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Options 787

Options · Started Jun 2011

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
5.6%
Max Drawdown
33.3%
Trades
460
Win Trades
81.7%
Profit Factor
3.10
Win Months
37.5%

About this strategy

Trading options on high volume ETFs and high volume stocks. Statistical and technical data is used for entry signals, the strategy is actively traded in a real account and monitored live. Our trades take advantage of time decay by selling the option premium.

- $20K recommended to trade this strategy

( 1 lot per trade at this level )

- 10 to 15 trades monthly

- the fund will sell credit spreads, calls, and puts

- mostly trading very high volume ETFs

- email "Options 787" for any other questions

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20110.00.01.79.58.98.94.738.3
20122.1-0.71.83.12.55.12.01.3-0.71.42.80.823.8
20130.30.30.9-11.1-0.2-4.51.20.4-0.31.81.31.3-8.8
2014-0.21.11.70.42.40.50.90.1-11.7-2.7-4.25.4-7.2
20156.6-5.71.9-3.14.2-7.8-5.9-0.9-0.79.8-11.41.4-13.0
2016-0.83.44.515.1-7.723.03.9-9.32.9-4.6-10.8-3.611.4
201710.64.9-0.7-5.90.6-4.41.24.0-4.90.30.8-1.24.3
20183.3-4.3-1.0-1.21.4-2.0-5.1-4.4-0.9-2.50.28.0-8.9
20192.60.9-5.6-0.8-0.33.7-1.321.0-4.43.7-6.44.616.2
20201.5-0.9-20.85.319.7-2.440.412.8-12.7-0.52.46.947.6
20214.5-1.4-10.28.38.2-6.8-0.30.00.00.00.00.00.9
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began6/21/2011
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age185 months
What it tradesOptions
# Trades460
# Profitable376
% Profitable81.7%
Avg trade duration27.7 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown33.3%
drawdown periodAug 01, 2016 - Sept 18, 2018
Annual Return (Compounded)5.6%
Avg win$575
Avg loss$836

Ratios

W:L ratio3.08
Sharpe Ratio0.24
Sortino Ratio0.37
Calmar Ratio0.57

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.17
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life487.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-365.0%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)5.6%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)6.1%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity11.8%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.4%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.9%
Percent Trades Stocks0.1%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss55.0%
Chance of 20% account loss27.0%
Chance of 30% account loss9.0%
Chance of 40% account loss4.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.5%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$836
Avg Win$575
# Winners376
Sum Trade PL (losers)$70,229
Sum Trade PL (winners)$216,169
Num Months Winners70
# Losers84
% Winners81.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table184

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)39870.22
Avg Position Time (hrs)664.50
Avg Trade Length27.70
Last Trade Ago1880

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta0.20
Treynor Index0.07

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades1.79
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.49
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats30.44
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats20.44
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.77
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.33
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.56

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.19
SD0.36
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.52
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.51
df65
t1.22
p0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.36
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.33
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.35
Sortino ratio1.43
Upside Potential Ratio2.89
Upside part of mean0.38
Downside part of mean-0.19
Upside SD0.34
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms38
N negative terms28
N of observations66
Mean of predictor0.30
Mean of criterion0.19
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion0.36
Covariance0.05
r0.54
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.85
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.07
Mean Square Error0.09
DF error64
t(b)5.17
p(b)0
t(a)-0.47
p(a)0.68
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.52
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.21
Treynor index (mean / b)0.22
Jensen alpha (a)-0.07
Mean0.14
SD0.30
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.45
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.44
df65
t1.06
p0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.29
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.39
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.28
Sortino ratio0.97
Upside Potential Ratio2.40
Upside part of mean0.34
Downside part of mean-0.20
Upside SD0.27
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms38
N negative terms28
N of observations66
Mean of predictor0.27
Mean of criterion0.14
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.30
Covariance0.03
r0.49
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.66
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.04
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error64
t(b)4.45
p(b)0.00
t(a)-0.35
p(a)0.64
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.96
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.20
Treynor index (mean / b)0.20
Jensen alpha (a)-0.04
VaR(95%)0.12
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.15
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
Mean0.17
SD0.28
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.62
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.62
df1449
t1.47
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.46
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.21
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.46
Sortino ratio0.98
Upside Potential Ratio5.99
Upside part of mean1.05
Downside part of mean-0.88
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms687
N negative terms763
N of observations1450
Mean of predictor0.32
Mean of criterion0.17
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.28
Covariance0.01
r0.14
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.16
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.12
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error1448
t(b)5.52
p(b)0.43
t(a)1.03
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.35
Treynor index (mean / b)1.05
Jensen alpha (a)0.12
Mean0.13
SD0.27
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.50
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.50
df1449
t1.17
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.33
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.34
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.33
Sortino ratio0.75
Upside Potential Ratio5.69
Upside part of mean1.03
Downside part of mean-0.89
Upside SD0.20
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms687
N negative terms763
N of observations1450
Mean of predictor0.29
Mean of criterion0.13
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.27
Covariance0.01
r0.14
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.16
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.09
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error1448
t(b)5.42
p(b)0.43
t(a)0.77
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.22
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.31
Treynor index (mean / b)0.85
Jensen alpha (a)0.09
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.30
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.44
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.20
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.44
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6770476923748352
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)2.37011106189861e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations66
Minimum0.81
Quartile 11.00
Median1.01
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.72
Mean of quarter 10.94
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.11
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low9
Percentage of outliers low0.14
Mean of outliers low0.91
Number of outliers high9
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high1.18
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.42
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.06
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.07
Number of observations1450
Minimum0.86
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.20
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low187
Percentage of outliers low0.13
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high199
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.07
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.43
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations6
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.05
Quartile 30.17
Maximum0.24
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.05
Mean of quarter 30.06
Mean of quarter 40.22
Inter Quartile Range0.15
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations59
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.31
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.00
Mean of quarter 40.07
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high8
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high0.12
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.02
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.68
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.23
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-405223680
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)778
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.27
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.18
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.75
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.81
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.15
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.26
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.18
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.57
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.42
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal5.26
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 119 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
SLV long10000Aug 17, 2014Jul 16, 2021$56,593
EWZ1414W37 short50Oct 20, 2014Nov 15, 2014$3,765
XME1414W30 short50Oct 20, 2014Nov 15, 2014$1,265
XME1414W37.5 short50Oct 20, 2014Oct 21, 2014$430
GLD1420U115 short50Aug 22, 2014Sep 21, 2014$615
SLV1420U18 short50Aug 22, 2014Sep 21, 2014$565
GDX1416T23.5 short50Jul 14, 2014Aug 17, 2014$415
GLD1416T117 short50Jul 14, 2014Aug 17, 2014$665
SLV1416T19 short50Jul 14, 2014Aug 17, 2014$565
GLD1430R114 short50Jun 4, 2014Jul 1, 2014$1,065
GDX1427R20.5 short50Jun 4, 2014Jun 28, 2014$165
SLV1427R17.5 short50Jun 4, 2014Jun 28, 2014$665
XME1421R37 short50Jun 4, 2014Jun 22, 2014$465
SLV1430Q17 short50May 1, 2014May 31, 2014$565
GLD1430Q116 short50Apr 28, 2014May 31, 2014$965
SLV1430Q18 short75Apr 28, 2014May 31, 2014$1,298
SLV1425P18 short50Apr 1, 2014Apr 26, 2014$565
GDX1425P21.5 short25Apr 1, 2014Apr 26, 2014$358
GLD1425P116.5 short50Apr 1, 2014Apr 26, 2014$1,115
GLD1431O120 short25Mar 7, 2014Apr 1, 2014$333
SLV1428O19 short25Mar 7, 2014Mar 28, 2014$240
FXI1428O33 short50Mar 7, 2014Mar 21, 2014$780
EWZ1428O38 short25Mar 7, 2014Mar 21, 2014$715
EWZ1428O37 short25Mar 10, 2014Mar 21, 2014$790
GDX1428O22 short25Mar 7, 2014Mar 21, 2014($10)
EWZ1422N35 short25Jan 30, 2014Feb 23, 2014$233
XME1422N35 short25Jan 30, 2014Feb 23, 2014$133
GLD1422N112 short25Jan 30, 2014Feb 23, 2014$658
SLV1422N17 short25Jan 30, 2014Feb 23, 2014$258
EEM1424M38 short25Jan 7, 2014Jan 10, 2014$115

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.