Welcome to Collective2

Follow these tips for a better experience

Ok, let's start

Close
Add to Watch List Create new Watch List
Add
Enter a name for your Watch List.
Watch List name must be less than 60 characters.
You have reached the maximum number of custom Watch Lists.
You have reached the maximum number of strategies in this Watch List.
Strategy added to Watch List. Go to Watch List

Sim is unavailable for this strategy, because you've recently "Simmed" it.

You already have a live, full-featured subscription to this strategy.

Okay, no problem

Reach out to us when you are ready. You can schedule your free training session at any time by clicking the button.

Remember, this training is free, low pressure, and (we hope!) fun.

Got it

Later

You can find it here.

Got it

Video Saved for Later

You can watch this video later. Just click this button at the top of the screen whenever you're ready to watch it.

Got it

15+ per month

Futures · Started Nov 2011

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
2.8%
Max Drawdown
10.7%
Trades
221
Win Trades
69.2%
Profit Factor
2.50
Win Months
6.7%

About this strategy

NO LONGER TRADED, Please visit FOREX Position Trades
https://www.collective2.com/details/115368243

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20110.54.14.6
201219.919.23.3-0.1-0.12.7-0.11.41.20.10.4-0.155.6
20130.5-0.50.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2-1.1
20140.0-0.2-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-1.4
2015-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-1.4
2016-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-1.5
2017-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-1.5
2018-0.1-0.1-0.10.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.4
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began11/11/2011
Suggested Minimum Capital$24,510
Age181 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades221
# Profitable153
% Profitable69.2%
Avg trade duration6.2 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown10.7%
drawdown periodJan 27, 2012 - Feb 01, 2012
Annual Return (Compounded)2.8%
Avg win$239
Avg loss$212

Ratios

W:L ratio2.54
Sharpe Ratio0.17
Sortino Ratio0.32
Calmar Ratio3.70

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.00
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life502.1%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-449.1%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)2.8%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)4.4%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity8.4%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss3.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated97.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$212
Avg Win$239
# Winners153
Sum Trade PL (losers)$14,434
Sum Trade PL (winners)$36,621
Num Months Winners12
# Losers68
% Winners69.2%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table179

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)374.43
Avg Position Time (hrs)6.24
Avg Trade Length0.30
Last Trade Ago4920

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0
Treynor Index-3.73

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades3.46
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.47
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats70.72
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats69.15
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.12
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-2.04
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.29

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.15
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.78
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.77
df48
t1.58
p0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.76
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.21
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.75
Sortino ratio21.17
Upside Potential Ratio24.14
Upside part of mean0.17
Downside part of mean-0.02
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms13
N negative terms36
N of observations49
Mean of predictor0.46
Mean of criterion0.15
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.01
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.15
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error47
t(b)-0.05
p(b)0.52
t(a)1.42
p(a)0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.21
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.36
Treynor index (mean / b)-27.23
Jensen alpha (a)0.15
Mean0.13
SD0.16
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.80
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.78
df48
t1.61
p0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.78
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.20
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.77
Sortino ratio18.97
Upside Potential Ratio21.94
Upside part of mean0.15
Downside part of mean-0.02
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.01
N nonnegative terms13
N negative terms36
N of observations49
Mean of predictor0.42
Mean of criterion0.13
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.16
Covariance-0.00
r-0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.13
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error47
t(b)-0.01
p(b)0.50
t(a)1.44
p(a)0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.31
Treynor index (mean / b)-181.11
Jensen alpha (a)0.13
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean0.13
SD0.10
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.39
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.39
df1072
t2.82
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.36
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.42
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.36
Sortino ratio3.20
Upside Potential Ratio5.53
Upside part of mean0.23
Downside part of mean-0.10
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms100
N negative terms973
N of observations1073
Mean of predictor0.46
Mean of criterion0.13
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.10
Covariance-0.00
r-0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.13
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error1071
t(b)-0.02
p(b)0.50
t(a)2.81
p(a)0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.23
Treynor index (mean / b)-838.32
Jensen alpha (a)0.13
Mean0.13
SD0.09
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.37
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.37
df1072
t2.77
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.34
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.40
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.34
Sortino ratio3.04
Upside Potential Ratio5.35
Upside part of mean0.23
Downside part of mean-0.10
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms100
N negative terms973
N of observations1073
Mean of predictor0.41
Mean of criterion0.13
SD of predictor0.29
SD of criterion0.09
Covariance0.00
r0.00
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.13
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error1071
t(b)0.01
p(b)0.50
t(a)2.76
p(a)0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.22
Treynor index (mean / b)1535.94
Jensen alpha (a)0.13
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.15
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.46
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.05
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.47
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6800981392097280
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)2.29595032956391e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations49
Minimum1.00
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.34
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.06
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high8
Percentage of outliers high0.16
Mean of outliers high1.08
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations1073
Minimum0.95
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.08
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low100
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low1.00
Number of outliers high192
Percentage of outliers high0.18
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.15
VaR(95%) (moments method)-0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.28
VaR(95%) (regression method)-0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.00
Maximum0.00
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.00
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations18
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.05
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.04
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-5.74
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.04
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-4.44
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.07
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-413766592
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)5
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.22
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.17
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)532.10
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs532.10
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.07
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.22
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.17
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)3.70
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs4.47
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal14.83
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 305 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
EU M3long3Mar 26, 2013Mar 28, 2013($99)
BD M3long1Mar 26, 2013Mar 26, 2013$25
BD M3long1Mar 26, 2013Mar 26, 2013($30)
BD M3long1Mar 26, 2013Mar 26, 2013$25
AD M3short1Mar 25, 2013Mar 25, 2013$15
BD M3short1Mar 22, 2013Mar 22, 2013($8)
EU M3long1Mar 22, 2013Mar 22, 2013$11
AD M3short1Mar 21, 2013Mar 21, 2013$22
AD M3long3Mar 15, 2013Mar 15, 2013$143
BD M3short1Mar 13, 2013Mar 13, 2013$47
BD M3short1Mar 13, 2013Mar 13, 2013($19)
BD M3short1Mar 13, 2013Mar 13, 2013($15)
BD M3long2Mar 11, 2013Mar 12, 2013$203
BD M3short1Mar 7, 2013Mar 7, 2013$159
BD M3short1Mar 7, 2013Mar 7, 2013($270)
BD M3short1Mar 7, 2013Mar 7, 2013($9)
BD M3long1Mar 6, 2013Mar 6, 2013$3
BD M3long1Mar 6, 2013Mar 6, 2013($75)
BD H3short1Mar 1, 2013Mar 1, 2013$68
ES H3long1Feb 28, 2013Feb 28, 2013$30
ES H3short1Feb 28, 2013Feb 28, 2013$17
ES H3short1Feb 27, 2013Feb 27, 2013$5
ES H3short1Feb 26, 2013Feb 27, 2013($8)
ES H3short2Feb 25, 2013Feb 25, 2013$184
ES H3long1Feb 22, 2013Feb 22, 2013$30
ES H3long1Feb 21, 2013Feb 21, 2013$67
BD H3short1Feb 20, 2013Feb 20, 2013($19)
BD H3long1Feb 20, 2013Feb 20, 2013($139)
BD H3short1Feb 20, 2013Feb 20, 2013($19)
BD H3short1Feb 20, 2013Feb 20, 2013($8)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.