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Dave's YI Auto

Futures · Started Jan 2011

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
96.0%
Trades
159
Win Trades
59.7%
Profit Factor
0.90
Win Months
2.1%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201135.625.817.917.0-4.4-18.1-35.2-95.0-203.1-164.1-50.80.0-124.4
20120.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/15/2011
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age190 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades159
# Profitable95
% Profitable59.7%
Avg trade duration13.0 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown96.0%
drawdown periodAug 22, 2011 - Sept 19, 2011
Annual Return (Compounded)0.0%
Avg win$8,283
Avg loss$13,436

Ratios

W:L ratio0.92
Sharpe Ratio0.50
Sortino Ratio2.10
Calmar Ratio-0.30

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.23
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life483.9%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-172.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-8.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$13,436
Avg Win$8,283
# Winners95
Sum Trade PL (losers)$859,881
Sum Trade PL (winners)$786,895
Num Months Winners4
# Losers64
% Winners59.8%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table9

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)781.08
Avg Position Time (hrs)13.02
Avg Trade Length0.50
Last Trade Ago5395

Regression

Alpha0
Beta-1.93
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.64
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades1.09
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.29
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-9.59
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.84
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats30.17
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats59.35
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.79
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.11
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.10

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.19
SD0.87
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.22
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.22
df41
t0.41
p0.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.83
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.27
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.83
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.26
Sortino ratio0.37
Upside Potential Ratio1.22
Upside part of mean0.63
Downside part of mean-0.44
Upside SD0.69
Downside SD0.52
N nonnegative terms6
N negative terms36
N of observations42
Mean of predictor0.11
Mean of criterion0.19
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.87
Covariance0.03
r0.24
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.78
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.00
Mean Square Error0.73
DF error40
t(b)1.59
p(b)0.06
t(a)-0.01
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta4.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.96
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.95
Treynor index (mean / b)0.11
Jensen alpha (a)-0.00
Mean-0.38
SD1.36
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.28
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.28
df41
t-0.53
p0.70
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.77
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.33
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.77
Sortino ratio-0.30
Upside Potential Ratio0.38
Upside part of mean0.48
Downside part of mean-0.87
Upside SD0.49
Downside SD1.26
N nonnegative terms6
N negative terms36
N of observations42
Mean of predictor0.10
Mean of criterion-0.38
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion1.36
Covariance0.03
r0.20
b (slope, estimate of beta)2.26
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.61
Mean Square Error1.83
DF error40
t(b)1.29
p(b)0.10
t(a)-0.82
p(a)0.79
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta5.80
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.89
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.17
Jensen alpha (a)-0.61
VaR(95%)0.49
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.57
VaR(95%)0.12
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.25
Mean0.08
SD0.96
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.09
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.09
df1203
t0.16
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.96
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.14
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.96
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.14
Sortino ratio0.13
Upside Potential Ratio3.38
Upside part of mean2.14
Downside part of mean-2.06
Upside SD0.73
Downside SD0.63
N nonnegative terms95
N negative terms1109
N of observations1204
Mean of predictor0.11
Mean of criterion0.08
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.96
Covariance-0.02
r-0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.65
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.02
Mean Square Error0.92
DF error1202
t(b)-3.74
p(b)0.55
t(a)0.31
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.99
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.85
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.16
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.13
Jensen alpha (a)0.16
Mean-0.38
SD0.98
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.39
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.39
df1203
t-0.73
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.44
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.66
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.44
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.66
Sortino ratio-0.50
Upside Potential Ratio2.50
Upside part of mean1.93
Downside part of mean-2.32
Upside SD0.61
Downside SD0.77
N nonnegative terms95
N negative terms1109
N of observations1204
Mean of predictor0.10
Mean of criterion-0.38
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.98
Covariance-0.02
r-0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.71
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.31
Mean Square Error0.96
DF error1202
t(b)-4.03
p(b)0.56
t(a)-0.60
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.72
Treynor index (mean / b)0.54
Jensen alpha (a)-0.31
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean-0.01
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-18.55
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.01
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms172
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.07
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.09
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.01
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-3.15763010599649e+16
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-3.14375993861079e+16
df171
t-2.23277998051164e+16
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.47694997228749e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.81057999810724e+16
Sortino ratio-18.55
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.01
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms172
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.07
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.09
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.01
Mean Square Error0
DF error170
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-2.22465003691704e+16
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.50025008881288e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations42
Minimum0.10
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum2.15
Mean of quarter 10.86
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.20
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low5
Percentage of outliers low0.12
Mean of outliers low0.70
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high1.37
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.50
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.23
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.81
Number of observations1204
Minimum0.45
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.68
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low96
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.93
Number of outliers high95
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.08
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.32
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.43
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.07
Number of observations172
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.06
Quartile 10.27
Median0.49
Quartile 30.70
Maximum0.92
Mean of quarter 10.06
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.92
Inter Quartile Range0.43
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations8
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.04
Median0.08
Quartile 30.27
Maximum0.95
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.06
Mean of quarter 30.15
Mean of quarter 40.71
Inter Quartile Range0.23
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.95
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)28
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative1.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.21
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.31
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.34
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.34
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.55
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.21
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.31
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.33
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.44
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-2.98
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 30 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
YI Z1short8Nov 23, 2011Nov 28, 2011($4,464)
YI Z1short8Nov 21, 2011Nov 22, 2011($6,560)
YI Z1short8Nov 18, 2011Nov 21, 2011$5,112
YI Z1short8Nov 17, 2011Nov 17, 2011$1,128
YI Z1short8Nov 16, 2011Nov 17, 2011$6,552
YI Z1long8Nov 15, 2011Nov 15, 2011($4,344)
YI Z1short8Nov 9, 2011Nov 10, 2011$4,136
YI Z1short8Nov 9, 2011Nov 9, 2011$360
YI Z1long8Nov 8, 2011Nov 8, 2011$704
YI Z1long8Nov 3, 2011Nov 7, 2011$80
YI Z1short7Nov 1, 2011Nov 1, 2011($9,506)
YI Z1short7Nov 1, 2011Nov 1, 2011$5,327
YI Z1long14Oct 28, 2011Nov 1, 2011($16,023)
YI Z1long7Oct 27, 2011Oct 27, 2011$5,530
YI Z1long7Oct 26, 2011Oct 27, 2011$0
YI Z1long7Oct 25, 2011Oct 25, 2011($91)
YI Z1long7Oct 24, 2011Oct 24, 2011$1,554
YI Z1short7Oct 19, 2011Oct 20, 2011$2,947
YI Z1short7Oct 18, 2011Oct 18, 2011($5,355)
YI Z1short7Oct 17, 2011Oct 18, 2011$3,370
YI Z1long6Oct 17, 2011Oct 17, 2011($5,478)
YI Z1long6Oct 14, 2011Oct 14, 2011($216)
YI Z1long6Oct 11, 2011Oct 12, 2011$6,834
YI Z1long6Oct 10, 2011Oct 10, 2011$264
YI Z1long5Oct 7, 2011Oct 7, 2011($4,250)
YI Z1long5Oct 6, 2011Oct 7, 2011($220)
YI Z1long5Oct 6, 2011Oct 6, 2011$3,475
YI Z1short5Oct 4, 2011Oct 4, 2011$1,455
YI Z1short5Oct 4, 2011Oct 4, 2011$385
YI Z1long5Oct 4, 2011Oct 4, 2011($5,095)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.