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Strawberry Rhubarb FX

Forex · Started Sep 2011

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-25.3%
Max Drawdown
79.4%
Trades
440
Win Trades
84.5%
Profit Factor
1.10
Win Months
53.6%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201124.319.118.413.398.5
20125.8-14.120.6-38.71.51.920.36.93.47.55.53.88.9
2013-3.7-12.93.011.4-2.320.6-11.9-33.026.3-28.0-72.3-11.8-85.1
2014-107.0-647.7148.4-2.8-3.0-1.73.96.519.0-0.722.43.445.1
2015-5.23.81.1-1.88.6-2.41.8-3.1-2.40.83.2-3.40.2
20160.4-12.3-3.4-10.24.4-18.2-4.24.6-7.615.028.05.3-6.4
2017-8.1-0.4-3.1-0.5-0.32.7-3.5-3.58.90.8-4.43.4-8.7
2018-9.7-4.1-3.910.6-0.63.23.9-1.53.8-0.22.5-6.4-4.0
2019-3.42.9-1.40.00.0-6.35.83.3-0.1-0.4-6.0
20201.14.1-2.8-5.31.0-0.3-7.64.3-2.6-4.40.1-2.8-14.6
20214.26.38.8-2.51.04.3-0.7-1.50.59.83.0-1.136.0
2022-1.72.713.38.1-0.210.8-1.14.24.23.7-6.8-6.432.7
2023-3.68.2-6.03.04.76.5-2.94.22.40.9-0.4-6.99.2
20246.22.50.44.10.41.4-6.0-5.3-0.47.11.9-0.811.1
20251.7-5.20.8-7.51.61.73.5-1.10.44.22.3-0.21.6
2026-2.00.83.8-0.3-0.12.00.7-2.7-3.3-1.1

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began9/13/2011
Suggested Minimum Capital$20,000
Age182 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades440
# Profitable372
% Profitable84.5%
Avg trade duration15.2 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown79.4%
drawdown periodJuly 25, 2013 - Feb 04, 2014
Annual Return (Compounded)-25.3%
Avg win$465
Avg loss$2,353

Ratios

W:L ratio1.08
Sharpe Ratio-0.21
Sortino Ratio-0.21
Calmar Ratio0.15

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.05
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life548.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-127.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-25.3%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.3%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)3.4%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity294.4%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)300
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)712

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$2,353
Avg Win$465
# Winners372
Sum Trade PL (losers)$159,977
Sum Trade PL (winners)$172,885
Num Months Winners18
# Losers68
% Winners84.6%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table29

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)912.83
Avg Position Time (hrs)15.21
Avg Trade Length0.60
Last Trade Ago4567

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.65
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.10
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.05
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.43
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.03
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-183.65
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)2.15
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats89.21
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats80.81
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades2.07
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.25
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.01

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.24
SD0.57
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.41
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.40
df32
t0.69
p0.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.78
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.60
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.78
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.59
Sortino ratio0.61
Upside Potential Ratio2.30
Upside part of mean0.88
Downside part of mean-0.65
Upside SD0.41
Downside SD0.38
N nonnegative terms20
N negative terms13
N of observations33
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion0.24
SD of predictor0.11
SD of criterion0.57
Covariance0.02
r0.30
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.58
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.06
Mean Square Error0.31
DF error31
t(b)1.73
p(b)0.05
t(a)-0.17
p(a)0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta3.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.83
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.70
Treynor index (mean / b)0.15
Jensen alpha (a)-0.06
Mean0.07
SD0.59
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.12
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.12
df32
t0.20
p0.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.30
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.06
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.30
Sortino ratio0.16
Upside Potential Ratio1.81
Upside part of mean0.81
Downside part of mean-0.74
Upside SD0.37
Downside SD0.45
N nonnegative terms20
N negative terms13
N of observations33
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.07
SD of predictor0.11
SD of criterion0.59
Covariance0.02
r0.30
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.67
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.23
Mean Square Error0.32
DF error31
t(b)1.76
p(b)0.04
t(a)-0.60
p(a)0.73
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta3.61
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.55
Treynor index (mean / b)0.04
Jensen alpha (a)-0.23
VaR(95%)0.24
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.29
VaR(95%)0.11
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.22
Mean0.20
SD0.48
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.41
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.40
df961
t0.68
p0.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.77
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.58
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.77
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.58
Sortino ratio0.54
Upside Potential Ratio6.80
Upside part of mean2.45
Downside part of mean-2.26
Upside SD0.32
Downside SD0.36
N nonnegative terms445
N negative terms517
N of observations962
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion0.20
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.48
Covariance0.01
r0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.32
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.12
Mean Square Error0.23
DF error960
t(b)2.92
p(b)0.00
t(a)0.47
p(a)0.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.70
Treynor index (mean / b)0.61
Jensen alpha (a)0.14
Mean0.08
SD0.49
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.16
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.16
df961
t0.27
p0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.33
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.01
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.33
Sortino ratio0.21
Upside Potential Ratio6.38
Upside part of mean2.40
Downside part of mean-2.33
Upside SD0.31
Downside SD0.38
N nonnegative terms445
N negative terms517
N of observations962
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.08
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.49
Covariance0.01
r0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.32
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.02
Mean Square Error0.24
DF error960
t(b)2.87
p(b)0.00
t(a)0.07
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.59
Treynor index (mean / b)0.24
Jensen alpha (a)0.02
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
Mean0.10
SD0.54
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.18
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.18
df171
t0.13
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.59
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.95
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.59
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.95
Sortino ratio0.24
Upside Potential Ratio6.92
Upside part of mean2.77
Downside part of mean-2.67
Upside SD0.36
Downside SD0.40
N nonnegative terms94
N negative terms78
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion0.10
SD of predictor0.11
SD of criterion0.54
Covariance0.03
r0.43
b (slope, estimate of beta)2.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.29
Mean Square Error0.24
DF error170
t(b)6.22
p(b)0.28
t(a)-0.42
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.72
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.66
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.07
Treynor index (mean / b)0.05
Jensen alpha (a)-0.29
Mean-0.05
SD0.55
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.09
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.09
df171
t-0.06
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.86
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.68
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.86
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.68
Sortino ratio-0.12
Upside Potential Ratio6.46
Upside part of mean2.71
Downside part of mean-2.76
Upside SD0.35
Downside SD0.42
N nonnegative terms94
N negative terms78
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion-0.05
SD of predictor0.11
SD of criterion0.55
Covariance0.03
r0.44
b (slope, estimate of beta)2.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.44
Mean Square Error0.24
DF error170
t(b)6.36
p(b)0.28
t(a)-0.63
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.47
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.79
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.82
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.94
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.02
Jensen alpha (a)-0.44
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations33
Minimum0.67
Quartile 10.96
Median1.03
Quartile 31.10
Maximum1.35
Mean of quarter 10.81
Mean of quarter 21.01
Mean of quarter 31.09
Mean of quarter 41.20
Inter Quartile Range0.14
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.68
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.34
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-6.71
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.12
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.82
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.22
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.25
Number of observations962
Minimum0.85
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.17
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low136
Percentage of outliers low0.14
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high111
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.70
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.16
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04
Number of observations172
Minimum0.87
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.11
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low26
Percentage of outliers low0.15
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high27
Percentage of outliers high0.16
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.99
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)1.94
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.49
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.07

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.12
Quartile 10.22
Median0.33
Quartile 30.52
Maximum0.72
Mean of quarter 10.12
Mean of quarter 20.33
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.72
Inter Quartile Range0.30
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations30
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.04
Quartile 30.08
Maximum0.78
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.06
Mean of quarter 40.26
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high0.43
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.80
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.30
Expected Shortfall (moments method)1.53
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.27
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.26
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations1
Minimum0.41
Quartile 10.41
Median0.41
Quartile 30.41
Maximum0.41
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)194
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative1.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.09
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.09
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.12
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.12
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.29
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.10
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.09
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.12
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.36
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.74
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.04
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.04
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.10
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.66

Trading record

Placed 883 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
GBP/JPY long120Jan 23, 2014Mar 7, 2014$3
GBP/JPY long120Jan 2, 2014Jan 22, 2014($0)
GBP/JPY long200Dec 17, 2013Dec 18, 2013$3
GBP/JPY short100Dec 12, 2013Dec 12, 2013$1
GBP/JPY long100Dec 11, 2013Dec 11, 2013$1
GBP/JPY short100Dec 6, 2013Dec 6, 2013$1
GBP/JPY long100Dec 5, 2013Dec 6, 2013$2
GBP/JPY long140Dec 3, 2013Dec 5, 2013($16)
GBP/JPY long140Nov 25, 2013Nov 27, 2013($1)
GBP/JPY long140Nov 22, 2013Nov 24, 2013$3
GBP/JPY long140Nov 22, 2013Nov 22, 2013$0
GBP/JPY long140Nov 22, 2013Nov 22, 2013($2)
GBP/JPY short650Nov 8, 2013Nov 21, 2013($130)
GBP/JPY short350Nov 6, 2013Nov 7, 2013$5
GBP/JPY long350Nov 6, 2013Nov 6, 2013($5)
GBP/JPY long350Nov 5, 2013Nov 5, 2013$3
GBP/JPY long350Nov 5, 2013Nov 5, 2013$0
GBP/JPY short350Nov 3, 2013Nov 4, 2013$1
GBP/JPY long350Oct 30, 2013Nov 3, 2013($16)
GBP/JPY short350Oct 29, 2013Oct 29, 2013$3
GBP/JPY long350Oct 28, 2013Oct 28, 2013$1
GBP/JPY long350Oct 25, 2013Oct 25, 2013$2
GBP/JPY long350Oct 24, 2013Oct 24, 2013$2
GBP/JPY long350Oct 24, 2013Oct 24, 2013$1
GBP/JPY short350Oct 24, 2013Oct 24, 2013$4
GBP/JPY long350Oct 22, 2013Oct 22, 2013$1
GBP/JPY long350Oct 17, 2013Oct 17, 2013$3
GBP/JPY long350Oct 16, 2013Oct 16, 2013$1
GBP/JPY long350Oct 15, 2013Oct 15, 2013$3
GBP/JPY short350Oct 15, 2013Oct 15, 2013$1

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.