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Stocks · Started Jul 2010

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-5.5%
Max Drawdown
72.5%
Trades
119
Win Trades
41.2%
Profit Factor
0.60
Win Months
4.1%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201013.52.34.2-10.5-7.95.75.4
2011-1.1-0.7-20.7-2.0-11.9-5.4-9.820.2-15.9-16.8-15.3-14.0-64.9
201211.0-7.20.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.03.5
20130.00.00.0-0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.0
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.0-0.00.00.00.00.04.30.00.04.3
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began7/11/2010
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age197 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades119
# Profitable49
% Profitable41.2%
Avg trade duration15.6 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown72.5%
drawdown periodSept 03, 2010 - Feb 15, 2012
Annual Return (Compounded)-5.5%
Avg win$1,524
Avg loss$1,883

Ratios

W:L ratio0.57
Sharpe Ratio-0.29
Sortino Ratio-0.38
Calmar Ratio-0.28

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.07
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life600.6%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-668.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-5.5%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-4.9%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity224.5%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,883
Avg Win$1,524
# Winners49
Sum Trade PL (losers)$131,787
Sum Trade PL (winners)$74,654
Num Months Winners12
# Losers70
% Winners41.2%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct1104

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table195

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)22399.63
Avg Position Time (hrs)373.33
Avg Trade Length15.60
Last Trade Ago5297

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta-0.08
Treynor Index0.22

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.08
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.03
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-3.74
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.04
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats58.55
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats80.58
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.88
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.12
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.27

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.19
SD0.25
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.74
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.73
df51
t-1.54
p0.93
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.22
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.68
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.23
Sortino ratio-0.78
Upside Potential Ratio0.39
Upside part of mean0.09
Downside part of mean-0.28
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.24
N nonnegative terms41
N negative terms11
N of observations52
Mean of predictor0.47
Mean of criterion-0.19
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.25
Covariance-0.01
r-0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.11
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.13
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error50
t(b)-0.71
p(b)0.76
t(a)-0.94
p(a)0.82
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.15
Treynor index (mean / b)1.67
Jensen alpha (a)-0.13
Mean-0.22
SD0.28
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.79
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.78
df51
t-1.65
p0.95
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.17
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.73
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.17
Sortino ratio-0.82
Upside Potential Ratio0.32
Upside part of mean0.09
Downside part of mean-0.31
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.27
N nonnegative terms41
N negative terms11
N of observations52
Mean of predictor0.44
Mean of criterion-0.22
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.28
Covariance-0.01
r-0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.17
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error50
t(b)-0.68
p(b)0.75
t(a)-1.07
p(a)0.85
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.15
Treynor index (mean / b)1.78
Jensen alpha (a)-0.17
VaR(95%)0.14
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.17
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
Mean-0.15
SD0.38
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.39
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.39
df1145
t-0.82
p0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.54
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.33
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.54
Sortino ratio-0.52
Upside Potential Ratio3.22
Upside part of mean0.92
Downside part of mean-1.07
Upside SD0.25
Downside SD0.28
N nonnegative terms965
N negative terms181
N of observations1146
Mean of predictor0.50
Mean of criterion-0.15
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0.38
Covariance0.00
r0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.17
Mean Square Error0.14
DF error1144
t(b)1.09
p(b)0.48
t(a)-0.92
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.52
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.19
Treynor index (mean / b)-4.10
Jensen alpha (a)-0.17
Mean-0.22
SD0.38
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.57
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.57
df1145
t-1.20
p0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.36
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.51
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.36
Sortino ratio-0.72
Upside Potential Ratio2.91
Upside part of mean0.89
Downside part of mean-1.11
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.31
N nonnegative terms965
N negative terms181
N of observations1146
Mean of predictor0.44
Mean of criterion-0.22
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion0.38
Covariance0.00
r0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.24
Mean Square Error0.15
DF error1144
t(b)1.08
p(b)0.48
t(a)-1.28
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.60
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.13
Treynor index (mean / b)-6.23
Jensen alpha (a)-0.24
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.33
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.26
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations52
Minimum0.70
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.16
Mean of quarter 10.91
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low11
Percentage of outliers low0.21
Mean of outliers low0.89
Number of outliers high12
Percentage of outliers high0.23
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-41.29
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.49
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.15
Number of observations1146
Minimum0.76
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.16
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low181
Percentage of outliers low0.16
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high164
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.15
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.37
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.67
Quartile 10.67
Median0.67
Quartile 30.67
Maximum0.67
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations6
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.02
Median0.07
Quartile 30.13
Maximum0.69
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.04
Mean of quarter 30.09
Mean of quarter 40.42
Inter Quartile Range0.11
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.69
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-378928224
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)530
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.14
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.20
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.30
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.18
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.14
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.20
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.29
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.48
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-4.08
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 155 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
AEM long1000Apr 4, 2011Mar 12, 2012($28,315)
HL long5000Mar 29, 2011Nov 25, 2011($17,205)
TZA long312Mar 16, 2011Oct 5, 2011$616
SNV long714Apr 4, 2011Sep 27, 2011($6,952)
DNN long4000Mar 29, 2011Sep 27, 2011($5,125)
ORI long2000Apr 4, 2011Apr 8, 2011($305)
TMV long600Mar 23, 2011Apr 4, 2011$1,135
FAZ long94Mar 24, 2011Mar 29, 2011($1,882)
STD long2000Mar 15, 2011Mar 21, 2011$575
TNA long5000Mar 15, 2011Mar 16, 2011($4,830)
TZA long63Mar 10, 2011Mar 15, 2011$1,713
FAZ long219Mar 10, 2011Mar 15, 2011$5,953
TIE long1000Mar 8, 2011Mar 10, 2011($905)
STD long1000Mar 8, 2011Mar 10, 2011($365)
TSCDY long1000Mar 8, 2011Mar 10, 2011($65)
TNA long4000Mar 8, 2011Mar 10, 2011($9,550)
SLW long1200Mar 8, 2011Mar 9, 2011($1,517)
FAZ long94Feb 23, 2011Mar 8, 2011$347
TZA long169Feb 28, 2011Mar 8, 2011$56
SLW long1200Feb 23, 2011Mar 8, 2011$3,895
TSCDY long3000Feb 17, 2011Mar 1, 2011($563)
TYO long1000Feb 23, 2011Feb 28, 2011($1,045)
TZA long125Feb 25, 2011Feb 28, 2011($2,623)
DZZ long5000Feb 22, 2011Feb 23, 2011($1,055)
TNA long1000Feb 23, 2011Feb 23, 2011($870)
CH long1000Feb 11, 2011Feb 23, 2011($875)
GSH long1000Feb 16, 2011Feb 22, 2011($765)
SLW long2000Feb 11, 2011Feb 22, 2011$12,815
TZA long156Feb 10, 2011Feb 11, 2011($5,769)
TZA long52Feb 8, 2011Feb 8, 2011($800)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.