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FX Crashthrough

Forex · Started Dec 2010

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-5.6%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
23
Win Trades
39.1%
Profit Factor
0.50
Win Months
39.2%

About this strategy

Computer algorithm of the FX Crashthrough system. Trades EURUSD hourly chart

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20100.30.3
201113.512.910.518.0-10.2-4.71.44.8-23.712.9-17.6-9.6-2.4
20125.010.1-3.9-3.7-34.017.4-20.018.120.10.62.09.76.0
20139.0-10.8-10.46.9-4.63.510.1-0.811.84.3-2.45.720.8
2014-6.98.00.51.3-6.11.6-8.4-10.7-18.9-6.7-2.9-17.7-51.6
2015-56.8-15.3-66.6106.5-16.863.0-21.952.1-6.7-30.1-99.310975.0-79.5
2016-3.2-21.1217.711.3-34.9-11.913.7-2.79.4-40.0-107.1-319.6-133.4
2017-268.4-123.0-189.1577.9129.743.840.75.3-6.4-7.624.08.7-1435.2
201836.6-15.96.8-14.1-28.1-10.412.6-7.3-5.4-18.4-10.821.6-40.8
2019-4.3-9.6-17.8-11.211.90.0-35.0-38.960.9-3.27.5-39.5
2020-18.86.3-26.4-34.785.752.993.47.3-7.60.813.925.7226.1
2021-8.17.3-31.035.94.9-18.6-7.40.3-6.9-11.7-37.217.5-55.6
2022-26.6-0.45.9-112.8-307.7-212.1-175.2-43.2-59.0-30.2-67.4-103.1-99.0
20232698.6-121.5-591.477.3-74.7250.715.2-55.7-123.9-32.0-669.034.95660.3
2024-47.8-1.4-22.2-32.7121.9-73.6220.5166.9-6.3-55.7-187.6-8.9-153.4
2025-17.8-22.1-196.0270.7-0.951.7-6.8-2.70.00.00.00.0-545.3
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began12/6/2010
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age192 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades23
# Profitable9
% Profitable39.1%
Avg trade duration231.5 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodDec 28, 2022 - Jan 10, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)-5.6%
Avg win$2,832
Avg loss$3,835

Ratios

W:L ratio0.47
Sharpe Ratio0.04
Sortino Ratio0.05
Calmar Ratio-0.22

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.03
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life517.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-586.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-5.6%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-5.1%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity330.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated48.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$3,835
Avg Win$2,832
# Winners9
Sum Trade PL (losers)$53,690
Sum Trade PL (winners)$25,486
Num Months Winners35
# Losers14
% Winners39.1%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table72

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)333353.50
Avg Position Time (hrs)5555.89
Avg Trade Length231.50
Last Trade Ago386

Regression

Alpha0
Beta2500.67
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-0.64
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.48
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats9.30
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats32.69
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.23
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-0.40
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-1.55

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean1012.93
SD1934.77
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.52
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.51
df43
t1.00
p0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.55
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.51
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.54
Sortino ratio1022.99
Upside Potential Ratio1024.83
Upside part of mean1014.75
Downside part of mean-1.82
Upside SD1934.88
Downside SD0.99
N nonnegative terms22
N negative terms22
N of observations44
Mean of predictor0.51
Mean of criterion1012.93
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion1934.77
Covariance-32.73
r-0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)-460.30
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1248.97
Mean Square Error3817024.25
DF error42
t(b)-0.41
p(b)0.66
t(a)1.07
p(a)0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2715.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1794.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1112.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3610.43
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.20
Jensen alpha (a)1248.97
Mean-0.25
SD7.02
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.04
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.04
df43
t-0.07
p0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.99
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.06
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.99
Sortino ratio-0.05
Upside Potential Ratio0.88
Upside part of mean4.62
Downside part of mean-4.87
Upside SD4.53
Downside SD5.25
N nonnegative terms22
N negative terms22
N of observations44
Mean of predictor0.47
Mean of criterion-0.25
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion7.02
Covariance0.49
r0.28
b (slope, estimate of beta)7.62
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-3.84
Mean Square Error46.59
DF error42
t(b)1.86
p(b)0.03
t(a)-0.95
p(a)0.83
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.64
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta15.89
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-12.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha4.34
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.03
Jensen alpha (a)-3.84
VaR(95%)0.97
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.98
VaR(95%)0.35
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.66
Mean2417.00
SD3375.76
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.72
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.72
df974
t1.38
p0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.73
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.30
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.73
Sortino ratio1125.39
Upside Potential Ratio1131.39
Upside part of mean2429.88
Downside part of mean-12.89
Upside SD3377.33
Downside SD2.15
N nonnegative terms508
N negative terms467
N of observations975
Mean of predictor0.55
Mean of criterion2417.00
SD of predictor0.35
SD of criterion3375.76
Covariance-104.33
r-0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)-846.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)2884.53
Mean Square Error11319135
DF error973
t(b)-2.76
p(b)1.00
t(a)1.65
p(a)0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1448.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-243.58
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-554.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha6323.19
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.86
Jensen alpha (a)2884.53
Mean-0.25
SD11.68
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.02
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.02
df974
t-0.04
p0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.99
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.04
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.99
Sortino ratio-0.03
Upside Potential Ratio2.71
Upside part of mean23.01
Downside part of mean-23.26
Upside SD8.01
Downside SD8.49
N nonnegative terms508
N negative terms467
N of observations975
Mean of predictor0.49
Mean of criterion-0.25
SD of predictor0.36
SD of criterion11.68
Covariance0.21
r0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.61
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-1.04
Mean Square Error136.12
DF error973
t(b)1.55
p(b)0.06
t(a)-0.17
p(a)0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta3.66
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-12.95
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha10.87
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.16
Jensen alpha (a)-1.04
VaR(95%)0.69
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.77
VaR(95%)0.11
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.23
Mean13674.02
SD8739.83
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.56
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.56
df130
t1.11
p0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.34
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.22
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.33
Sortino ratio4379.35
Upside Potential Ratio4386.13
Upside part of mean13695.21
Downside part of mean-21.18
Upside SD8747.30
Downside SD3.12
N nonnegative terms83
N negative terms48
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.48
Mean of criterion13674.02
SD of predictor0.38
SD of criterion8739.83
Covariance-851.25
r-0.26
b (slope, estimate of beta)-5903.20
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)22433.73
Mean Square Error71912688
DF error129
t(b)-3.01
p(b)0.66
t(a)1.82
p(a)0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-9778.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2028.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1980.99
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha46848.46
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.32
Jensen alpha (a)22433.73
Mean4.86
SD22.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.22
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.22
df130
t0.16
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.99
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.55
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.99
Sortino ratio0.32
Upside Potential Ratio3.68
Upside part of mean56.26
Downside part of mean-51.40
Upside SD15.92
Downside SD15.28
N nonnegative terms83
N negative terms48
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.41
Mean of criterion4.86
SD of predictor0.37
SD of criterion22.15
Covariance-1.25
r-0.15
b (slope, estimate of beta)-8.99
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)17.53
Mean Square Error483.11
DF error129
t(b)-1.74
p(b)0.60
t(a)0.55
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-19.21
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-45.64
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha80.70
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.54
Jensen alpha (a)17.53
VaR(95%)0.89
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.93
VaR(95%)0.15
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.33

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations44
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.75
Median1.00
Quartile 31.32
Maximum3706
Mean of quarter 10.49
Mean of quarter 20.90
Mean of quarter 31.14
Mean of quarter 4339.11
Inter Quartile Range0.57
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high744.12
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.04
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.51
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.69
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.12
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.58
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.83
Number of observations975
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.96
Median1
Quartile 31.04
Maximum6148.67
Mean of quarter 10.82
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 438.05
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low82
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.63
Number of outliers high93
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high98.07
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.67
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.18
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.59
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.13
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.15
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.24
Number of observations131
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.91
Median1
Quartile 31.13
Maximum6148.67
Mean of quarter 10.70
Mean of quarter 20.98
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 4208.48
Inter Quartile Range0.22
Number outliers low7
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.30
Number of outliers high13
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high527.31
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.13
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.25
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.38
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.24
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.27
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.35

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.09
Quartile 10.31
Median0.54
Quartile 30.77
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.09
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.46
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations6
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.08
Quartile 30.28
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.05
Mean of quarter 30.10
Mean of quarter 40.67
Inter Quartile Range0.26
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations8
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.08
Median0.46
Quartile 30.85
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.19
Mean of quarter 30.73
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.77
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-393533824
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)744
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.8%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.17
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.22
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.22
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.22
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.23
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.16
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.22
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.22
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.33
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.29
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)20.68
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)127.60
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)127.61
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs127.61
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal136.79

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
EUR/USD long600Feb 15, 2011Aug 21, 2025($41,266)
EUR/USD long200Feb 14, 2011Feb 15, 2011($972)
EUR/USD short400Feb 14, 2011Feb 14, 2011($1,672)
EUR/USD long200Feb 14, 2011Feb 14, 2011($1,256)
EUR/USD short600Feb 10, 2011Feb 14, 2011$5,920
EUR/USD long400Feb 9, 2011Feb 10, 2011($660)
EUR/USD short200Feb 9, 2011Feb 9, 2011($644)
EUR/USD long600Feb 7, 2011Feb 9, 2011$304
EUR/USD short200Feb 7, 2011Feb 7, 2011($1,254)
EUR/USD long200Feb 7, 2011Feb 7, 2011($326)
EUR/USD short200Feb 3, 2011Feb 6, 2011$2,238
EUR/USD long600Jan 31, 2011Feb 2, 2011$5,102
EUR/USD short200Jan 28, 2011Jan 31, 2011($628)
EUR/USD long200Jan 18, 2011Jan 19, 2011$2,108
EUR/USD long200Jan 11, 2011Jan 14, 2011$4,253
EUR/USD long200Dec 29, 2010Dec 30, 2010$1,068
EUR/USD short200Dec 28, 2010Dec 29, 2010($250)
EUR/USD long200Dec 23, 2010Dec 24, 2010($214)
EUR/USD long200Dec 23, 2010Dec 23, 2010($1,466)
EUR/USD long200Dec 22, 2010Dec 22, 2010($1,610)
EUR/USD long200Dec 16, 2010Dec 17, 2010($1,472)
EUR/USD long400Dec 13, 2010Dec 14, 2010$4,352
EUR/USD short300Dec 7, 2010Dec 9, 2010$140

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.