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EFI_30

Futures · Started Apr 2010

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-2.1%
Max Drawdown
47.8%
Trades
553
Win Trades
34.7%
Profit Factor
1.10
Win Months
10.7%

About this strategy

Fully Automated Intraday Trading System. EFI_30 trades European Equity Index Futures, mainly the DJ Eurostoxx 50 and the DAX Future, developped from the experience (10 Y+) of a very successful Equity Index Discretionary Trader.

The system includes 5 Long and 5 Short complementary Trading Patterns and their Associated Trading Strategies.

The guiding principle of our Trading Systems is described here
http://www.it-lyse.com/site/indexV2.jsp?id=141

EFI_30 has been set up on Collective2 on April 2010, but its trading signals have been enabled on December 2010.

EFI_30 Backtests :
http://www.it-lyse.com/site/col2log.jsp?email=col2@it-lyse.com&password=col2&lang=US

EFI_30 FAQs :
http://www.it-lyse.com/site/indexV2.jsp?id=148





Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2010-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.6-3.3
2011-3.95.914.8-0.310.212.2-16.631.4-10.3-2.1-8.611.641.4
2012-10.8-5.018.63.1-32.41.60.00.00.00.00.00.0-28.8
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.3-5.30.30.1-0.60.1-0.8-0.9-1.6-0.3-0.5-1.2-10.2
2015-2.8-0.5-1.31.4-1.00.7-0.60.9-0.0-0.9-1.51.5-4.1
2016-0.60.41.40.6-1.2-0.20.40.00.1-1.30.00.0-0.4
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.00.00.0-0.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began4/13/2010
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age200 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades553
# Profitable192
% Profitable34.7%
Avg trade duration3.4 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown47.8%
drawdown periodMay 08, 2012 - March 14, 2015
Annual Return (Compounded)-2.1%
Avg win$948
Avg loss$456

Ratios

W:L ratio1.11
Sharpe Ratio-0.23
Sortino Ratio-0.35
Calmar Ratio0.18

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.03
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life530.5%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-142.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-2.1%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)1.8%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity89.4%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss54.0%
Chance of 20% account loss23.5%
Chance of 30% account loss5.5%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated94.5%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$456
Avg Win$948
# Winners192
Sum Trade PL (losers)$164,658
Sum Trade PL (winners)$182,006
Num Months Winners23
# Losers361
% Winners34.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table198

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)206.27
Avg Position Time (hrs)3.44
Avg Trade Length0.10
Last Trade Ago5189

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta-0.02
Treynor Index0.44

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades40.57
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.76
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats24.94
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats26.49
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.27
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.29
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.03

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.07
SD0.22
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.31
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.30
df49
t0.62
p0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.66
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.27
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.66
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.26
Sortino ratio0.52
Upside Potential Ratio1.93
Upside part of mean0.25
Downside part of mean-0.18
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms13
N negative terms37
N of observations50
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.07
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.22
Covariance0.00
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error48
t(b)0.13
p(b)0.45
t(a)0.54
p(a)0.30
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.29
Treynor index (mean / b)2.43
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
Mean0.04
SD0.22
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.20
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.20
df49
t0.41
p0.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.76
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.16
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.76
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.16
Sortino ratio0.31
Upside Potential Ratio1.67
Upside part of mean0.23
Downside part of mean-0.19
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms13
N negative terms37
N of observations50
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.04
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.22
Covariance0.00
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.03
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error48
t(b)0.27
p(b)0.40
t(a)0.30
p(a)0.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.26
Treynor index (mean / b)0.78
Jensen alpha (a)0.03
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.09
Mean0.06
SD0.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.31
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.31
df1109
t0.65
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.64
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.27
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.64
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.27
Sortino ratio0.49
Upside Potential Ratio5.31
Upside part of mean0.67
Downside part of mean-0.61
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms275
N negative terms835
N of observations1110
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion0.06
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.20
Covariance0.00
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.04
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error1108
t(b)1.17
p(b)0.48
t(a)0.58
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.24
Treynor index (mean / b)2.02
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
Mean0.04
SD0.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.22
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.22
df1109
t0.45
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.17
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.74
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.17
Sortino ratio0.33
Upside Potential Ratio5.09
Upside part of mean0.66
Downside part of mean-0.61
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms275
N negative terms835
N of observations1110
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.04
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.20
Covariance0.00
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.04
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error1108
t(b)1.19
p(b)0.48
t(a)0.39
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.22
Treynor index (mean / b)1.38
Jensen alpha (a)0.04
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.04
SD0.01
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-3.01
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-2.99
df130
t-2.13
p0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-5.80
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.20
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-5.78
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.19
Sortino ratio-4.14
Upside Potential Ratio2.75
Upside part of mean0.02
Downside part of mean-0.06
Upside SD0.01
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms6
N negative terms125
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.51
Mean of criterion-0.04
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.01
Covariance0.00
r0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.04
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)0.53
p(b)0.47
t(a)-2.18
p(a)0.62
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.00
Treynor index (mean / b)-12.63
Jensen alpha (a)-0.04
Mean-0.04
SD0.01
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-3.01
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-3.00
df130
t-2.13
p0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-5.80
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.21
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-5.79
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.20
Sortino ratio-4.14
Upside Potential Ratio2.74
Upside part of mean0.02
Downside part of mean-0.06
Upside SD0.01
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms6
N negative terms125
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.49
Mean of criterion-0.04
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.01
Covariance0.00
r0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.04
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)0.51
p(b)0.47
t(a)-2.18
p(a)0.62
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.00
Treynor index (mean / b)-13.13
Jensen alpha (a)-0.04
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations50
Minimum0.80
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.21
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.08
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low7
Percentage of outliers low0.14
Mean of outliers low0.92
Number of outliers high9
Percentage of outliers high0.18
Mean of outliers high1.11
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.50
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.10
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.99
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)4.99
Number of observations1110
Minimum0.90
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.10
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low188
Percentage of outliers low0.17
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high185
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.98
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.36
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.54
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum1.00
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low13
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low1.00
Number of outliers high7
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.50
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.58
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.00

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations5
Minimum0.04
Quartile 10.06
Median0.07
Quartile 30.12
Maximum0.32
Mean of quarter 10.05
Mean of quarter 20.07
Mean of quarter 30.12
Mean of quarter 40.32
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.32
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations22
Minimum0
Quartile 10.01
Median0.04
Quartile 30.09
Maximum0.33
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.05
Mean of quarter 40.15
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high0.33
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.41
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.19
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.31
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.96
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.19
Expected Shortfall (regression method)3.07
Number of observations3
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.01
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)1040
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.08
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.07
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.23
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.23
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.63
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.08
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.07
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.22
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.47
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.98
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.01
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.01
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.83
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.83
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-5.01

Trading record

Placed 729 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
EX U2short5Jun 20, 2012Jun 20, 2012($888)
EX U2long3Jun 18, 2012Jun 18, 2012($579)
EX U2long1Jun 18, 2012Jun 18, 2012($8)
EX U2short1Jun 18, 2012Jun 18, 2012$14
EX U2long6Jun 15, 2012Jun 15, 2012$931
XG U2long1Jun 15, 2012Jun 15, 2012($552)
XG U2long1Jun 15, 2012Jun 15, 2012$617
XG M2long1Jun 14, 2012Jun 14, 2012$590
XG M2long1Jun 14, 2012Jun 14, 2012($103)
EX M2short4Jun 14, 2012Jun 14, 2012($859)
XG M2short1Jun 14, 2012Jun 14, 2012($1,245)
XG M2long1Jun 13, 2012Jun 13, 2012($1,490)
EX M2short2Jun 13, 2012Jun 13, 2012($38)
EX M2long1Jun 13, 2012Jun 13, 2012($247)
EX M2short8Jun 13, 2012Jun 13, 2012($673)
XG M2short1Jun 13, 2012Jun 13, 2012($674)
XG M2long1Jun 12, 2012Jun 12, 2012$645
EX M2short2Jun 12, 2012Jun 12, 2012$49
EX M2short2Jun 12, 2012Jun 12, 2012($190)
XG M2short1Jun 11, 2012Jun 11, 2012$1,922
EX M2long3Jun 11, 2012Jun 11, 2012($1,427)
EX M2long3Jun 8, 2012Jun 8, 2012($100)
EX M2short1Jun 8, 2012Jun 8, 2012($171)
XG M2long1Jun 7, 2012Jun 7, 2012$114
EX M2long3Jun 6, 2012Jun 6, 2012($111)
EX M2long3Jun 5, 2012Jun 5, 2012($165)
EX M2short4Jun 5, 2012Jun 5, 2012($293)
EX M2long3Jun 5, 2012Jun 5, 2012($481)
EX M2long6Jun 4, 2012Jun 4, 2012$1,029
XG M2short1Jun 1, 2012Jun 1, 2012$3,500

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.