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Futures Trader Daily Mini

Futures · Started Dec 2010

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
3.9%
Max Drawdown
69.4%
Trades
1182
Win Trades
43.9%
Profit Factor
1.10
Win Months
16.9%

About this strategy

Note: Price is to prevent new subscribers until system stabilizes (while remaining visible to the public).
Futures Trader Daily Mini is a scaled down version of Futures Trader Daily. See the Futures Trader Daily system for more information.
http://www.collective2.com/cgi-perl/system52737021

The only difference between this system and Futures Trader Daily is that this system (Futures Trader Daily Mini) is designed to be traded with a $50,000 initial account size, while Futures Trader Daily is designed to be traded with a $100,000 initial account size.

Please read all forum postings on the Futures Trader Daily forum before subscribing.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201023.123.1
20119.129.8-17.717.4-21.3-10.616.020.63.3-30.8-21.64.9-20.9
2012-2.42.9-12.1-16.939.4-18.960.4-4.3-16.0-10.34.02.82.5
2013-7.6-20.73.06.46.337.3-3.430.311.6-0.8-9.610.863.4
2014-6.514.910.1-0.7-3.44.8-0.5-0.5-0.9-0.2-0.1-0.615.5
2015-1.4-0.2-0.70.8-1.60.4-0.30.5-0.2-0.3-0.70.5-3.3
2016-0.10.00.80.2-0.5-0.10.11.20.1-0.60.00.01.2
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.20.0-0.2
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began12/19/2010
Suggested Minimum Capital$30,422
Age192 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades1182
# Profitable519
% Profitable43.9%
Avg trade duration5.2 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown69.4%
drawdown periodSept 05, 2011 - April 26, 2012
Annual Return (Compounded)3.9%
Avg win$759
Avg loss$529

Ratios

W:L ratio1.12
Sharpe Ratio0.17
Sortino Ratio0.25
Calmar Ratio0.17

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.04
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life507.1%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-431.6%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)3.9%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)5.8%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity13.2%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.8%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$529
Avg Win$759
# Winners519
Sum Trade PL (losers)$350,720
Sum Trade PL (winners)$393,748
Num Months Winners33
# Losers663
% Winners43.9%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table190

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)7514.13
Avg Position Time (hrs)125.24
Avg Trade Length5.20
Last Trade Ago4460

Regression

Alpha0.02
Beta-0.06
Treynor Index-0.22

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades17.62
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.27
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats39.09
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats52.45
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.35
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.16
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.06

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.13
SD0.30
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.45
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.45
df96
t1.29
p0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.14
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.24
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.14
Sortino ratio0.80
Upside Potential Ratio1.98
Upside part of mean0.33
Downside part of mean-0.20
Upside SD0.25
Downside SD0.17
N nonnegative terms62
N negative terms35
N of observations97
Mean of predictor0.23
Mean of criterion0.13
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.30
Covariance-0.00
r-0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.10
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.16
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error95
t(b)-0.65
p(b)0.74
t(a)1.42
p(a)0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.38
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.31
Jensen alpha (a)0.16
Mean0.09
SD0.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.32
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.31
df96
t0.90
p0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.01
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.38
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.00
Sortino ratio0.49
Upside Potential Ratio1.63
Upside part of mean0.30
Downside part of mean-0.21
Upside SD0.22
Downside SD0.19
N nonnegative terms62
N negative terms35
N of observations97
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion0.09
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.29
Covariance-0.00
r-0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.11
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error95
t(b)-0.56
p(b)0.71
t(a)1.02
p(a)0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.32
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.04
Jensen alpha (a)0.11
VaR(95%)0.12
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.15
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
Mean0.15
SD0.34
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.44
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.44
df2129
t1.24
p0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.12
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.25
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.12
Sortino ratio0.68
Upside Potential Ratio5.53
Upside part of mean1.22
Downside part of mean-1.07
Upside SD0.26
Downside SD0.22
N nonnegative terms1358
N negative terms772
N of observations2130
Mean of predictor0.25
Mean of criterion0.15
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.34
Covariance0.00
r0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.14
Mean Square Error0.12
DF error2128
t(b)1.51
p(b)0.07
t(a)1.14
p(a)0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.37
Treynor index (mean / b)2.95
Jensen alpha (a)0.14
Mean0.09
SD0.34
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.27
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.27
df2129
t0.76
p0.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.96
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.42
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.96
Sortino ratio0.39
Upside Potential Ratio5.13
Upside part of mean1.19
Downside part of mean-1.10
Upside SD0.25
Downside SD0.23
N nonnegative terms1358
N negative terms772
N of observations2130
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion0.09
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.34
Covariance0.00
r0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.05
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.08
Mean Square Error0.12
DF error2128
t(b)1.56
p(b)0.06
t(a)0.67
p(a)0.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.31
Treynor index (mean / b)1.78
Jensen alpha (a)0.08
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.40
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.39
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.32
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.38
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations97
Minimum0.72
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.33
Mean of quarter 10.94
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.11
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low15
Percentage of outliers low0.15
Mean of outliers low0.90
Number of outliers high20
Percentage of outliers high0.21
Mean of outliers high1.13
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.20
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.83
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.36
Number of observations2130
Minimum0.81
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.25
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low406
Percentage of outliers low0.19
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high392
Percentage of outliers high0.18
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.80
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.05
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.34
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations6
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.04
Median0.05
Quartile 30.16
Maximum0.45
Mean of quarter 10.02
Mean of quarter 20.05
Mean of quarter 30.06
Mean of quarter 40.32
Inter Quartile Range0.12
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.45
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations20
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.03
Median0.08
Quartile 30.14
Maximum0.57
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.06
Mean of quarter 30.11
Mean of quarter 40.31
Inter Quartile Range0.11
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high0.50
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.44
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.36
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.67
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.33
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.26
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-413444832
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)234
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.14
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.10
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.21
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.30
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.63
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.14
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.10
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.17
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.31
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.27
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 875 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
LG U4long1Jun 23, 2014Jun 27, 2014$1,135
EZ U4long1Jun 23, 2014Jun 27, 2014$14
O U4long1Jun 19, 2014Jun 26, 2014($383)
TY U4long1Jun 24, 2014Jun 26, 2014$664
SM Q4long1Jun 24, 2014Jun 26, 2014$842
US U4long1Jun 19, 2014Jun 26, 2014$773
S Q4long1Jun 26, 2014Jun 26, 2014$267
BP U4long1Jun 12, 2014Jun 26, 2014$886
W U4short1Jun 24, 2014Jun 26, 2014($483)
HE N4long1Jun 23, 2014Jun 25, 2014$52
KW U4short1Jun 24, 2014Jun 25, 2014($296)
HE N4long1Jun 18, 2014Jun 23, 2014$12
W N4short1Jun 20, 2014Jun 22, 2014($283)
QPL N4long1Jun 19, 2014Jun 20, 2014($208)
LG U4long1Jun 18, 2014Jun 20, 2014($215)
US U4long1Jun 16, 2014Jun 17, 2014($633)
HE N4long1Jun 12, 2014Jun 16, 2014$112
RS N4short1Jun 12, 2014Jun 13, 2014($240)
W N4short1Jun 10, 2014Jun 13, 2014$780
US U4long1Jun 9, 2014Jun 13, 2014($289)
TY U4long1Jun 12, 2014Jun 13, 2014($227)
SB N4short1Jun 12, 2014Jun 13, 2014($176)
EZ U4long1Jun 10, 2014Jun 13, 2014$14
JE U4short1Jun 12, 2014Jun 12, 2014($146)
ME U4short1Jun 10, 2014Jun 12, 2014($246)
QPA U4long1Jun 10, 2014Jun 12, 2014($48)
ME M4short1Jun 5, 2014Jun 10, 2014$173
QW Q4short1Jun 5, 2014Jun 10, 2014($253)
LRC N4short1Jun 3, 2014Jun 6, 2014($188)
W N4short1Jun 5, 2014Jun 6, 2014($208)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.