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Stock Opportunities

Stocks · Started Oct 2010

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
1.3%
Max Drawdown
31.0%
Trades
73
Win Trades
45.2%
Profit Factor
1.50
Win Months
2.1%

About this strategy

Finds low priced stocks with good fundamentals that have been beaten down. The trading method will hold 10 positions and should do it's the best at the beginning of an up market. The stocks selected will have a fairly high value and safety but rated timing for the stock will seem poor.

The system will be managed with a 50 percent gain and 20 percent loss with positions to be opened or closed at the Next Days OPEN. When the market seems to be falling all positions will be closed and the system will wait for a better time to reenter the market.

The stocks selected will be those that have options available so the subscriber has the opportunity to use an option strategy.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201027.73.418.156.0
20112.7-5.4-5.5-6.3-5.7-1.3-0.7-0.3-0.30.00.00.0-21.0
20120.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began10/3/2010
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age194 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades73
# Profitable33
% Profitable45.2%
Avg trade duration19.4 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown31.0%
drawdown periodJan 13, 2011 - Sept 30, 2011
Annual Return (Compounded)1.3%
Avg win$306
Avg loss$169

Ratios

W:L ratio1.49
Sharpe Ratio-0.05
Sortino Ratio-0.07
Calmar Ratio0.04

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.08
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life558.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-539.1%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)1.3%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)1.8%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity44.9%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$169
Avg Win$306
# Winners33
Sum Trade PL (losers)$6,763
Sum Trade PL (winners)$10,096
Num Months Winners5
# Losers40
% Winners45.2%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table192

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)27905.35
Avg Position Time (hrs)465.09
Avg Trade Length19.40
Last Trade Ago5600

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.04
Treynor Index-0.03

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades7.88
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.03
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats11.93
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats77.68
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.41
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.04
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.13

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.02
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.13
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.13
df50
t0.27
p0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.82
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.08
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.82
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.08
Sortino ratio0.23
Upside Potential Ratio1.07
Upside part of mean0.07
Downside part of mean-0.06
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms46
N negative terms5
N of observations51
Mean of predictor0.46
Mean of criterion0.02
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance0.00
r0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.01
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error49
t(b)0.20
p(b)0.42
t(a)0.16
p(a)0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.14
Treynor index (mean / b)1.35
Jensen alpha (a)0.01
Mean0.01
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.08
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.08
df50
t0.16
p0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.87
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.03
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.87
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.03
Sortino ratio0.13
Upside Potential Ratio0.95
Upside part of mean0.07
Downside part of mean-0.06
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms46
N negative terms5
N of observations51
Mean of predictor0.42
Mean of criterion0.01
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance0.00
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.00
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error49
t(b)0.26
p(b)0.40
t(a)0.04
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.13
Treynor index (mean / b)0.57
Jensen alpha (a)0.00
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.05
SD0.26
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.17
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.17
df1122
t0.35
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.78
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.12
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.78
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.12
Sortino ratio0.23
Upside Potential Ratio2.59
Upside part of mean0.51
Downside part of mean-0.46
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms1041
N negative terms82
N of observations1123
Mean of predictor0.48
Mean of criterion0.05
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion0.26
Covariance0.02
r0.25
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.21
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.06
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error1121
t(b)8.59
p(b)0.34
t(a)-0.46
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.19
Treynor index (mean / b)0.21
Jensen alpha (a)-0.06
Mean0.01
SD0.27
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.03
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.03
df1122
t0.07
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.91
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.98
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.91
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.98
Sortino ratio0.04
Upside Potential Ratio2.31
Upside part of mean0.49
Downside part of mean-0.48
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms1041
N negative terms82
N of observations1123
Mean of predictor0.43
Mean of criterion0.01
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion0.27
Covariance0.02
r0.24
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.21
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.08
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error1121
t(b)8.40
p(b)0.35
t(a)-0.64
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.17
Treynor index (mean / b)0.04
Jensen alpha (a)-0.08
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.28
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.39
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.20
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.39
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations51
Minimum0.89
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.18
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low5
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.08
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.02
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.08
Number of observations1123
Minimum0.76
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.17
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low82
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high88
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.37
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.50
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.22
Quartile 10.22
Median0.22
Quartile 30.22
Maximum0.22
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations12
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.04
Quartile 30.15
Maximum0.26
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.09
Mean of quarter 40.22
Inter Quartile Range0.14
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-59.21
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.23
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-2.99
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.34
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.34
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-367675296
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)260
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.01
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.01
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.04
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.14
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.01
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.01
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.03
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.04
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.27
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 75 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
TSN long108May 13, 2011Jun 3, 2011($56)
BHE long117Apr 29, 2011May 23, 2011($101)
AMD long226May 3, 2011May 17, 2011($104)
SMTX long900May 11, 2011May 16, 2011($203)
BSX long276May 10, 2011May 10, 2011($105)
YONG long370Apr 21, 2011May 9, 2011($203)
NSU long392Apr 7, 2011May 3, 2011($259)
NANO long118Apr 29, 2011May 2, 2011($102)
DEER long211Apr 21, 2011Apr 21, 2011($44)
CNO long250Apr 7, 2011Apr 18, 2011($210)
FINL long109Mar 25, 2011Apr 13, 2011$170
TQNT long154Mar 28, 2011Apr 12, 2011($206)
POL long282Mar 28, 2011Apr 11, 2011$15
USMO long137Mar 25, 2011Apr 8, 2011$60
ACAS long213Mar 28, 2011Apr 8, 2011$51
ENTG long234Mar 25, 2011Apr 8, 2011($99)
OME long140Mar 25, 2011Apr 8, 2011$1
THC long69Mar 28, 2011Apr 6, 2011$76
PUDA long160Mar 31, 2011Apr 4, 2011($123)
MSPD long230Mar 25, 2011Apr 4, 2011($145)
CNXT long799Feb 23, 2011Mar 15, 2011($13)
FCAL long532Mar 14, 2011Mar 15, 2011($21)
CGR long770Mar 8, 2011Mar 9, 2011($108)
SMOD long445Feb 9, 2011Mar 7, 2011($343)
ACET long388Feb 4, 2011Mar 4, 2011($338)
FLEX long380Feb 23, 2011Mar 2, 2011($85)
CPE long425Feb 8, 2011Mar 1, 2011$200
RFMD long477Feb 22, 2011Feb 23, 2011($246)
PLAB long359Feb 15, 2011Feb 23, 2011$50
EMKR long207Feb 22, 2011Feb 22, 2011($155)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.