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Super Star trading system

Stocks · Started Apr 2011

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
1.2%
Max Drawdown
77.2%
Trades
177
Win Trades
61.6%
Profit Factor
1.10
Win Months
2.2%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20112.499.693.08.4-71.8-0.10.00.00.020.7
20120.0-0.40.00.00.00.0-0.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.4
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began4/6/2011
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age188 months
What it tradesStocks, Futures
# Trades177
# Profitable109
% Profitable61.6%
Avg trade duration32.9 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown77.2%
drawdown periodJuly 06, 2011 - Feb 13, 2012
Annual Return (Compounded)1.2%
Avg win$7,137
Avg loss$10,817

Ratios

W:L ratio1.06
Sharpe Ratio0.09
Sortino Ratio0.12
Calmar Ratio0.15

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.04
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life465.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-445.2%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)1.2%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)2.3%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity337.7%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.2%
Percent Trades Options0.2%
Percent Trades Stocks0.6%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$10,817
Avg Win$7,137
# Winners109
Sum Trade PL (losers)$735,552
Sum Trade PL (winners)$777,918
Num Months Winners7
# Losers68
% Winners61.6%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct6

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table186

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)47377.02
Avg Position Time (hrs)789.62
Avg Trade Length32.90
Last Trade Ago5502

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta-0.05
Treynor Index-0.14

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.03
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.04
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.06
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades528.45
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.86
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats17.44
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats68.94
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.56
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.12
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.00

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.51
SD1.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.46
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.45
df38
t0.83
p0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.63
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.55
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.64
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.54
Sortino ratio1.30
Upside Potential Ratio1.97
Upside part of mean0.77
Downside part of mean-0.26
Upside SD1.03
Downside SD0.39
N nonnegative terms3
N negative terms36
N of observations39
Mean of predictor0.53
Mean of criterion0.51
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion1.11
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.04
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.49
Mean Square Error1.26
DF error37
t(b)0.08
p(b)0.47
t(a)0.70
p(a)0.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.91
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.88
Treynor index (mean / b)11.47
Jensen alpha (a)0.49
Mean0.08
SD0.93
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.09
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.09
df38
t0.16
p0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.17
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.00
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.17
Sortino ratio0.12
Upside Potential Ratio0.75
Upside part of mean0.50
Downside part of mean-0.42
Upside SD0.63
Downside SD0.67
N nonnegative terms3
N negative terms36
N of observations39
Mean of predictor0.48
Mean of criterion0.08
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.93
Covariance0.02
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.23
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0.88
DF error37
t(b)0.44
p(b)0.33
t(a)-0.05
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.83
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.14
Treynor index (mean / b)0.35
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.35
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.42
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.16
Mean0.23
SD0.53
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.43
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.43
df871
t0.79
p0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.64
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.51
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.64
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.51
Sortino ratio0.61
Upside Potential Ratio2.67
Upside part of mean1.01
Downside part of mean-0.78
Upside SD0.37
Downside SD0.38
N nonnegative terms60
N negative terms812
N of observations872
Mean of predictor0.57
Mean of criterion0.23
SD of predictor0.37
SD of criterion0.53
Covariance-0.01
r-0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.27
Mean Square Error0.28
DF error870
t(b)-1.51
p(b)0.93
t(a)0.93
p(a)0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.84
Treynor index (mean / b)-3.12
Jensen alpha (a)0.27
Mean0.08
SD0.56
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.14
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.14
df871
t0.25
p0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.94
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.21
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.94
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.21
Sortino ratio0.17
Upside Potential Ratio2.10
Upside part of mean0.94
Downside part of mean-0.87
Upside SD0.34
Downside SD0.45
N nonnegative terms60
N negative terms812
N of observations872
Mean of predictor0.50
Mean of criterion0.08
SD of predictor0.37
SD of criterion0.56
Covariance-0.01
r-0.05
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.08
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.12
Mean Square Error0.32
DF error870
t(b)-1.47
p(b)0.93
t(a)0.37
p(a)0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.73
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.02
Jensen alpha (a)0.12
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.21
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.51
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.08
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.51
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6807735765041152
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)2.27177432773732e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations39
Minimum0.30
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum2.74
Mean of quarter 10.92
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.25
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low4
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.81
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high1.42
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.78
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)3.57
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations872
Minimum0.59
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.28
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low41
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.94
Number of outliers high64
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.14
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.49
VaR(95%) (regression method)-0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.72
Quartile 10.72
Median0.72
Quartile 30.72
Maximum0.72
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations12
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.03
Median0.09
Quartile 30.12
Maximum0.73
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.06
Mean of quarter 30.11
Mean of quarter 40.33
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high0.73
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.86
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.36
Expected Shortfall (moments method)2.57
Extreme Value Index (regression method)5.47
VaR(95%) (regression method)1.28
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-426636000
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)222
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.13
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.11
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.16
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.27
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.13
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.11
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.15
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.34
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.62
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 29 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
QGC Z1long20Aug 24, 2011Aug 24, 2011($84,160)
QGC Z1long20Aug 21, 2011Aug 23, 2011$240
SINA1120H95 short20Aug 17, 2011Aug 18, 2011$4,372
SINA1120H92.5 short5Aug 17, 2011Aug 18, 2011$1,193
SINA1120T95 short20Aug 17, 2011Aug 18, 2011($1,428)
YOKU long10000Aug 15, 2011Aug 17, 2011$16,295
SPXW1112T1120 short2Aug 10, 2011Aug 13, 2011$4,279
SPXW1112H1120 short2Aug 10, 2011Aug 13, 2011($7,745)
SPXW1112T1150 short2Aug 11, 2011Aug 13, 2011$2,939
SPXW1112H1130 short2Aug 8, 2011Aug 13, 2011$5,939
SPXW1112T1130 short2Aug 8, 2011Aug 13, 2011$6,059
ES U1long10Aug 11, 2011Aug 11, 2011$3,420
ES U1long5Aug 11, 2011Aug 11, 2011($40)
QGC Z1long85Aug 10, 2011Aug 11, 2011($302,970)
ES U1long10Aug 10, 2011Aug 10, 2011($40)
ES U1short10Aug 10, 2011Aug 10, 2011$1,420
QGC Z1long15Aug 9, 2011Aug 9, 2011$2,130
QGC Z1long10Aug 9, 2011Aug 9, 2011$1,820
QGC Z1long60Aug 9, 2011Aug 9, 2011$3,020
ES U1long10Aug 8, 2011Aug 8, 2011$5,170
SPXW1105T1200 long10Aug 5, 2011Aug 6, 2011($3,594)
ES U1long20Aug 5, 2011Aug 5, 2011$11,840
ES U1long20Aug 5, 2011Aug 5, 2011$6,340
ES U1long20Aug 5, 2011Aug 5, 2011($7,410)
ES U1long20Aug 5, 2011Aug 5, 2011$5,090
LNKD long4000Aug 4, 2011Aug 4, 2011$795
ISRG long2000Aug 3, 2011Aug 3, 2011$1,793
LNKD long1000Aug 1, 2011Aug 2, 2011$25
JVA long5000Aug 1, 2011Aug 2, 2011$295
MCP long1600Aug 1, 2011Aug 2, 2011$2,571

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.