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z-Trader Commodities

Futures · Started Dec 2010

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-7.7%
Max Drawdown
77.7%
Trades
61
Win Trades
36.1%
Profit Factor
0.60
Win Months
3.2%

About this strategy

Applies the same methodology as the fully-diversified zFutures program -- to a subset of the markets (to achieve a lower initial account size). z-Trader Commodities, combined with z-Trader Financials, will track zFutures, at a slightly higher level of leverage.

Due to the focused portfolio, we will roll this portfolio into a leveraged Diversified Sectors program to offer investors additional diversification. This program will be discontinued.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20102.62.6
20119.1-8.72.0-5.7-23.7-36.314.115.0-41.56.7-20.7-8.9-72.5
20120.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began12/29/2010
Suggested Minimum Capital$30,000
Age191 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades61
# Profitable22
% Profitable36.1%
Avg trade duration9.6 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown77.7%
drawdown periodFeb 02, 2011 - Dec 09, 2011
Annual Return (Compounded)-7.7%
Avg win$1,237
Avg loss$1,205

Ratios

W:L ratio0.58
Sharpe Ratio-0.70
Sortino Ratio-0.86
Calmar Ratio-0.27

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.07
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life499.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-584.5%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-7.7%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-6.6%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity312.5%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,205
Avg Win$1,237
# Winners22
Sum Trade PL (losers)$46,997
Sum Trade PL (winners)$27,212
Num Months Winners6
# Losers39
% Winners36.1%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table190

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)13776.75
Avg Position Time (hrs)229.61
Avg Trade Length9.60
Last Trade Ago5379

Regression

Alpha-0.03
Beta0.05
Treynor Index-0.48

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.05
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.07
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.07
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-3.23
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.52
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats30.81
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats50.26
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.38
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.19
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.31

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.19
SD0.28
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.69
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.68
df55
t-1.49
p0.93
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.60
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.23
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.60
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.24
Sortino ratio-0.72
Upside Potential Ratio0.32
Upside part of mean0.09
Downside part of mean-0.28
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.27
N nonnegative terms6
N negative terms50
N of observations56
Mean of predictor0.36
Mean of criterion-0.19
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.28
Covariance0.00
r0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.21
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error54
t(b)0.23
p(b)0.41
t(a)-1.43
p(a)0.92
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.50
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.08
Treynor index (mean / b)-4.70
Jensen alpha (a)-0.21
Mean-0.24
SD0.33
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.74
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.73
df55
t-1.59
p0.94
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.65
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.18
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.64
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.19
Sortino ratio-0.75
Upside Potential Ratio0.25
Upside part of mean0.08
Downside part of mean-0.32
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.32
N nonnegative terms6
N negative terms50
N of observations56
Mean of predictor0.34
Mean of criterion-0.24
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.33
Covariance0.00
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.27
Mean Square Error0.11
DF error54
t(b)0.33
p(b)0.37
t(a)-1.57
p(a)0.94
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.07
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.40
Jensen alpha (a)-0.27
VaR(95%)0.16
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.19
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.16
Mean-0.18
SD0.34
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.54
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.54
df1225
t-1.16
p0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.37
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.44
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.37
Sortino ratio-0.78
Upside Potential Ratio2.85
Upside part of mean0.67
Downside part of mean-0.86
Upside SD0.25
Downside SD0.24
N nonnegative terms105
N negative terms1121
N of observations1226
Mean of predictor0.39
Mean of criterion-0.18
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.34
Covariance0.02
r0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.19
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.26
Mean Square Error0.11
DF error1224
t(b)5.76
p(b)0.42
t(a)-1.64
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.57
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.05
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.97
Jensen alpha (a)-0.26
Mean-0.24
SD0.34
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.71
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.71
df1225
t-1.53
p0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.20
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.62
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.20
Sortino ratio-0.96
Upside Potential Ratio2.57
Upside part of mean0.65
Downside part of mean-0.89
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.25
N nonnegative terms105
N negative terms1121
N of observations1226
Mean of predictor0.35
Mean of criterion-0.24
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion0.34
Covariance0.02
r0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.19
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.31
Mean Square Error0.11
DF error1224
t(b)5.79
p(b)0.42
t(a)-1.97
p(a)0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.00
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.28
Jensen alpha (a)-0.31
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.35
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.42
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.26
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.42
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6747781242814464
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.78999551606639e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations56
Minimum0.62
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.14
Mean of quarter 10.92
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low6
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.80
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.07
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.65
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.20
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.30
Number of observations1226
Minimum0.80
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.24
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low136
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high105
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.88
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.02
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.69
Quartile 10.69
Median0.69
Quartile 30.69
Maximum0.69
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations5
Minimum0.04
Quartile 10.07
Median0.10
Quartile 30.23
Maximum0.72
Mean of quarter 10.06
Mean of quarter 20.10
Mean of quarter 30.23
Mean of quarter 40.72
Inter Quartile Range0.16
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.72
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-440000448
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)310
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.14
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.19
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.28
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.00
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.14
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.19
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.27
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.27
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-4.44
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 63 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
SM Z1long1Jun 22, 2011Dec 14, 2011($6,378)
LE Q1short1Jun 23, 2011Jul 1, 2011($448)
QG Q1long1Jun 16, 2011Jun 30, 2011($696)
QC N1short1Jun 15, 2011Jun 20, 2011$742
SB V1short1Jun 16, 2011Jun 20, 2011($1,027)
LE Q1short1Jun 15, 2011Jun 17, 2011($1,458)
QM Q1long1Jun 15, 2011Jun 17, 2011($2,996)
CC U1short1Jun 10, 2011Jun 16, 2011$972
OJ N1long1May 25, 2011Jun 15, 2011($106)
QM Q1long1Jun 1, 2011Jun 13, 2011($1,733)
BO Z1long1Jun 8, 2011Jun 13, 2011($902)
SB N1short1Jun 1, 2011Jun 2, 2011($422)
QG N1short1May 11, 2011Jun 2, 2011($1,471)
QC N1short1May 25, 2011Jun 2, 2011($83)
HE Q1short1May 5, 2011May 24, 2011$1,912
QM N1long1May 19, 2011May 23, 2011($1,596)
QM N1short1May 13, 2011May 13, 2011($408)
QC N1long1May 11, 2011May 13, 2011$567
YG Q1long1May 6, 2011May 13, 2011($88)
QM N1long1May 11, 2011May 11, 2011($1,646)
OJ N1long1May 6, 2011May 11, 2011$157
C N1long1May 2, 2011May 3, 2011($1,483)
LE M1long1Apr 26, 2011May 3, 2011($568)
QM N1long1Apr 20, 2011May 1, 2011$1,567
QC N1long1Apr 28, 2011May 1, 2011($1,908)
BO N1long1Apr 24, 2011Apr 28, 2011($1,508)
HE M1long1Apr 19, 2011Apr 26, 2011($1,788)
CC N1long1Apr 15, 2011Apr 18, 2011($608)
SB N1long1Apr 14, 2011Apr 15, 2011($355)
OJ N1long1Apr 13, 2011Apr 15, 2011$772

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.