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QUARTZ II

Futures · Started Oct 2011

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
374
Win Trades
49.7%
Profit Factor
1
Win Months
18.9%

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20119.513.2-1.821.7
201210.421.69.926.220.483.342.62.70.3-1.5-16.6-2.9381.6
201310.50.58.51.9-12.1-21.43.97.3-14.341.2-3.44.815.9
2014-13.241.6-9.5-8.6-7.614.05.66.3-8.6-0.60.8-28.7-21.6
201515.124.1-2.35.6-2.90.2-13.894.22.7-40.7-10.7-5.323.4
2016-81.652.0-120.2-33.7-109.1-1229.3-226.245.036.943.1-176.3-49.3-131.6
2017-5.9-4.3-26.8-4.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began10/31/2011
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age181 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades374
# Profitable186
% Profitable49.7%
Avg trade duration5.0 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodMay 15, 2016 - Oct 25, 2016
Annual Return (Compounded)0.0%
Avg win$16,810
Avg loss$16,891

Ratios

W:L ratio0.98
Sharpe Ratio-0.53
Sortino Ratio-0.55
Calmar Ratio-0.43

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.07
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life507.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-462.3%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-22.2%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.7%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)636
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$16,891
Avg Win$16,810
# Winners186
Sum Trade PL (losers)$3,175,475
Sum Trade PL (winners)$3,126,669
Num Months Winners31
# Losers188
% Winners49.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table54

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)7179.63
Avg Position Time (hrs)119.66
Avg Trade Length5
Last Trade Ago3437

Regression

Alpha0
Beta-0.48
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.08
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.10
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.05
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-103.97
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.57
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats64.58
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats57.22
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.57
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.34
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.01

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.38
SD0.93
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.41
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.41
df66
t0.97
p0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.24
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.43
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.24
Sortino ratio0.62
Upside Potential Ratio2.17
Upside part of mean1.35
Downside part of mean-0.97
Upside SD0.69
Downside SD0.62
N nonnegative terms41
N negative terms26
N of observations67
Mean of predictor0.11
Mean of criterion0.38
SD of predictor0.11
SD of criterion0.93
Covariance0.01
r0.08
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.67
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.31
Mean Square Error0.88
DF error65
t(b)0.66
p(b)0.26
t(a)0.75
p(a)0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.70
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.13
Treynor index (mean / b)0.57
Jensen alpha (a)0.31
Mean-0.13
SD1.10
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.12
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.12
df66
t-0.28
p0.61
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.95
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.71
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.95
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.71
Sortino ratio-0.14
Upside Potential Ratio1.24
Upside part of mean1.17
Downside part of mean-1.30
Upside SD0.57
Downside SD0.94
N nonnegative terms41
N negative terms26
N of observations67
Mean of predictor0.10
Mean of criterion-0.13
SD of predictor0.11
SD of criterion1.10
Covariance0.02
r0.15
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.43
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.28
Mean Square Error1.21
DF error65
t(b)1.20
p(b)0.12
t(a)-0.58
p(a)0.72
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.96
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta3.82
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.68
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.09
Jensen alpha (a)-0.28
VaR(95%)0.41
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.48
VaR(95%)0.16
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.33
Mean-0.10
SD0.97
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.11
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.11
df1948
t-0.25
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.93
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.72
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.93
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.72
Sortino ratio-0.14
Upside Potential Ratio6.64
Upside part of mean4.98
Downside part of mean-5.09
Upside SD0.61
Downside SD0.75
N nonnegative terms950
N negative terms999
N of observations1949
Mean of predictor0.11
Mean of criterion-0.10
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.97
Covariance0.00
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.15
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.07
Mean Square Error0.94
DF error1947
t(b)0.86
p(b)0.49
t(a)-0.29
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.92
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.68
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.70
Jensen alpha (a)-0.12
Mean-0.67
SD1.14
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.59
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.59
df1948
t-1.39
p0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.24
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.41
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.24
Sortino ratio-0.68
Upside Potential Ratio4.87
Upside part of mean4.81
Downside part of mean-5.48
Upside SD0.58
Downside SD0.99
N nonnegative terms950
N negative terms999
N of observations1949
Mean of predictor0.10
Mean of criterion-0.67
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion1.14
Covariance0.00
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.16
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.69
Mean Square Error1.31
DF error1947
t(b)0.81
p(b)0.49
t(a)-1.43
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.63
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.26
Treynor index (mean / b)-4.13
Jensen alpha (a)-0.69
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
Mean-8.01
SD1.68
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-4.76
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-4.74
df171
t-3.36
p0.66
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-7.57
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.93
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-7.55
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.92
Sortino ratio-4.84
Upside Potential Ratio2.43
Upside part of mean4.03
Downside part of mean-12.04
Upside SD0.52
Downside SD1.65
N nonnegative terms66
N negative terms106
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion-8.01
SD of predictor0.07
SD of criterion1.68
Covariance0.00
r0.03
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.64
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-8.14
Mean Square Error2.85
DF error170
t(b)0.36
p(b)0.49
t(a)-3.37
p(a)0.63
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.84
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta4.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-12.90
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-3.37
Treynor index (mean / b)-12.56
Jensen alpha (a)-8.14
Mean-10.54
SD2.58
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-4.09
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-4.08
df171
t-2.89
p0.64
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-6.89
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.28
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-6.88
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.27
Sortino ratio-4.08
Upside Potential Ratio1.51
Upside part of mean3.90
Downside part of mean-14.44
Upside SD0.50
Downside SD2.58
N nonnegative terms66
N negative terms106
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion-10.54
SD of predictor0.07
SD of criterion2.58
Covariance0.00
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.59
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-10.65
Mean Square Error6.67
DF error170
t(b)0.22
p(b)0.49
t(a)-2.89
p(a)0.61
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-4.75
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta5.93
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-17.94
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-3.37
Treynor index (mean / b)-17.84
Jensen alpha (a)-10.65
VaR(95%)0.23
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.27
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.19

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations67
Minimum0.24
Quartile 10.91
Median1.05
Quartile 31.14
Maximum1.80
Mean of quarter 10.70
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.10
Mean of quarter 41.34
Inter Quartile Range0.23
Number outliers low4
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.40
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.63
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.09
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.25
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.36
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.08
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.33
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.50
Number of observations1949
Minimum0.22
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.30
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 20.99
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.05
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low113
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.88
Number of outliers high113
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.11
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.40
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.10
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.27
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.08
Number of observations172
Minimum0.22
Quartile 10.96
Median0.99
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.15
Mean of quarter 10.88
Mean of quarter 20.98
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low14
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.76
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.13
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.66
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.39
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.55
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.23

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations5
Minimum0.14
Quartile 10.15
Median0.32
Quartile 30.39
Maximum0.97
Mean of quarter 10.15
Mean of quarter 20.32
Mean of quarter 30.39
Mean of quarter 40.97
Inter Quartile Range0.23
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.97
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations46
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.04
Quartile 30.14
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.08
Mean of quarter 40.35
Inter Quartile Range0.13
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high0.57
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.24
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.33
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.42
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.22
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.42
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.68
Number of observations2
Minimum0.08
Quartile 10.31
Median0.54
Quartile 30.77
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.08
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.46
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)163
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.8%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.09
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.11
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.12
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.12
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.23
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.17
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.48
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.48
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.38
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-3.99
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-1.99
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-1.00
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.00
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.00
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-3.69

Trading record

Placed 349 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
ES M7long9Mar 24, 2017Apr 5, 2017($7,360)
ES M7short5Mar 22, 2017Mar 24, 2017$323
ES M7short1Mar 22, 2017Mar 22, 2017($133)
ES M7long7Mar 21, 2017Mar 22, 2017($12,831)
ES M7short4Mar 14, 2017Mar 21, 2017($2,095)
ES H7long4Mar 10, 2017Mar 14, 2017($1,082)
ES H7short4Mar 8, 2017Mar 10, 2017($1,982)
ES H7long5Mar 2, 2017Mar 8, 2017($4,778)
ES H7short5Feb 23, 2017Mar 2, 2017($5,103)
ES H7long5Feb 22, 2017Feb 23, 2017$335
ES H7short5Feb 21, 2017Feb 22, 2017($40)
ES H7long6Feb 19, 2017Feb 21, 2017$2,340
ES H7short6Feb 14, 2017Feb 19, 2017($7,173)
ES H7long5Jan 19, 2017Feb 14, 2017$14,460
ES H7short5Jan 19, 2017Jan 19, 2017($290)
ES H7long10Jan 12, 2017Jan 19, 2017($955)
ES H7long4Jan 12, 2017Jan 12, 2017$181
ES H7short3Jan 6, 2017Jan 12, 2017($174)
ES H7long14Jan 5, 2017Jan 5, 2017($637)
ES H7short18Jan 3, 2017Jan 5, 2017($4,519)
ES H7long4Jan 3, 2017Jan 3, 2017$668
ES H7short4Dec 29, 2016Jan 3, 2017($832)
ES H7long8Dec 27, 2016Dec 29, 2016($9,714)
ES H7short8Dec 27, 2016Dec 27, 2016($3,064)
ES H7long8Dec 23, 2016Dec 27, 2016$1,136
ES H7short8Dec 23, 2016Dec 23, 2016($664)
ES H7long8Dec 23, 2016Dec 23, 2016($64)
ES H7short8Dec 23, 2016Dec 23, 2016$436
ES H7long8Dec 23, 2016Dec 23, 2016($164)
ES H7short8Dec 23, 2016Dec 23, 2016$111

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.