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Un Beau Matin De Mai

Futures · Started Nov 2009

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
179
Win Trades
74.9%
Profit Factor
1
Win Months
3.4%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20092.47.09.5
2010-16.5-15.0-51.9-40.8702.5-16.84.3-0.8-24.7-7.028.9-5.319.4
201119.2-13.6-6.7-14.5-6.64.0-17.4-11.10.00.00.00.0-41.4
20120.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.0-0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.0-917.10.00.00.00.00.0-917.1
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began11/24/2009
Suggested Minimum Capital$15,221
Age204 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades179
# Profitable134
% Profitable74.9%
Avg trade duration4.9 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodApril 19, 2010 - July 01, 2015
Annual Return (Compounded)0.0%
Avg win$577
Avg loss$1,665

Ratios

W:L ratio1.03
Sharpe Ratio-0.18
Sortino Ratio-0.19
Calmar Ratio-0.89

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.13
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life592.0%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-1325.9%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.1%
Percent Trades Futures0.9%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,665
Avg Win$577
# Winners134
Sum Trade PL (losers)$74,935
Sum Trade PL (winners)$77,347
Num Months Winners7
# Losers45
% Winners74.9%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table69

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)7037.72
Avg Position Time (hrs)117.29
Avg Trade Length4.90
Last Trade Ago5514

Regression

Alpha0
Beta-1.68
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.05
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.11
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.12
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.03
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-5.05
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.01
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats76.19
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats27.79
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.72
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.32
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.56

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.15
SD1.68
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.09
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.09
df54
t0.19
p0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.83
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.01
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.83
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.01
Sortino ratio0.27
Upside Potential Ratio1.43
Upside part of mean0.82
Downside part of mean-0.67
Upside SD1.56
Downside SD0.57
N nonnegative terms42
N negative terms13
N of observations55
Mean of predictor0.47
Mean of criterion0.15
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion1.68
Covariance-0.09
r-0.17
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.90
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.58
Mean Square Error2.78
DF error53
t(b)-1.28
p(b)0.90
t(a)0.68
p(a)0.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.28
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.17
Jensen alpha (a)0.58
Mean-2.25
SD4.63
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.49
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.48
df54
t-1.04
p0.85
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.44
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.40
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.44
Sortino ratio-0.49
Upside Potential Ratio0.09
Upside part of mean0.40
Downside part of mean-2.65
Upside SD0.70
Downside SD4.58
N nonnegative terms42
N negative terms13
N of observations55
Mean of predictor0.42
Mean of criterion-2.25
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion4.63
Covariance0.06
r0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.73
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-2.55
Mean Square Error21.83
DF error53
t(b)0.34
p(b)0.37
t(a)-1.08
p(a)0.86
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-3.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta5.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-7.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.18
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.10
Jensen alpha (a)-2.55
VaR(95%)0.91
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.94
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.18
Mean0.84
SD2.46
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.34
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.34
df1211
t0.73
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.57
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.25
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.57
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.25
Sortino ratio1.12
Upside Potential Ratio3.60
Upside part of mean2.69
Downside part of mean-1.85
Upside SD2.34
Downside SD0.75
N nonnegative terms1038
N negative terms174
N of observations1212
Mean of predictor0.48
Mean of criterion0.84
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion2.46
Covariance-0.09
r-0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.80
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.22
Mean Square Error5.98
DF error1210
t(b)-3.86
p(b)0.56
t(a)1.07
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.46
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.04
Jensen alpha (a)1.22
Mean-2.23
SD4.74
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.47
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.47
df1211
t-1.01
p0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.44
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.38
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.44
Sortino ratio-0.48
Upside Potential Ratio0.39
Upside part of mean1.82
Downside part of mean-4.04
Upside SD1.02
Downside SD4.63
N nonnegative terms1038
N negative terms174
N of observations1212
Mean of predictor0.42
Mean of criterion-2.23
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion4.74
Covariance-0.07
r-0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.64
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.96
Mean Square Error22.48
DF error1210
t(b)-1.58
p(b)0.52
t(a)-0.88
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-6.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.38
Treynor index (mean / b)3.46
Jensen alpha (a)-1.96
VaR(95%)0.39
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.46
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.05
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.37
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.98
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.37
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations55
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum4.33
Mean of quarter 10.78
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.27
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low13
Percentage of outliers low0.24
Mean of outliers low0.77
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.94
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-40.68
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.10
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.28
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.43
Number of observations1212
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum5.71
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low174
Percentage of outliers low0.14
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high135
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.09
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.10
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.56
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.07
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.72
Quartile 10.79
Median0.86
Quartile 30.93
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.72
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.14
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations3
Minimum0.78
Quartile 10.79
Median0.80
Quartile 30.90
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.78
Mean of quarter 20.80
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.11
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-371879392
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)1899
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.2%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.22
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.89
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.89
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.89
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.95
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.22
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.89
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.89
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.89
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.96
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 263 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
GLL long225May 19, 2010Aug 4, 2011($20,294)
PST long200May 19, 2010Oct 29, 2010($1,568)
GBP/JPY short100May 20, 2010Oct 21, 2010($23)
TBT long50May 19, 2010Jun 28, 2010($643)
EUR/USD short70May 20, 2010May 27, 2010($101)
GBP/JPY short600May 18, 2010May 19, 2010$64
GBP/JPY long1100May 14, 2010May 18, 2010($165)
EUR/JPY long700May 14, 2010May 14, 2010($2)
EUR/JPY long700May 13, 2010May 13, 2010($6)
EUR/JPY short600May 13, 2010May 13, 2010$6
EUR/JPY short600May 12, 2010May 13, 2010$32
EUR/JPY short730.6199646May 12, 2010May 12, 2010$15
EUR/JPY long730.6199646May 12, 2010May 12, 2010($1)
EUR/JPY long730.6199646May 12, 2010May 12, 2010$16
EUR/JPY long608.84998322May 11, 2010May 11, 2010$19
EUR/JPY long730.6199646May 10, 2010May 10, 2010($3)
EUR/JPY short730.6199646May 10, 2010May 10, 2010$13
EUR/JPY long426.19998932May 7, 2010May 8, 2010$61
GBP/JPY long304.43000793May 7, 2010May 7, 2010$14
EUR/JPY long426.19998932May 7, 2010May 7, 2010$19
EUR/JPY long426.19998932May 7, 2010May 7, 2010$25
GBP/JPY short182.66000748May 6, 2010May 7, 2010$5
EUR/JPY short182.66000748May 7, 2010May 7, 2010$7
GBP/JPY long121.77000046May 6, 2010May 6, 2010$13
GBP/JPY short121.77000046Mar 30, 2010May 6, 2010$51
NQ H0short3.04399991Mar 10, 2010Mar 11, 2010($648)
NQ H0short3.04399991Mar 5, 2010Mar 9, 2010($739)
NQ H0short3.04399991Mar 5, 2010Mar 5, 2010($709)
NQ H0short3.04399991Mar 2, 2010Mar 5, 2010($429)
NQ H0short4.262000084Feb 26, 2010Mar 1, 2010($1,221)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.