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TSX Mini

Futures · Started Dec 2010

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
6.8%
Max Drawdown
42.6%
Trades
388
Win Trades
68.3%
Profit Factor
1.30
Win Months
16.8%

About this strategy

* Copyright Notice* A subscription to TSX Mini entitles one (1) person, the subscriber, to take the trades in his own accounts. If you are sharing your account, or any information from this site with others or trading others accounts based on these signals, you are in violation of copyright laws, subject to a penalty of up to $150,000 per incident. In other words, do NOT share any trade signals or commentary with anyone else. If you are trading others accounts you must sign up them up as well.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20105.85.8
201111.9-7.2-4.64.311.711.3-6.60.6-0.0-16.527.26.436.5
201217.212.1-0.46.4-10.915.28.72.76.99.4-0.75.795.8
20137.10.6-1.2-6.9-12.5-1.58.13.2-3.71.415.1-9.3-2.8
201410.6-2.68.9-1.4-4.43.75.58.63.1-5.3-0.3-9.016.4
20150.91.9-13.8-4.0-0.4-0.4-0.44.50.00.00.00.0-12.1
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began12/15/2010
Suggested Minimum Capital$20,000
Age192 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades388
# Profitable265
% Profitable68.3%
Avg trade duration1.0 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown42.6%
drawdown periodJuly 25, 2011 - Aug 05, 2011
Annual Return (Compounded)6.8%
Avg win$922
Avg loss$1,478

Ratios

W:L ratio1.34
Sharpe Ratio0.28
Sortino Ratio0.42
Calmar Ratio0.77

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.06
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life516.1%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-338.6%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)6.8%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)9.4%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity40.3%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,478
Avg Win$922
# Winners265
Sum Trade PL (losers)$181,746
Sum Trade PL (winners)$244,329
Num Months Winners32
# Losers123
% Winners68.3%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table190

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)1487.40
Avg Position Time (hrs)24.79
Avg Trade Length1
Last Trade Ago4053

Regression

Alpha0.02
Beta0.07
Treynor Index0.24

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.03
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.05
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.05
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades7.12
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.77
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats39.63
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats60.43
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.79
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.16
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.14

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.25
SD0.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.08
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.07
df73
t2.68
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.88
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.26
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.88
Sortino ratio2.21
Upside Potential Ratio3.48
Upside part of mean0.39
Downside part of mean-0.14
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms57
N negative terms17
N of observations74
Mean of predictor0.31
Mean of criterion0.25
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.23
Covariance0.00
r0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.22
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error72
t(b)0.72
p(b)0.24
t(a)2.16
p(a)0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.42
Treynor index (mean / b)2.66
Jensen alpha (a)0.22
Mean0.22
SD0.22
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.99
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.98
df73
t2.46
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.79
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.17
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.78
Sortino ratio1.84
Upside Potential Ratio3.08
Upside part of mean0.37
Downside part of mean-0.15
Upside SD0.20
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms57
N negative terms17
N of observations74
Mean of predictor0.29
Mean of criterion0.22
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.22
Covariance0.00
r0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.12
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.19
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error72
t(b)0.91
p(b)0.18
t(a)1.93
p(a)0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.38
Treynor index (mean / b)1.90
Jensen alpha (a)0.19
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean0.27
SD0.31
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.86
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.86
df1617
t2.13
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.65
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.07
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.65
Sortino ratio1.34
Upside Potential Ratio5.46
Upside part of mean1.09
Downside part of mean-0.82
Upside SD0.24
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms1334
N negative terms284
N of observations1618
Mean of predictor0.32
Mean of criterion0.27
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.31
Covariance0.01
r0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.23
Mean Square Error0.10
DF error1616
t(b)4.16
p(b)0.45
t(a)1.80
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.47
Treynor index (mean / b)2.05
Jensen alpha (a)0.23
Mean0.22
SD0.31
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.71
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.71
df1617
t1.76
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.50
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.08
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.50
Sortino ratio1.05
Upside Potential Ratio5.09
Upside part of mean1.06
Downside part of mean-0.84
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms1334
N negative terms284
N of observations1618
Mean of predictor0.29
Mean of criterion0.22
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.31
Covariance0.01
r0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.18
Mean Square Error0.10
DF error1616
t(b)4.31
p(b)0.45
t(a)1.45
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.43
Treynor index (mean / b)1.64
Jensen alpha (a)0.18
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.39
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.38
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.32
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.37
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations74
Minimum0.81
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.05
Maximum1.24
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 41.11
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.86
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.21
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.17
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.08
Number of observations1618
Minimum0.82
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.18
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low283
Percentage of outliers low0.17
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high403
Percentage of outliers high0.25
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.38
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.36
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations8
Minimum0.03
Quartile 10.06
Median0.07
Quartile 30.16
Maximum0.19
Mean of quarter 10.04
Mean of quarter 20.07
Mean of quarter 30.11
Mean of quarter 40.18
Inter Quartile Range0.10
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations52
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.06
Maximum0.32
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.16
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high7
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high0.22
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.42
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.16
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.19
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.10
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.17
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.22
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-402976544
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)11
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.47
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.25
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.32
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.36
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.29
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.47
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.25
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.77
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.50
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal6.48
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 477 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
ES U5long5Aug 7, 2015Aug 7, 2015$2,460
ES M5long4Apr 28, 2015Apr 28, 2015$1,318
ES M5long4Apr 17, 2015Apr 17, 2015($3,332)
ES H5long4Mar 10, 2015Mar 10, 2015($3,432)
ES H5long4Mar 6, 2015Mar 6, 2015($3,382)
ES H5long4Mar 4, 2015Mar 5, 2015$918
ES H5long4Feb 26, 2015Mar 4, 2015($3,320)
ES H5long4Feb 9, 2015Feb 10, 2015$1,866
ES H5long4Jan 14, 2015Jan 14, 2015$1,778
ES H5long4Jan 14, 2015Jan 14, 2015$1,968
ES H5long4Jan 12, 2015Jan 13, 2015$1,843
ES H5long4Jan 6, 2015Jan 7, 2015$1,968
ES H5long4Jan 6, 2015Jan 6, 2015($3,182)
ES H5long4Jan 2, 2015Jan 5, 2015($3,432)
ES H5long4Dec 30, 2014Dec 31, 2014($3,332)
ES H5long4Dec 29, 2014Dec 29, 2014$1,688
ES H5long4Dec 16, 2014Dec 17, 2014$168
ES H5long4Dec 16, 2014Dec 16, 2014$1,968
ES H5long4Dec 15, 2014Dec 16, 2014($3,372)
ES H5long4Dec 14, 2014Dec 14, 2014$1,828
ES H5long4Dec 12, 2014Dec 12, 2014($3,332)
ES Z4long4Dec 10, 2014Dec 11, 2014$1,918
ES Z4long4Dec 9, 2014Dec 9, 2014($3,432)
ES Z4long3Nov 28, 2014Nov 30, 2014($1,344)
ES Z4long3Nov 20, 2014Nov 20, 2014$1,373
ES Z4long3Oct 14, 2014Oct 15, 2014($2,482)
ES Z4long7Oct 13, 2014Oct 13, 2014($5,729)
ES Z4long4Oct 13, 2014Oct 13, 2014$1,458
ES Z4long4Oct 12, 2014Oct 12, 2014($85)
ES Z4long4Oct 10, 2014Oct 10, 2014$1,968

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.