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TSX

Futures · Started Aug 2010

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-1.0%
Max Drawdown
79.5%
Trades
203
Win Trades
66.5%
Profit Factor
1
Win Months
5.2%

About this strategy

* Copyright Notice* A subscription to TSX entitles one (1) person, the subscriber, to take the trades in his own accounts. If you are sharing your account, or any information from this site with others or trading others accounts based on these signals, you are in violation of copyright laws, subject to a penalty of up to $150,000 per incident. In other words, do NOT share any trade signals or commentary with anyone else. If you are trading others accounts you must sign them up as well.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20100.914.95.8-9.06.018.3
20115.4-2.3-1.20.93.89.8-1.2-51.523.03.80.00.0-28.4
20120.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began8/27/2010
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age195 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades203
# Profitable135
% Profitable66.5%
Avg trade duration10.2 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown79.5%
drawdown periodJuly 25, 2011 - Sept 05, 2011
Annual Return (Compounded)-1.0%
Avg win$876
Avg loss$1,672

Ratios

W:L ratio1.04
Sharpe Ratio-0.06
Sortino Ratio-0.10
Calmar Ratio0.02

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.04
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life609.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-628.5%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-1.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.5%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity78.5%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,672
Avg Win$876
# Winners135
Sum Trade PL (losers)$113,695
Sum Trade PL (winners)$118,257
Num Months Winners10
# Losers68
% Winners66.5%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table194

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)614.20
Avg Position Time (hrs)10.24
Avg Trade Length0.40
Last Trade Ago5487

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta0.05
Treynor Index-0.08

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.03
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.16
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.07
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades147.31
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)2.19
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats70.76
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats89.42
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.81
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.47
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.01

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.03
SD0.18
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.18
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.18
df76
t0.45
p0.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.60
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.95
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.60
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.95
Sortino ratio0.22
Upside Potential Ratio0.78
Upside part of mean0.11
Downside part of mean-0.08
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms73
N negative terms4
N of observations77
Mean of predictor0.33
Mean of criterion0.03
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.18
Covariance0.01
r0.17
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error75
t(b)1.48
p(b)0.07
t(a)-0.15
p(a)0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.14
Treynor index (mean / b)0.24
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
Mean0.01
SD0.21
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.07
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.06
df76
t0.17
p0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.71
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.84
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.71
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.84
Sortino ratio0.08
Upside Potential Ratio0.61
Upside part of mean0.11
Downside part of mean-0.09
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms73
N negative terms4
N of observations77
Mean of predictor0.30
Mean of criterion0.01
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.21
Covariance0.01
r0.19
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.18
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.04
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error75
t(b)1.65
p(b)0.05
t(a)-0.46
p(a)0.68
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.13
Treynor index (mean / b)0.08
Jensen alpha (a)-0.04
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.05
SD0.25
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.18
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.18
df1692
t0.46
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.59
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.95
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.59
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.95
Sortino ratio0.26
Upside Potential Ratio2.37
Upside part of mean0.42
Downside part of mean-0.37
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms1582
N negative terms111
N of observations1693
Mean of predictor0.34
Mean of criterion0.05
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.25
Covariance0.00
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.02
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error1691
t(b)2.92
p(b)0.45
t(a)0.22
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.21
Treynor index (mean / b)0.65
Jensen alpha (a)0.02
Mean0.01
SD0.26
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.05
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.05
df1692
t0.13
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.72
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.82
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.72
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.82
Sortino ratio0.07
Upside Potential Ratio2.03
Upside part of mean0.40
Downside part of mean-0.39
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms1582
N negative terms111
N of observations1693
Mean of predictor0.30
Mean of criterion0.01
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.26
Covariance0.00
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error1691
t(b)2.77
p(b)0.46
t(a)-0.07
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.19
Treynor index (mean / b)0.20
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.39
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.39
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.31
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.39
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations77
Minimum0.65
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.18
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low4
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.87
Number of outliers high10
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high1.07
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.72
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.28
Number of observations1693
Minimum0.68
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.31
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low111
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high141
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.51
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.34
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.03
Quartile 10.06
Median0.09
Quartile 30.24
Maximum0.38
Mean of quarter 10.03
Mean of quarter 20.09
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.38
Inter Quartile Range0.18
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations26
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.06
Maximum0.62
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.16
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high0.62
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.79
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.18
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.84
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.70
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.17
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-394059328
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)42
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.01
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.01
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.04
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.04
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.12
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.01
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.01
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.02
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.08
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.42
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 501 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
ES U1long10Sep 1, 2011Sep 7, 2011($3,255)
ES U1short10Aug 31, 2011Sep 1, 2011$9,045
ES U1long10Aug 18, 2011Aug 18, 2011($11,705)
ES U1short10Aug 15, 2011Aug 18, 2011$6,920
ES U1short2Aug 11, 2011Aug 11, 2011($1,966)
ES U1long5Aug 10, 2011Aug 10, 2011($3,440)
ES U1long5Aug 9, 2011Aug 9, 2011$3,148
ES U1long4Aug 8, 2011Aug 9, 2011$2,118
ES U1long5Aug 8, 2011Aug 8, 2011($9,853)
ES U1long5Aug 8, 2011Aug 8, 2011$2,460
ES U1long5Aug 5, 2011Aug 5, 2011($103)
ES U1long5Aug 5, 2011Aug 5, 2011($3,453)
ES U1long5Aug 5, 2011Aug 5, 2011$2,335
ES U1long4Aug 5, 2011Aug 5, 2011$1,718
ES U1long16Aug 2, 2011Aug 4, 2011($19,453)
ES U1long4Aug 2, 2011Aug 2, 2011$1,968
ES U1long7Jul 26, 2011Aug 1, 2011($9,931)
ES U1short1Jul 25, 2011Jul 26, 2011($108)
ES U1long2Jul 25, 2011Jul 25, 2011$447
ES U1long1Jul 24, 2011Jul 24, 2011$30
ES U1short1Jul 22, 2011Jul 24, 2011$792
ES U1short1Jul 21, 2011Jul 22, 2011$342
NQ U1long1Jul 20, 2011Jul 21, 2011$397
ES U1long2Jul 20, 2011Jul 20, 2011$959
ES U1long2Jul 20, 2011Jul 20, 2011($383)
ES U1long9Jul 14, 2011Jul 19, 2011$4,328
ES U1long2Jul 14, 2011Jul 14, 2011($524)
ES U1long4Jul 14, 2011Jul 14, 2011$543
ES U1long10Jul 11, 2011Jul 14, 2011($63)
ES U1short4Jun 30, 2011Jul 11, 2011($1,057)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.