | 1.12 |
| DF error | 1237 |
| t(b) | 7.12 |
| p(b) | 0.37 |
| t(a) | -0.72 |
| p(a) | 0.51 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.48 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0.85 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | -1.31 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0.60 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | -0.12 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | -0.35 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.10 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.13 |
| VaR(95%) | 0.00 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0.01 |
| Mean | 0 |
| SD | 0 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0 |
| df | 0 |
| t | 0 |
| p | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0 |
| Sortino ratio | 0 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 0 |
| Upside part of mean | 0 |
| Downside part of mean | 0 |
| Upside SD | 0 |
| Downside SD | 0 |
| N nonnegative terms | 131 |
| N negative terms | 0 |
| N of observations | 131 |
| Mean of predictor | 1.12 |
| Mean of criterion | 0 |
| SD of predictor | 0.36 |
| SD of criterion | 0 |
| Covariance | 0 |
| r | 0 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0 |
| Mean Square Error | 0 |
| DF error | 0 |
| t(b) | 0 |
| p(b) | 0 |
| t(a) | 0 |
| p(a) | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0 |
| Mean | 0 |
| SD | 0 |
| Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate) | 0 |
| Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE) | 0 |
| df | 0 |
| t | 0 |
| p | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0 |
| Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation | 0 |
| Sortino ratio | 0 |
| Upside Potential Ratio | 0 |
| Upside part of mean | 0 |
| Downside part of mean | 0 |
| Upside SD | 0 |
| Downside SD | 0 |
| N nonnegative terms | 131 |
| N negative terms | 0 |
| N of observations | 131 |
| Mean of predictor | 1.05 |
| Mean of criterion | 0 |
| SD of predictor | 0.36 |
| SD of criterion | 0 |
| Covariance | 0 |
| r | 0 |
| b (slope, estimate of beta) | 0 |
| a (intercept, estimate of alpha) | 0 |
| Mean Square Error | 0 |
| DF error | 0 |
| t(b) | 0 |
| p(b) | 0 |
| t(a) | 0 |
| p(a) | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0 |
| VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl) | 0.10 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta | 0 |
| Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0 |
| Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha | 0 |
| Treynor index (mean / b) | 0 |
| Jensen alpha (a) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0 |
| VaR(95%) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall on VaR | 0 |
ORDER STATISTICS
| Number of observations | 56 |
|---|---|
| Minimum | 0.36 |
| Quartile 1 | 1 |
| Median | 1 |
| Quartile 3 | 1 |
| Maximum | 2.82 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.91 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.15 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0 |
| Number outliers low | 6 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.11 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0.80 |
| Number of outliers high | 5 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.09 |
| Mean of outliers high | 1.42 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 2.57 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.01 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 2.10 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0.03 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0 |
| Number of observations | 1239 |
| Minimum | 0.38 |
| Quartile 1 | 1 |
| Median | 1 |
| Quartile 3 | 1 |
| Maximum | 2.77 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.98 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1.03 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0 |
| Number outliers low | 76 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0.06 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0.93 |
| Number of outliers high | 105 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0.08 |
| Mean of outliers high | 1.08 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 1.62 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0.00 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0 |
| Number of observations | 131 |
| Minimum | 1 |
| Quartile 1 | 1 |
| Median | 1 |
| Quartile 3 | 1 |
| Maximum | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 1 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 1 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0 |
| Mean of outliers high | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0 |
DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
| Number of observations | 3 |
|---|---|
| Minimum | 0.18 |
| Quartile 1 | 0.28 |
| Median | 0.37 |
| Quartile 3 | 0.51 |
| Maximum | 0.64 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.18 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.37 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.64 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.23 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0 |
| Mean of outliers high | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0 |
| Number of observations | 5 |
| Minimum | 0.08 |
| Quartile 1 | 0.16 |
| Median | 0.58 |
| Quartile 3 | 0.65 |
| Maximum | 0.74 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0.12 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0.58 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0.65 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0.74 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0.49 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0 |
| Mean of outliers high | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0 |
| Number of observations | 0 |
| Minimum | 0 |
| Quartile 1 | 0 |
| Median | 0 |
| Quartile 3 | 0 |
| Maximum | 0 |
| Mean of quarter 1 | 0 |
| Mean of quarter 2 | 0 |
| Mean of quarter 3 | 0 |
| Mean of quarter 4 | 0 |
| Inter Quartile Range | 0 |
| Number outliers low | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers low | 0 |
| Mean of outliers low | 0 |
| Number of outliers high | 0 |
| Percentage of outliers high | 0 |
| Mean of outliers high | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (moments method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (moments method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (moments method) | 0 |
| Extreme Value Index (regression method) | 0 |
| VaR(95%) (regression method) | 0 |
| Expected Shortfall (regression method) | 0 |
| Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life? | -375027840 |
| Max Equity Drawdown (num days) | 96 |
| Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative | 0.5% |
COMBINED STATISTICS
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | -0.07 |
|---|---|
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | -0.08 |
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | -0.13 |
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | -0.13 |
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | -0.23 |
| j156mfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| j157mfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | -0.07 |
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | -0.08 |
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | -0.11 |
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | -0.11 |
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | -0.62 |
| j313dfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| j314dfCOMBRisPar | 0 |
| Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation) | 0 |
| Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation) | 0 |
| Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down) | 0 |
| Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs | 0 |
| Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal | 0 |
Trading record
Placed 803 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.
| Symbol | Side | Qty | Opened | Closed | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES M0 | short | 10 | Apr 6, 2010 | Apr 6, 2010 | ($80) |
| ES M0 | long | 10 | Apr 6, 2010 | Apr 6, 2010 | $1,795 |
| ES M0 | short | 10 | Apr 5, 2010 | Apr 5, 2010 | $45 |
| ES M0 | short | 10 | Mar 31, 2010 | Mar 31, 2010 | $170 |
| ES M0 | short | 10 | Mar 30, 2010 | Mar 31, 2010 | $1,920 |
| ES M0 | short | 10 | Mar 29, 2010 | Mar 30, 2010 | $670 |
| ES M0 | long | 12 | Mar 29, 2010 | Mar 29, 2010 | $504 |
| ES M0 | short | 12 | Mar 29, 2010 | Mar 29, 2010 | $504 |
| ES M0 | long | 8 | Mar 26, 2010 | Mar 26, 2010 | $36 |
| ES M0 | short | 8 | Mar 26, 2010 | Mar 26, 2010 | $36 |
| ES M0 | short | 4 | Mar 26, 2010 | Mar 26, 2010 | $118 |
| ES M0 | long | 14 | Mar 25, 2010 | Mar 25, 2010 | ($9,212) |
| ES M0 | long | 12 | Mar 24, 2010 | Mar 25, 2010 | ($21) |
| ES M0 | long | 8 | Mar 24, 2010 | Mar 24, 2010 | $136 |
| ES M0 | long | 12 | Mar 23, 2010 | Mar 23, 2010 | $1,404 |
| ES M0 | short | 6 | Mar 23, 2010 | Mar 23, 2010 | ($948) |
| ES M0 | short | 6 | Mar 23, 2010 | Mar 23, 2010 | ($348) |
| ES M0 | short | 6 | Mar 23, 2010 | Mar 23, 2010 | $327 |
| ES M0 | short | 6 | Mar 22, 2010 | Mar 22, 2010 | $252 |
| ES M0 | long | 12 | Mar 19, 2010 | Mar 19, 2010 | ($1,084) |
| ES M0 | long | 12 | Mar 18, 2010 | Mar 18, 2010 | $954 |
| ES M0 | long | 12 | Mar 18, 2010 | Mar 18, 2010 | ($246) |
| ES M0 | long | 12 | Mar 18, 2010 | Mar 18, 2010 | ($171) |
| ES M0 | short | 12 | Mar 17, 2010 | Mar 17, 2010 | $379 |
| ES M0 | long | 7 | Mar 17, 2010 | Mar 17, 2010 | ($319) |
| ES M0 | short | 7 | Mar 17, 2010 | Mar 17, 2010 | $32 |
| ES M0 | short | 10 | Mar 16, 2010 | Mar 16, 2010 | $358 |
| ES M0 | short | 10 | Mar 16, 2010 | Mar 16, 2010 | ($205) |
| ES M0 | short | 10 | Mar 16, 2010 | Mar 16, 2010 | ($455) |
| ES M0 | short | 7 | Mar 16, 2010 | Mar 16, 2010 | ($1,019) |
Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.